Category: Our Work

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Inflation Fears Flare Again

Last week’s disappointing GDP news and uptick in a key inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have up-ended Wall Street hopes for an imminent rate cut. The news was also a major setback for the White House, which is desperate to put inflation behind them in time for the election. Reflecting what inflation reports have shown, the electorate has picked up on the warning signs of an inflation resurgence.

From our new survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29), there has been an increase in the percentage saying inflation is getting worse — now at 60% — rather than better (16%) or not changing (21%).

At the end of last year, numbers had improved slightly, with 24% saying inflation is getting better and 53% saying worse. But our current numbers show the highest percentage saying “worse” (60%) since September 2023. The last inflation reports have shown inflation remaining at or above 3% for ten months in a row. With the unexpected uptick in PCE, this has now caused a re-examination of the inflation situation as potentially rebounding.

Some like progressive economist Paul Krugman declared victory months ago, dismissing any remaining concerns about inflation as purely a function of partisanship. Our numbers show that Republicans (82% worse) and independents (61%) are overwhelmingly of the view that inflation is getting worse, but with even a plurality of Democrats (39%) seeing inflation as getting worse instead of better (30%).

With six months to go until the election, the White House has been eager to change voters’ minds about inflation improving thanks to the President’s policies, but our numbers show their views moving in the opposite direction.

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The Electorate’s Response To The Latest Wave Of Campus Protests

Over six months after the October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel, tensions on college campuses have flared again. The latest round followed the testimony of Columbia President Nemat Minouche Shafik in front of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce April 17. Protesters have staged sit-ins and other disruptive activity at colleges across the country, including Columbia.  Columbia ultimately canceled its in-person classes for the rest of the semester, and has canceled their graduation ceremonies.

Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) shed some light on how voters are thinking about and responding to the latest wave of protests. The brand image of colleges and universities has become more negative (53-34 favorable-unfavorable) compared to where it was in December (57-30) after the first Ed and Workforce hearing led to the resignation of two of the three university presidents called to testify. Among independents, less than a majority have a favorable view (46-39).

Ivy League universities (38-41) remain slightly negative (39-40 in December), with independents being more negative (32-45).

Among voters overall, only 19% say they approve of how colleges and universities have handled the demonstrations on campus (19-53 approve-disapprove). Among independents, that share shrinks to 12% (12-57).

Similarly, only 23% say they agree with the pro-Palestinian protests happening on college campuses (23-53 agree-disagree). Majorities of Republicans (10-69) and independents (19-54) say they disagree, while Democrats are split (38-36, 26% don’t know). Within the Democratic party, there are distinctions by age. Half of Democrats under 44 say they agree (50-29). But among Democrats 45 and older, only 29% say they agree, with 42% disagreeing and 30% saying they don’t know. 

Voters are clearly dissatisfied with what they have seen happening on campuses in the last few weeks, a continuation of what they would have observed last fall. What’s more, the dissatisfaction is not limited to Republicans. Independents are dissatisfied, too. 

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Inflation Pops Again

This week’s economic news was not good for the White House. On April 25, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the first quarter GDP increased only 1.6% according to their advance estimate. This was below the 2.4% expected estimate by economists surveyed by the WSJ. Additionally, the year over year Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose from 2.5% in February to 2.7% in March, mirroring the increase seen in the CPI as it went from 3.2% in February to 3.5% in March. Now there are concerns that inflation may be rebounding. This scenario means the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates higher for longer, dashing hopes for rate cuts that Wall Street desperately wants.

As we’ve been writing about for some time, our inflation tracking has clearly shown that this problem has not gone away. The latest report for March (3.5% year over year CPI) now makes ten months in a row that inflation has stayed at or above 3%. Our Presidential Inflation Rate tracking the cumulative rate of price increases since President Biden has
been in office has gone over the 19% mark for the first time (19.4%).

The economic narrative that the Biden campaign has been counting on has experienced a setback in the last couple of months. The tense situation in the Middle East is showing no signs of cooling off, posing other potential challenges on the horizon with gas prices and supply chains. From our tracking of Presidential Inflation Rates at the same point in administrations, gas prices have been a problem for the Biden team even before the October 7 attacks in Israel. The most recent inflation report shows an almost 50% (47.8%) increase in gas prices since the beginning of the Biden presidency.

This week’s news and the ongoing Middle East tension mean more tumultuous times may be ahead for the Biden team and that they may have to readjust their strategy on the issue of the economy.

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When Is A Student Ready For Algebra 2?

Grade inflation has been a frequent topic we have explored at length. Related to the topic of grade inflation is the concept of mastery. At what level of achievement is a student sufficiently ready to graduate to the next level of subject matter? And how does this level translate to numeric grades? 

On the February survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) we asked voters about a hypothetical student who received a 70% in Algebra 1. Was that student ready or not ready for Algebra 2? 

By a narrow margin, voters said that student was not ready, but this was not a majority view (41-45 ready-not ready). Both Republicans (43-43) and Democrats (43-44) are split in their views, while independents had a near majority say that student was not ready (36-48).

Younger voters (ages 18-34) had a majority say the student was ready (56-31 ready-not ready), while older voters (65+) had a majority say that student was not ready (33-54). Parents narrowly said the student was ready, but this was not a majority view (46-40).

There are differences on this question based on the level of concern about learning loss. Those who think students are significantly behind (27% of the electorate) say this student is not ready by a 19-point margin (34-53), while those who think students are about where they normally would have been absent the disruption of the pandemic hold the opposite view (52-32).

A grade of 70%, around a C, is typically considered a passing grade. Yet it is noteworthy that many voters did not think it indicated readiness for the next level of academic content. The question as to what does indicate readiness remains to be addressed. 

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Roll Call: ‘Unholy alliance’ – Congress needs to act as global crises threaten West

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the present national security challenges.

For the United States, the Biden administration and Congress, the challenge is not to respond to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as isolated situations — but act together to support a broader, comprehensive policy strong enough to take on what is an increasing threat to the country’s safety and security.

The impasse that has existed for months between the White House and the Congress, exacerbated by intraparty fights over Israel and Ukraine funding, must end. After last weekend’s attack, the consequences of continuing inaction are even more apparent.

Read the rest here.

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Elite Schools Get Failing Grades On Campus Antisemitism

Six months after the Hamas attacks in Israel and the controversy that rippled across college campuses in its aftermath, the Anti-Defamation League unveiled its first Campus Antisemitism Report Card. The report looks at 85 colleges and universities, which include schools with the highest levels of Jewish student enrollment as well as the country’s top liberal arts schools. Schools were assessed based on 21 criteria organized into three groups: administrative policies and actions, campus incidents, and Jewish life on campus. 

Of the 85 schools included in the first report card, 27% received a D for “deficient approach.” Another 15%, including schools such as Harvard and MIT received an F. (The University of Pennsylvania, the third school highlighted in the House Education and Workforce December 5 hearing on campus antisemitism, received a D.) Taken together, 42% of the schools received a D or worse in the ratings. 

About a third of the schools (34%) received a C grade, indicating “corrections needed.”  Another 21% received a B, indicating “better than most.” Only two received an A grade, indicating they were “ahead of the pack”: Brandeis University and Elon University. However, as the Report Card FAQs note, letter grades above an F should be interpreted with caution, and are not definitive conclusions as to whether campuses do or do not have antisemitism problems. Readers are encouraged to look at individual campus profiles for a fuller understanding of how each campus is doing. 

Columbia University, which earned a D in the report, will be the subject of another House Education and Workforce Committee hearing on antisemitism later this week. The school’s leaders will be testifying on Capitol Hill this Wednesday morning.

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What’s The Matter With Congress?

Congressional job approval is at historic lows with Gallup’s latest rating at a dismal 15-81 approve- disapprove. A recent survey of Congressional staff by the Congressional Management Foundation revealed significant frustration on Capitol Hill, but also a few bright spots.

1.) The desire for bipartisanship still exists. There was broad agreement among staff respondents that it is necessary for Senators and Representatives to collaborate across party lines to best meet the needs of the nation (97% agreed). About two-thirds (65%) strongly agreed. This agreement was bipartisan, with 98% of Republicans and 96% of Democrats agreeing. There is also agreement that it is necessary for staffers to collaborate across party lines for Congress to function effectively, with 98% agreeing with this statement (67% strongly agreed). Similar to views about Members, this view about staff was shared by Republicans (96% agreed) and Democrats (98% agreed).

Majorities of staff respondents recognized the importance of civility (76% very important) and bipartisanship (56% very important), but satisfaction with the current state of both is non-existent (1% very satisfied with current state of civility; 0% very satisfied with state of bipartisanship).

2.) The culture of Congress is not meeting the desire for bipartisanship and civility. A majority of respondents disagreed that it is easy for Senators and Representatives to build relationships across party lines (42-58 agree-disagree, with only 11% strongly agreeing with this statement.) Pessimism about building relationships was bipartisan, with 54% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats disagreeing.

With 51% agreeing that it is easy for staffers to build relationships across party lines, (51-49), this indicates a somewhat more positive outlook on staff relationships than Member relationships (42-58). However, staff from both sides felt that there were insufficient incentives for bipartisanship, with 73% disagreeing that there are strong incentives for staffers to collaborate across party lines (27-73 agree-disagree overall). Only 20% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats agreed that incentives for bipartisanship existed.

3.) There are some areas of improvement. In terms of improvements in legislative functionality, the study identified the work of the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress as the source. One example was an improvement in satisfaction with access to high quality, nonpartisan expertise in the legislative branch, going from 12% very satisfied in 2022 to 32% in 2023.

4.) Misplaced incentives were seen as a reason for dysfunction. A Republican chief of staff told CMF: “The whole place is broken and the incentive structures no longer match the proper functions of a democratic republic.” A Democratic staffer echoed those same frustrations: “The political incentives are increasingly divorced from policy. Tribalism and cults of personality value symbolic goods for leaders rather than material outcomes for the people.” The study showed the importance of time and resources devoted to policy (97% found it important that Members have adequate time and resources to understand, consider and deliberate policy and legislation.) But only a third of respondents (32%) were satisfied that the needed time and resources existed.

For advocates who are not content with the status quo in Congress, the study seems to highlight three areas for constructive engagement: improving incentives around policy and less on personality; promoting the building of relationships; and celebrating successes to build momentum for more wins. The study shows there is interest in bipartisan cooperation and getting things done, but the day-to-day fires in Congress perpetuate the culture of dysfunction. As we found in 2016 research for Congressional Institute, people thought that positive things may be happening in Congress, but they didn’t hear about it. An independent voter said in our listening sessions, “We really don’t know what’s going on up there. And I’m sure they’ve passed legislation. I just don’t think we’ve heard about it.” It will take changing the current incentive structure to impact the status quo in the way Congress operates.

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Roll Call: The price of hyper-partisanship: Confidence in elections undermined

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes covers hyper-partisanship and voter confidence in elections.

Questioning the outcome of an election isn’t illegal or even inappropriate up to a point. Politicians have stretched the truth since time immemorial. But when lying to the electorate for political gain begins to threaten the stability of our democratic system and the future of the republic, both sides need to step back from what may be a tipping point of no return.

Read the rest here.

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Biden’s Inflation Streak Continues

The Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2024 Consumer Price Index was released this morning, and came in at a higher than expected year over year rate of 3.5%. This was the 36th month in a row of a 3% or higher inflation rate starting the month after the American Rescue Plan was signed into law. Today’s report almost guarantees the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates longer than Wall Street hoped.

Under President Biden, prices have risen 19.4% since he was inaugurated. Contrasting him with the seven prior presidents at the same point in their presidencies, only Carter (36.9%) had a larger increase. The same is true for food where Biden has seen a 21.1% increase in food prices, surpassed only by Carter (34.9%).

While there have been claims about how much gas prices have come down, in looking at the totality of Biden’s tenure, prices have gone up 47.8%. But in this category, two presidents have come in higher: Obama (113.5%) and Carter (104.6%).

For those that have moved to electric vehicles, the cost of electricity has increased as well.
Since Biden’s inauguration, electricity prices have gone up 29.3%. No matter the type of car or truck you might own, the cost to operate it has increased dramatically.

Finally, a critical contrast is that since Biden’s inauguration, weekly wages have increased 14.2%, meaning that wages trail inflation by 5.2%. At the same point in time for under Trump, weekly wages had increased 9.4%, meaning wages had outpaced inflation by 3.1%.

With only seven months to go before the election, today’s inflation report was not good news for the White House. The data indicates there is more work to be done to put inflation behind us.

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How Concerned Are Parents About Students Missing School?

Though learning loss has been a major point of discussion post-pandemic, an equally important topic is chronic absenteeism. Almost 30% of students were chronically absent in the 2021-22 school year, meaning they missed 10%, or 18 days, of the year. There were only slight improvements for 2022-23, according to preliminary data as of last fall. Based on estimates from the American Enterprise Institute, which looked at available data from 38 states and DC, 26% of students were chronically absent last year, up from 15% pre-pandemic. The trend cuts across demographics. In a “Dear Colleague” letter dated March 22, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wrote to state education leaders asking them to “continue the hard work of re-engaging students.” 

As with learning loss, the question on the minds of researchers is how concerned — or even aware — are parents about chronic absenteeism? A recent report from The Brookings Institution, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of K-12 parents and caretakers, sheds some light while also raising more questions. Among their findings:

Parents and caretakers either underestimate or underreport their child’s absences relative to what the data show is really happening. Overall, they found about 15% of caretakers reporting their child missed 6 days or more in fall 2023 and were likely on track to be chronically absent. Within this group, about a third said their child had missed more than 10 days. “These percentages,” the researchers write, “are substantially lower than the rates found in hard data about chronic absenteeism (which in some states has been reported to be twice as high as what parents are reporting).”  

Few parents and caretakers report being concerned about their child’s absences, even those with children at risk of being chronically absent. Overall, 8% of parents and caretakers describe themselves as being concerned about their child’s absences. Among those with children at risk of being chronically absent, less than half describe themselves as concerned.

The research explored a few potential reasons parents and caretakers might report lower levels of concern, including the availability of coursework and school materials online. About a third (32%) of parents and caretakers say they “aren’t worried about their child missing school because everything the child needs to know is available online.” Among those whose children missed at least 6 days, another third (33%) “believe it is okay for students to work from home if they want.”

These findings are reminiscent of the takeaways from recent Learning Heroes research about parent perceptions of student academic success (described by Learning Heroes co-founder Cindi Williams in her recent Tedx Talk). In that research, parents also reported that their children are at grade level much more frequently than the data tells us is true. The key difference is the level of concern. From the Learning Heroes research, parents who know their children are not at grade level report being worried about their children’s academic skills. But for chronic absenteeism, even parents who report their children missing an elevated number of days are not overly concerned, and a third think it is acceptable for students to work from home if they want. 

Chronic absenteeism is also impeding learning loss recovery; students can’t recover if they aren’t in school. Studies have shown that elevated levels of chronic absenteeism can even have negative effects on students who are still going to school.