Category: Our Work

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Education Level and the View of Biden’s Economic Performance

One of the key areas of concern for the Biden administration heading to the election this fall is inflation. Axios reported yesterday that the White House released a memo on inflation, detailing what it is doing to help address rising costs. “It’s an attempt,” as Axios says, “to tell Americans that the White House is focused on bringing prices down at a time when voters are unhappy with the economy, and hold the president responsible for inflation.”

As we’ve written before, some commentators have tried to dismiss the muted economic outlook as partisan, though data shows it’s not just Republicans who are down on the economy and unhappy with the way Biden has handled it. But are there differences for voters of varying levels of education? Trending data from Winning the Issues going back to the first month of Biden’s presidency (February 2021) allows us to look at this question over time and in the context of other economic events.

In the beginning, voters of all levels of education approved of the way Biden was handling the economy, though voters with a postgraduate education were clearly the most approving (69%  approve), compared to those with a bachelor’s degree (56%), or those with at most an associate’s degree or some college experience (51%). At that time, the CPI was 1.7%. 

Following that point, however, we can observe a steady decline in the percent saying they approved of the way Biden was handling the economy, especially among those without a bachelor’s degree. Those with a bachelor’s degree remained moderately positive until October of 2021 (48% approve), the first time that less than a majority of this group said they approved of how Biden was doing.

Those with a postgraduate education remained more or less very positive until early 2022. But in July 2022, each group reached their low point of job approval (30% approve among those with less than a bachelor’s degree, 35% among those with a bachelor’s degree, 38% among those with a postgraduate education). The month before, inflation had peaked at 9.1%.

Since then, generally speaking, voters with a postgraduate education have tracked more closely with those who have bachelor’s degrees, and none of the three groups have had more than 50% approve of Biden’s job on the economy since April 2022. In other words, voters’ views of the president on the economy, while still negative, have reached an equilibrium over the last several months. This is in keeping with the CPI. After its peak in June 2022, inflation eased somewhat, reaching 3% in June 2023. But it hasn’t moved much since, marking 11 consecutive months of 3% or more inflation since the apparent moderation last June. Overall, inflation has been at or above 3% for 37 consecutive months.

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Three Things To Know About The New Inflation Report

This week’s new inflation report (3.4%) showed inflation not going in the wrong direction but not getting much better.

2.) Other household items have gone up significantly. Gas has increased over 50% since the beginning of his term (55.5%). Food is up 21.3% and electricity at 28.5%.

3.) The gap between wages and inflation has widened since last month. The cumulative inflation rate (19.9%) versus the cumulative increase in wages (14.1%) is 5.8%, compared to 5.2% in last month’s report.

After the new inflation numbers were released, the White House claimed that there were many inflationary factors in the economy in play when President Biden took office. Yet after the CARES Act was signed on March 27, 2020, inflation was less than 2% for 11 consecutive months, which extended into Biden’s term. In February 2021, it was at 1.7%. After President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan into law in March 2021, inflation jumped from 2.6% to 4.2% in April which started the current 37 month streak of inflation being over 3%.

Some Democratic strategists have advised the President to show more empathy on economic issues, but given the results of these inflation reports, voters are seeking relief from price increases rather than empathy alone. 

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Roll Call: Biden and Trump: We can’t possibly lose to this guy

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the importance of independents in the upcoming election — specifically independents who do not have a favorable view of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

The key question is how this important voter group will decide given that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have unfavorables of almost 60 percent. Among independents, it is almost 70 percent, according to the latest Winning the Issues survey (April 27–29). 

Twenty-two percent of the electorate has an unfavorable view of both, higher than the 2016 election exit polls, when 18 percent had an unfavorable view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Among independents, 41 percent are unfavorable to both candidates, up from 27 percent in 2016 exit polls. 

At 41 percent, given that independents made up 26 percent of voters at the presidential level in 2020, it could represent around 11 percent of the electorate in 2024. This means the election could be decided by voters who are unfavorable to both candidates. 

Read the full piece here.

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Another Round Of Concerning Inflation News

This morning’s new inflation numbers confirm the trend we’ve been seeing the past couple of months, that inflation continues to hover well above 3%. Our trending chart shows year-over- year inflation coming in at 3.4% and with the new Presidential Inflation Rate ticking up to 19.9% — almost a 20% cumulative price increase since Biden took office. Today’s report means 11 months in a row of inflation staying at or above 3%. Additionally, it reflects that since December, prices have risen 2.6%. In contrast over the same time period, weekly wages have increased only 1%.

Earlier this week, prior to the new report, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he is taking a wait-and-see approach: 

“We did not expect this to be a smooth road, but these were higher than I think anybody expected…We’re just going to have to see where the inflation data fall out.”

With the clock ticking down to the election, this is not the news the White House wants, nor is it where they expected to be at this point. This report complicates the Biden team’s economic narrative that the President’s policies are working.

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Are Grades or Test Scores The Best Indicator Of Student Knowledge?

In February, we took a look at the belief statement Grades are the best indicator of a student’s knowledge and skill level. Overall, voters did not believe it (36-55) and neither did parents (36-57). This week, we look at data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) that asked voters to choose whether classroom grades or standardized test scores were the best indicator of a high school student’s knowledge and skill. 

While neither option had a majority, voters overall said classroom grades by a margin of +11 (48-37). Parents were among the groups most likely to say classroom grades were the best indicator (56-35, +21). While non-parents also tended to say that grades were better than test scores, it was only by a margin of 8 (45-37). 

Of note, while both African American and Hispanic voters each had nearly one in two prefer classroom grades to test scores, the margins among these groups were smaller compared to voters overall and parents (+6 grades among African Americans; +5 among Hispanics).

Also of note, those who thought a 70% in Algebra 1 indicated readiness for Algebra 2 (42% of the electorate) preferred classroom grades by a margin of 17 (54-37). On the other hand, among the 43% who said a 70% did not indicate readiness, the margin between grades and test scores was only 6 (46-40).

This research joins a larger body of research showing parents rely more on classroom grades than test scores, most notably that of Learning Heroes released at the end of last year. However, it also shows that voters overall — including non-parents — agree that grades are better than test scores. Voters may not believe that grades are the best indicator of student knowledge absolutely, but when the alternative is test scores as currently defined, they tend to prefer the grades.

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Afghanistan: The Watershed Moment For Biden Job Approval

In the leadup to Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel, President Biden said that US support for Israel was “iron clad.” But as Israel is ready to move forward to defeat Hamas in Rafah, the last stronghold of Hamas, the President is threatening to halt weapons shipments if they proceed. This announcement comes as US citizens are being held hostage.

Our latest numbers for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) showed that even before this week’s announcement, the president’s job approval on foreign policy (35-55 approve-disapprove) was struggling at the same scale as his overall job approval (38-55) and economic job approval (37-56). Disapproval with his handling of foreign policy is not limited to Republicans; independents disapprove of by more than 2:1 (26-63).

The impact of the administration’s decision may impede Israel’s ability to defeat Hamas, with parallels being drawn with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. From our trending of Biden job approval, the Afghanistan withdrawal was a watershed moment. As shown in the trend chart, this was the moment in which his job approval took a hit from which it has never recovered.

His job approval went from 52-40 in July 2021 — prior to the Afghanistan withdrawal — to 46-44 in September 2021. His job approval was declining prior to Afghanistan, but was still in positive territory. But from that point forward, his job approval deteriorated. Other factors like skyrocketing inflation locked in the disapproval in the months after that, with disapproval going over 50% in May 2022. However, the breaking point in his job approval can be traced back to Afghanistan.

Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone.” History will judge the impact of the administration’s decision, but it is likely to further embolden our adversaries and cause allies to question the depth of America’s resolve.

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Roll Call: How voters are responding to the latest campus protests

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about how voters are viewing the latest wave of campus protests.

the reaction to how colleges handled the situation satisfied neither those agreeing nor those disagreeing [with the protests]. Voters who approved of the protests broke even on the handling of the protests, with 40 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Those who disapproved of the protests had a significantly higher disapproval (12 percent/71 percent).

Read the rest here.

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When Has A Student Mastered Algebra 1?

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at whether parents and voters thought that a 70% in Algebra 1 indicated readiness for Algebra 2. On an earlier survey for Winning the Issues, voters had previously said a 70% in Algebra 1 did not indicate readiness for Algebra 2, but by a narrow margin (41-45 ready-not ready). This week, we look again at the topic, and also an additional potential threshold for academic readiness.

On the April survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29), we again asked voters whether a hypothetical student who received a 70% in Algebra 1 would be ready for Algebra 2. This time, virtually the same share of voters said students would be ready (42-43 ready-not ready). Parents narrowly said that student was ready (48-45). Non-parents resembled the overall electorate. 

As we observed in the last survey, it is notable that many voters do not think a 70% indicates readiness for the next academic level, even if it is typically considered passing. For this survey, we included another question: was a student earning an 80% ready for Algebra 2?

The share saying that a student with an 80% would be ready for Algebra 2 shot up by 41 points (83-10 ready-not ready). Among non-parents, it also increased by 41 points (81-10). Among parents, it increased by 39 points (87-9).

Overall, 80% was clearly a more acceptable threshold and indicator of readiness for the next subject level. Simply getting a passing grade was not seen as enough. The electorate seems to expect some level of mastery beyond the binary pass/fail. Agreement that a student with an 80% was ready for Algebra 2 held across other groups, including age and partisan groups. There are two questions that remain. First, why is a 70% a more acceptable threshold for some than it is for others? And second, what knowledge does a student with an 80% in Algebra 1 have that a student with a 70% does not?

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The Age Of Emboldened Adversaries

On April 11, FBI Director Christopher Wray told the House Appropriations Committee: 

…We’ve seen the threat from foreign terrorists rise to a whole ‘nother level after October 7…Looking back over my career in law enforcement, I’d be hard pressed to think of a time where so many threats to our public safety and national security were so elevated all at once. 

Two days after Wray’s testimony, Iran made its first-ever direct attack on Israel. Iran has joined what some have termed an “unholy alliance” with Russia and China to support Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine and China’s expansionist policies across the globe.

Here at home, the anti-semitic, pro-Hamas protests in US universities are unlike anything we have seen in our country, as students are making explicit pro-terrorist statements and calling for annihilation of Israel and Jews. The situation at the US border grows more alarming as the numbers of unknown entrants, many from countries with terrorist ties, have been on the rise. These events abroad and at home indicate the US has entered a new era of emboldened adversaries.

Reflecting the FBI Director’s statement, voters are recognizing the increasing global threats we face. From a new survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29, 1000 registered voters), a majority of voters (56%) believes that the US is facing the highest level of terrorist threats to public safety in decades (56-27 believe-do not believe). In terms of the campus protests we are seeing in universities like Columbia and Harvard, some have tried to dismiss their seriousness as comparable to campus protests of the 1960s. But our research shows that voters see the current protests as much more threatening to other students than protest movements of the past (47%), rather than similar to Vietnam War protests (40%).

Since the beginning of the year, we have seen an increase in the percentage of voters believing that America’s adversaries have been emboldened as a result of its standing in the world being weakened (55-19 believe-do not believe in late April, up from 51-25 in February). This belief system is not unique to Republicans who believe this by a very large margin (64-10), with 70% of conservative Republicans believing this. Independents (56-19) and a plurality of Democrats (45-28) also take this view.

This sense of weakened international standing goes back to the Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. The president’s job approval on foreign policy (35-55 approve-disapprove) struggles at the same scale as his overall job approval (38-55) and economic job approval (37-56). Disapproval with his handling of foreign policy is not isolated to Republicans; independents disapprove of his handling of foreign policy by more than 2:1 (26-63).

Events of recent months have demonstrated that the threats from Iran, China, Hamas and Russia are no longer isolated incidents; they are interconnected with global implications. Two-thirds of the electorate (67%) see the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as conflicts with global implications rather than isolated wars (23%), and this view is consistent across party.

In this new era of seeing old adversaries act in unprecedented ways, America must rise to the occasion.

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Roll Call: Biden takes aim at Trump-era tax cuts — and his own campaign promise

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about President Biden’s recent promise to let the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire.

Biden didn’t just violate his pledge to not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000; he shattered it with his boast to the union crowd. 

And, according to House Ways and Means Committee Republicans, if Congress fails to extend the Trump-era tax cuts, it means an average American family of four making $75,000 will get hit with a $1,500 tax increase. “Main Street businesses will face a 43.4 percent tax rate” and “working parents will suffer from a Child Tax Credit slashed in half” along with the standard deduction every taxpayer is due.

Contrary to what Biden and his supporters would have us believe, most Americans got a tax cut thanks to the 2017 law, which Biden loves to demonize. Biden has been peddling disinformation on the 2017 tax cuts for years. When running for president in 2019, Biden said, “There’s a $2 trillion tax cut last year. Did you feel it? Did you get anything from it? Of course not. Of course not. All of it went to folks at the top and corporations.” 

Read the rest here.