Roll Call: “As Democrats go hard left, Hispanics head to the center”

In yesterday’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston wrote about Hispanic voters and Democrats’ mistake in 2020 in assuming this group was a monolithic voting bloc and in sync with their priorities. Hispanic voters, he writes, will be in play for both parties next year.

What is becoming more and more evident is that Hispanic voters will be in play for both parties next year. Democrats have to stop assuming all minority voters, especially Hispanics, are on board the progressive train, nor will an effective GOTV effort assure victory.

Republicans have to understand that Hispanics, by and large, are not conservatives — at least not yet — but they are centrists behaving more like independents than Democrats and are open to a center-right economic message. If the party focuses on the economy and jobs, this is a growing voter group with the potential to become an important part of the Republican coalition.

Read the full piece here.

“Split Decision”: An analysis of the 2020 Presidential Election

Going into the 2020 November election, Joe Biden enjoyed a sizable lead, according to most media polling. Democrats believed the country was moving toward the left; and that, as a result, the political environment was also moving significantly in their direction. If they could tie Republican Congressional candidates in swing districts/states to Trump, while the electorate was moving left, Democrats believed they could pick up a significant number of seats in both the House and the Senate.

But while Biden was winning by more than 4% nationally, the general center-right nature of the electorate produced a temporary two seat advantage for Republicans in the Senate and a pickup of 12 seats in the House (14 overall from the 2018 election), and numerous state legislative wins. The “blue wave” had collapsed, and Republicans found themselves in a much stronger position than anyone anticipated.

Ultimately, 2020 was a two-tier election. Biden defeated Trump for the presidency, but results down ballot showed support for center-right ideas and governance. Overall, a split decision. 

This report is based on the Winning the Issues Election post-election survey of 1000 voters at the Congressional level and Edison Research exit polls. 

Read our full analysis here.

Roll Call: “Joe Manchin is a bona fide centrist. Deal with it”

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the centrism of Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

Manchin is a traditional Democrat, not a bomb thrower. He seeks out compromise to move the country forward and, unlike many of his fellow Democrats, uses reason and rationality to argue for his positions on issues, not race or moral shaming.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: “Independents will decide when Biden’s honeymoon is over”

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in this week’s Roll Call about how Biden’s policies are doing among independent voters.

Contrary to what the White House and corporate media are saying, on most issues, Republicans are not on board, and neither are independents.  The Biden team ought to remember that honeymoons don’t last forever, nor do voters’ patience or confidence.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: “Yes, I still believe in bipartisanship. No, I don’t believe in unicorns”

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about why bipartisan cooperation is still possible, even in today’s political environment.

The fact that Collins and Coons were able to recruit a majority of senators to stand fast for the filibuster shows that bipartisan cooperation is possible, even if it is on life support these days. And for those who complained to me that anyone who believes that Republicans and Democrats can work together to get things done must also believe in unicorns, we saw evidence last year that cooperation can still produce crucial legislation when the need is great.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: “A needed lesson in bipartisanship: The Civil Rights Act of 1964”

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and its lessons in bipartisanship that are still applicable today.

Beyond the rightness of the legislation, it was bipartisan unity that delivered the Civil Rights Act of 1964. No rules were changed to get it done. This transformational legislation wasn’t jammed through on a partisan vote. Quite the contrary.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: “As Democrats plot to overturn Iowa result, it’s déjà vu all over again”

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about Democrats’ ongoing attempt to oust Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa’s 2nd District, whose election was certified and who has been seated in Congress, and the similarities it bears to the situation in Indiana’s 8th Congressional District in the 1984 election cycle.

So what should Iowa voters expect when Nancy Pelosi’s nine-seat majority after the 2020 election meant that the Democratic majority on any vote could be upended by 5 switches? We know the answer. Reach back into the old playbook for Indiana’s 8th, and dust off the “rule” that says when Democrats are in the majority, even by a razor-thin margin, the House is empowered to supersede the will of the people when it is politically necessary. Translation: when Speaker Pelosi’s power is threatened.

Read the full piece here

Roll Call: “Biden’s progressive agenda doubles down on past policy failures”

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the $1.9 trillion COVID relief law, and how Democrats may have taken the wrong lesson from President Obama’s first two years in office:

Despite winning Congress and the White House by razor-thin margins, Democrats have decided to double down on Obama’s strategic mistake that cost his party the House in 2010. 

Their takeaway from Obama’s first two years isn’t that they lost the House because he put his progressive health care policy ahead of what people wanted: jobs. Instead, they appear to be laboring under the assumption that they may not get another chance to transform what is a center-right country into a progressive paradise. So let’s go big and, if we have to, use reconciliation or a change in the Senate rules to get it done.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: “Republicans can’t win the economic argument if they don’t make it in the first place”

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the strong argument in favor of Republican economic policies that the GOP could be making.

Instead of criticizing the positive economic report, Republicans ought to take credit for producing an economy so strong the country has been able to weather shutting down almost our entire economic system, not without pain, but with the power to rebound and quickly. But many Republicans seem ready and willing to cede the rebounding economy over to the Democrats.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: “For Joe Biden, unity is for Democrats only”

In this week’s column for Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston assesses how Biden’s actions so far are measuring up against his inauguration day promise of unity.

In the case of his unity promise, less than a majority — only 48 percent — said Biden has been working to promote unity. Thirty-eight percent said he was focused on his base. Only weeks into his presidency, his numbers on this question should be stronger.

Read the full piece here.