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Who Is The Candidate Of Change In 2024?

The 2024 presidential race will be a Biden-Trump rematch, but compared to today’s sour political climate, the 2020 election was a very different time for the country. We were still in the throes of COVID. The economy was central to the election, but the country was still trying to defeat the virus as closures continued and a vaccine wasn’t yet available. Combined with the protests during the summer, the stage was set for a more unifying positive candidate. Biden’s positive brand image (52-46 fav-unfav) made it easier for voters who didn’t like Trump (46-52 fav-unfav) to vote for him. Exit polls showed the economy was the strong suit for Trump, while Biden won among voters who prioritized the virus. Disruptive change wasn’t the priority it had been in 2016.

The contours of the 2024 election appear much closer to 2016 than 2020. In 2016, the country and economy were seen as on the wrong track. Both party nominees had high negatives, but Clinton had the attributes of the political old guard. Exit polls showed that the most important candidate quality in a choice of four was can bring needed change (39%) over other presidential attributes like has the right experience (22%), has good judgment (20%) and cares about people like me (15%). Among voters who identified can bring needed change as their most important candidate quality, Trump won decisively 82-14.

With the negative outlook on the country and economy similar to 2016, voters are looking for change again. In our survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25), we tested a series of candidate attributes and asked voters whether they applied more to Biden or Trump. On the attribute of can bring needed change, neither Biden nor Trump reached 50%, but Trump had a significant lead over Biden on this attribute (48-33).

Among voters who think the country is headed on the wrong track (67% of the electorate), they see Trump as the candidate of change 60-19. Trump voters view their candidate as the change agent by an overwhelming 93-1, with Republicans at a similar margin of 88-4. In contrast, only 65% of Democrats and 70% of Biden voters see their party’s nominee as the change candidate, with about 1 in 4 Democrats (24%) being undecided. Additionally, the numbers for Biden are very weak among a key part of the Democratic coalition — African-Americans — with only 40% identifying Biden as the change candidate (31-40) and 29% that do not know.

Among important swing groups, independents see Trump as the candidate of change by almost 2:1 (45-26), although Trump’s lead does not reach 50%. With independents being a group that Biden won by 13 in 2020, this result should concern the Biden team. Among young women 18-44, who the Biden campaign intends to target with an abortion message, only 31% say Biden is the candidate to bring needed change (39-31, 29% don’t know). The same trend is seen among millennial/Gen Z voters (43-33, 24% don’t know).

These numbers don’t represent vote intention, only perceptions on this attribute. But these results indicate a lukewarm view from the President’s own party about his ability to be the change agent the country needs. Given the second-term legislative mandate he seeks, the Biden campaign team should be alarmed.

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How Do Highly Educated Voters Vote?

One observation that has become commonplace in recent years when talking about changing partisan trends is that the Democratic Party is becoming the party of educated voters, while voters with less education are increasingly voting Republican.

How true is this analysis? To answer this question, we took a look at data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25). Voters were asked to characterize their typical voting behavior, from voting straight Republican to straight Democrat. Overall, the electorate is pretty evenly split, with 35% saying they vote straight or mostly Republican, 36% saying they vote straight or mostly Democrat, and 25% saying they slightly favor one party over another or that they split their ticket evenly.

Looking at the results by level of education shows a remarkable level of consistency.

  • Those who never attended college (19% of the 2020 Presidential electorate, 16% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 33-32 Republican-Democrat, with 28% saying they slightly favor one party or split their ticket evenly.
  • Those who attended college but received no degree (23% of the 2020 Presidential electorate; 27% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 37-38, with 21% indicating they split their ticket or only slightly favor one party.
  • Associate’s degree holders (16% of the 2020 Presidential electorate; 15% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 32-33, with 31% saying they slightly favor one party or split their ticket evenly. 
  • Bachelor’s degree holders, split 38-38, with 23% slightly favoring one party or splitting their ticket evenly. Voters with a bachelor’s degree accounted for about a quarter of the 2020 Presidential electorate (27%) and the 2022 Congressional electorate (25%).
  • Even voters with a postgraduate education say they only favor Democrats but only by a margin of 5 (32-37, 28% slightly favor one party/split ticket evenly). This group made up 15% of the 2020 Presidential electorate and 19% of the 2022 Congressional electorate. 

There is no education level that characterizes itself as overwhelmingly partisan, though those with graduate degrees have a slightly favor Democrats. Though it can be easy to reduce voting behavior to simple narratives, the data from this survey show that the reality is likely much more nuanced.

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Roll Call: Biden’s ‘Historic’ Results Aren’t What He Thinks

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston again tackles the credibility of the president’s economic messaging with voters.

The explanation for Biden’s dilemma isn’t complicated. Voters understand when and why the inflation crisis happened. On March 12, 2021, with all the fanfare of a royal progress, Biden and Hill Democrats rushed to the Rose Garden to celebrate the passage of their American Rescue Plan. The president told the crowd, “In the coming weeks … we’re going to be traveling the country to speak directly to the American people about how this law is going to make a real difference in their lives and how help is here for them.”

Biden was half right. In an ironic twist, the American Rescue Plan did make a real difference in the lives of all Americans. It kicked off what has been more than three years of historic and destructive inflation. Passage of this plan, with no Republican votes, was a perfect example of the law of unintended consequences in action.

Read the rest here.

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Does Education Matter in Views Of The Economy?

One of the challenges President Biden is facing heading into the November elections is convincing voters that the economy is going well. As David wrote in a recent column for Roll Call, many voters don’t buy the economic messaging coming from Biden and the White House. Some, like economist Paul Krugman, dismiss this reaction as partisan, chastising his readers, “don’t trust your feelings … Don’t dismiss the careful work of statistical agencies because you were feeling angry yesterday on the checkout line, or because you don’t like the current president.”

The White House is banking on the idea that as voters are exposed to positive economic news, they will give the President more credit. The Washington Post reported that “White House advisers are optimistic that the American public will soon internalize the good news and give the president credit before November.” Lael Brainard, chair of the National Economic Council, recently said, ”It does take consumers a while to kind of see data consistently, and see prices that have actually come down, to feel really confident about them.” 

Data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) suggest that voters have yet to “internalize the good news.” Voters overall have a negative outlook on the direction of the economy (26-61 right direction-wrong track), which is shared by voters with less than a four-year degree (21-67) and those with a four-year degree or more (34-53).

How are they making this determination? By an overwhelming margin, voters say they use the prices of items the regularly buy, such as groceries and gas, as a gauge for inflation (82%), dwarfing the share that says they use the CPI and other government statistics (13%). This approach transcends level of education, with 83% of those without a four-year degree (83-12) and 81% of those with a four-year degree or more (81-16) saying they rely on the prices of items they regularly buy over government statistics. 

The Biden campaign is counting on support from college educated voters, but even among these voters, they have significant work ahead. 

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Roll Call: “Biden’s State of the Union was beyond belief. Just ask voters”

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston discusses voter reaction to President Biden’s State of the Union address.

Some of the media, working off the same script, seemed to love Biden’s SOTU, praising the president’s atypical delivery, calling him feisty and fiery at every turn. But there is a fine line between feisty and angry. Biden crossed that line with his delivery, but more important than theatrics, Biden, as he has over the past year, tried to sell the same statements that a majority of voters don’t believe.

Read the rest here.

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Do Voters Connect Learning Loss and Grade Inflation?

Inspired by the headlines about elite colleges bringing back their standardized testing requirements (with Brown joining the list last week) we have been focused on issues related to tests and grade inflation. This week, we look at grade inflation through a slightly different lens, analyzing the extent to which voters connect grade inflation with pandemic-related learning loss. Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) suggests that, for many voters, grade inflation and learning loss are linked. 

Overall, when voters were asked where they think students currently are in their learning, given the school closures during the pandemic, 57% say they are at least somewhat behind (30% somewhat behind, 27% significantly behind). Another 27% said students are only slightly behind, with about 1 in 10 (11%) saying they are not behind at all. 

Though there has been some fall-off in the share of voters saying students are significantly behind, the current number is not far off from where it was in April 2023 when we asked the question last (29% significantly behind, 31% somewhat behind, 22% slightly behind, 9% about where they would normally have been). 

Views about the extent to which students are behind are somewhat related to views about grade inflation. Among those who say that students are significantly behind, 72% say that grade inflation is a widespread problem. But even among those who think students are doing just fine, only 16% say grade inflation is not a problem at all (26% widespread problem, 30% an isolated problem).

Only about 1 in 5 voters (19%) say both that grade inflation is a widespread problem and that students are significantly behind because of the pandemic. 

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Roll Call: “Trump’s next test: Go beyond the base”

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overrule the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Donald Trump from the state’s primary ballot, and some challenges from Trump going forward.

The exit polls also raised some important challenges for the Trump campaign going forward. The most obvious is the potential impact of the indictments. Voters were asked whether they would consider Trump fit to be president if convicted.

In North Carolina, 30 percent said no; in Virginia, it was worse, at 37 percent. This is not a new dynamic. We saw a similar response from South Carolina primary voters at 36 percent. Not surprisingly, in these three states, these voters overwhelmingly voted for Haley.

Read the rest here.

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How Widespread Is Grade Inflation?

A topic we have been keeping a close eye on in the last several months is standardized tests in college admissions.

A key reason many of the colleges chose to reinstate the testing requirement is that test scores tend to be better predictors of academic success than grades alone. It is likely that this stronger relationship for test scores than grades is at least partly due to grade inflation. 

But how big of a problem to voters think grade inflation is? Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) sheds some light. Overall, 47% of voters say that grade inflation in US high schools is “a widespread problem,” with 22% calling it “an isolated problem” and 6% saying it is not a problem at all. By party, a majority of Republicans (53%), nearly one in two independents (48%) and 40% of Democrats also call it a widespread problem. Among parents, 47% call it a widespread problem.

The shares calling it a widespread problem have grown at least slightly since we last asked the question about a year and a half ago. On the July 2022 survey, 40% of voters overall called it a widespread problem, as did 50% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats. Parents saw a larger growth in the share calling it a widespread problem, going from 39% to 47%. But the group with the largest growth was independents. In 2022, 33% called it a widespread problem, a 15-point difference from where they are presently (48%).

Clearly, voters are becoming more aware of an issue that has become an area of focus for education researchers. Our January 29 Emerging Issues newsletter looked at two recent studies showing a weakening relationship between grades and test scores since the pandemic. But grade inflation was an issue even before Covid. As the University of California faculty senate report, dated January 2020 found, “Grade inflation is part of why the predictive power of HSGPA [high school grade point average] has decreased since the last UC study.”

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2024 Republican Presidential Primary Through Third Debate

In past presidential elections, the Winston Group has analyzed the primary and general election debates to build a picture of how the topics covered interact with what voters have said — through surveys and exit polls — are their greatest concerns and the issues that are the most important for them in choosing for whom they will vote.

The following report continues our analysis for the Republican primary debates in anticipation of the general election next fall. This report covers the third Republican Primary Debate, hosted by NBC News on November 8, 2023. Topics covered include the distribution of issue topics in the debate questions, the number of questions asked of specific candidates, and candidate speaking times. 

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2024 Republican Presidential Primary First Debate

In past presidential elections, the Winston Group has analyzed the primary and general election debates to build a picture of how the topics covered interact with what voters have said — through surveys and exit polls — are their greatest concerns and the issues that are the most important for them in choosing for whom they will vote.

The following report continues our analysis for the Republican primary debates in anticipation of the general election next fall. This report covers the first Republican Primary Debate, hosted by Fox News on August 23, 2023. Topics covered include the distribution of issue topics in the debate questions, the number of questions asked of specific candidates, and candidate speaking times.

Read Report