Category: Our Work

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Roll Call: ‘Unholy alliance’ – Congress needs to act as global crises threaten West

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the present national security challenges.

For the United States, the Biden administration and Congress, the challenge is not to respond to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as isolated situations — but act together to support a broader, comprehensive policy strong enough to take on what is an increasing threat to the country’s safety and security.

The impasse that has existed for months between the White House and the Congress, exacerbated by intraparty fights over Israel and Ukraine funding, must end. After last weekend’s attack, the consequences of continuing inaction are even more apparent.

Read the rest here.

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Elite Schools Get Failing Grades On Campus Antisemitism

Six months after the Hamas attacks in Israel and the controversy that rippled across college campuses in its aftermath, the Anti-Defamation League unveiled its first Campus Antisemitism Report Card. The report looks at 85 colleges and universities, which include schools with the highest levels of Jewish student enrollment as well as the country’s top liberal arts schools. Schools were assessed based on 21 criteria organized into three groups: administrative policies and actions, campus incidents, and Jewish life on campus. 

Of the 85 schools included in the first report card, 27% received a D for “deficient approach.” Another 15%, including schools such as Harvard and MIT received an F. (The University of Pennsylvania, the third school highlighted in the House Education and Workforce December 5 hearing on campus antisemitism, received a D.) Taken together, 42% of the schools received a D or worse in the ratings. 

About a third of the schools (34%) received a C grade, indicating “corrections needed.”  Another 21% received a B, indicating “better than most.” Only two received an A grade, indicating they were “ahead of the pack”: Brandeis University and Elon University. However, as the Report Card FAQs note, letter grades above an F should be interpreted with caution, and are not definitive conclusions as to whether campuses do or do not have antisemitism problems. Readers are encouraged to look at individual campus profiles for a fuller understanding of how each campus is doing. 

Columbia University, which earned a D in the report, will be the subject of another House Education and Workforce Committee hearing on antisemitism later this week. The school’s leaders will be testifying on Capitol Hill this Wednesday morning.

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What’s The Matter With Congress?

Congressional job approval is at historic lows with Gallup’s latest rating at a dismal 15-81 approve- disapprove. A recent survey of Congressional staff by the Congressional Management Foundation revealed significant frustration on Capitol Hill, but also a few bright spots.

1.) The desire for bipartisanship still exists. There was broad agreement among staff respondents that it is necessary for Senators and Representatives to collaborate across party lines to best meet the needs of the nation (97% agreed). About two-thirds (65%) strongly agreed. This agreement was bipartisan, with 98% of Republicans and 96% of Democrats agreeing. There is also agreement that it is necessary for staffers to collaborate across party lines for Congress to function effectively, with 98% agreeing with this statement (67% strongly agreed). Similar to views about Members, this view about staff was shared by Republicans (96% agreed) and Democrats (98% agreed).

Majorities of staff respondents recognized the importance of civility (76% very important) and bipartisanship (56% very important), but satisfaction with the current state of both is non-existent (1% very satisfied with current state of civility; 0% very satisfied with state of bipartisanship).

2.) The culture of Congress is not meeting the desire for bipartisanship and civility. A majority of respondents disagreed that it is easy for Senators and Representatives to build relationships across party lines (42-58 agree-disagree, with only 11% strongly agreeing with this statement.) Pessimism about building relationships was bipartisan, with 54% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats disagreeing.

With 51% agreeing that it is easy for staffers to build relationships across party lines, (51-49), this indicates a somewhat more positive outlook on staff relationships than Member relationships (42-58). However, staff from both sides felt that there were insufficient incentives for bipartisanship, with 73% disagreeing that there are strong incentives for staffers to collaborate across party lines (27-73 agree-disagree overall). Only 20% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats agreed that incentives for bipartisanship existed.

3.) There are some areas of improvement. In terms of improvements in legislative functionality, the study identified the work of the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress as the source. One example was an improvement in satisfaction with access to high quality, nonpartisan expertise in the legislative branch, going from 12% very satisfied in 2022 to 32% in 2023.

4.) Misplaced incentives were seen as a reason for dysfunction. A Republican chief of staff told CMF: “The whole place is broken and the incentive structures no longer match the proper functions of a democratic republic.” A Democratic staffer echoed those same frustrations: “The political incentives are increasingly divorced from policy. Tribalism and cults of personality value symbolic goods for leaders rather than material outcomes for the people.” The study showed the importance of time and resources devoted to policy (97% found it important that Members have adequate time and resources to understand, consider and deliberate policy and legislation.) But only a third of respondents (32%) were satisfied that the needed time and resources existed.

For advocates who are not content with the status quo in Congress, the study seems to highlight three areas for constructive engagement: improving incentives around policy and less on personality; promoting the building of relationships; and celebrating successes to build momentum for more wins. The study shows there is interest in bipartisan cooperation and getting things done, but the day-to-day fires in Congress perpetuate the culture of dysfunction. As we found in 2016 research for Congressional Institute, people thought that positive things may be happening in Congress, but they didn’t hear about it. An independent voter said in our listening sessions, “We really don’t know what’s going on up there. And I’m sure they’ve passed legislation. I just don’t think we’ve heard about it.” It will take changing the current incentive structure to impact the status quo in the way Congress operates.

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Roll Call: The price of hyper-partisanship: Confidence in elections undermined

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes covers hyper-partisanship and voter confidence in elections.

Questioning the outcome of an election isn’t illegal or even inappropriate up to a point. Politicians have stretched the truth since time immemorial. But when lying to the electorate for political gain begins to threaten the stability of our democratic system and the future of the republic, both sides need to step back from what may be a tipping point of no return.

Read the rest here.

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Biden’s Inflation Streak Continues

The Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2024 Consumer Price Index was released this morning, and came in at a higher than expected year over year rate of 3.5%. This was the 36th month in a row of a 3% or higher inflation rate starting the month after the American Rescue Plan was signed into law. Today’s report almost guarantees the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates longer than Wall Street hoped.

Under President Biden, prices have risen 19.4% since he was inaugurated. Contrasting him with the seven prior presidents at the same point in their presidencies, only Carter (36.9%) had a larger increase. The same is true for food where Biden has seen a 21.1% increase in food prices, surpassed only by Carter (34.9%).

While there have been claims about how much gas prices have come down, in looking at the totality of Biden’s tenure, prices have gone up 47.8%. But in this category, two presidents have come in higher: Obama (113.5%) and Carter (104.6%).

For those that have moved to electric vehicles, the cost of electricity has increased as well.
Since Biden’s inauguration, electricity prices have gone up 29.3%. No matter the type of car or truck you might own, the cost to operate it has increased dramatically.

Finally, a critical contrast is that since Biden’s inauguration, weekly wages have increased 14.2%, meaning that wages trail inflation by 5.2%. At the same point in time for under Trump, weekly wages had increased 9.4%, meaning wages had outpaced inflation by 3.1%.

With only seven months to go before the election, today’s inflation report was not good news for the White House. The data indicates there is more work to be done to put inflation behind us.

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How Concerned Are Parents About Students Missing School?

Though learning loss has been a major point of discussion post-pandemic, an equally important topic is chronic absenteeism. Almost 30% of students were chronically absent in the 2021-22 school year, meaning they missed 10%, or 18 days, of the year. There were only slight improvements for 2022-23, according to preliminary data as of last fall. Based on estimates from the American Enterprise Institute, which looked at available data from 38 states and DC, 26% of students were chronically absent last year, up from 15% pre-pandemic. The trend cuts across demographics. In a “Dear Colleague” letter dated March 22, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wrote to state education leaders asking them to “continue the hard work of re-engaging students.” 

As with learning loss, the question on the minds of researchers is how concerned — or even aware — are parents about chronic absenteeism? A recent report from The Brookings Institution, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of K-12 parents and caretakers, sheds some light while also raising more questions. Among their findings:

Parents and caretakers either underestimate or underreport their child’s absences relative to what the data show is really happening. Overall, they found about 15% of caretakers reporting their child missed 6 days or more in fall 2023 and were likely on track to be chronically absent. Within this group, about a third said their child had missed more than 10 days. “These percentages,” the researchers write, “are substantially lower than the rates found in hard data about chronic absenteeism (which in some states has been reported to be twice as high as what parents are reporting).”  

Few parents and caretakers report being concerned about their child’s absences, even those with children at risk of being chronically absent. Overall, 8% of parents and caretakers describe themselves as being concerned about their child’s absences. Among those with children at risk of being chronically absent, less than half describe themselves as concerned.

The research explored a few potential reasons parents and caretakers might report lower levels of concern, including the availability of coursework and school materials online. About a third (32%) of parents and caretakers say they “aren’t worried about their child missing school because everything the child needs to know is available online.” Among those whose children missed at least 6 days, another third (33%) “believe it is okay for students to work from home if they want.”

These findings are reminiscent of the takeaways from recent Learning Heroes research about parent perceptions of student academic success (described by Learning Heroes co-founder Cindi Williams in her recent Tedx Talk). In that research, parents also reported that their children are at grade level much more frequently than the data tells us is true. The key difference is the level of concern. From the Learning Heroes research, parents who know their children are not at grade level report being worried about their children’s academic skills. But for chronic absenteeism, even parents who report their children missing an elevated number of days are not overly concerned, and a third think it is acceptable for students to work from home if they want. 

Chronic absenteeism is also impeding learning loss recovery; students can’t recover if they aren’t in school. Studies have shown that elevated levels of chronic absenteeism can even have negative effects on students who are still going to school.

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Who Is The Candidate Of Change In 2024?

The 2024 presidential race will be a Biden-Trump rematch, but compared to today’s sour political climate, the 2020 election was a very different time for the country. We were still in the throes of COVID. The economy was central to the election, but the country was still trying to defeat the virus as closures continued and a vaccine wasn’t yet available. Combined with the protests during the summer, the stage was set for a more unifying positive candidate. Biden’s positive brand image (52-46 fav-unfav) made it easier for voters who didn’t like Trump (46-52 fav-unfav) to vote for him. Exit polls showed the economy was the strong suit for Trump, while Biden won among voters who prioritized the virus. Disruptive change wasn’t the priority it had been in 2016.

The contours of the 2024 election appear much closer to 2016 than 2020. In 2016, the country and economy were seen as on the wrong track. Both party nominees had high negatives, but Clinton had the attributes of the political old guard. Exit polls showed that the most important candidate quality in a choice of four was can bring needed change (39%) over other presidential attributes like has the right experience (22%), has good judgment (20%) and cares about people like me (15%). Among voters who identified can bring needed change as their most important candidate quality, Trump won decisively 82-14.

With the negative outlook on the country and economy similar to 2016, voters are looking for change again. In our survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25), we tested a series of candidate attributes and asked voters whether they applied more to Biden or Trump. On the attribute of can bring needed change, neither Biden nor Trump reached 50%, but Trump had a significant lead over Biden on this attribute (48-33).

Among voters who think the country is headed on the wrong track (67% of the electorate), they see Trump as the candidate of change 60-19. Trump voters view their candidate as the change agent by an overwhelming 93-1, with Republicans at a similar margin of 88-4. In contrast, only 65% of Democrats and 70% of Biden voters see their party’s nominee as the change candidate, with about 1 in 4 Democrats (24%) being undecided. Additionally, the numbers for Biden are very weak among a key part of the Democratic coalition — African-Americans — with only 40% identifying Biden as the change candidate (31-40) and 29% that do not know.

Among important swing groups, independents see Trump as the candidate of change by almost 2:1 (45-26), although Trump’s lead does not reach 50%. With independents being a group that Biden won by 13 in 2020, this result should concern the Biden team. Among young women 18-44, who the Biden campaign intends to target with an abortion message, only 31% say Biden is the candidate to bring needed change (39-31, 29% don’t know). The same trend is seen among millennial/Gen Z voters (43-33, 24% don’t know).

These numbers don’t represent vote intention, only perceptions on this attribute. But these results indicate a lukewarm view from the President’s own party about his ability to be the change agent the country needs. Given the second-term legislative mandate he seeks, the Biden campaign team should be alarmed.

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How Do Highly Educated Voters Vote?

One observation that has become commonplace in recent years when talking about changing partisan trends is that the Democratic Party is becoming the party of educated voters, while voters with less education are increasingly voting Republican.

How true is this analysis? To answer this question, we took a look at data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25). Voters were asked to characterize their typical voting behavior, from voting straight Republican to straight Democrat. Overall, the electorate is pretty evenly split, with 35% saying they vote straight or mostly Republican, 36% saying they vote straight or mostly Democrat, and 25% saying they slightly favor one party over another or that they split their ticket evenly.

Looking at the results by level of education shows a remarkable level of consistency.

  • Those who never attended college (19% of the 2020 Presidential electorate, 16% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 33-32 Republican-Democrat, with 28% saying they slightly favor one party or split their ticket evenly.
  • Those who attended college but received no degree (23% of the 2020 Presidential electorate; 27% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 37-38, with 21% indicating they split their ticket or only slightly favor one party.
  • Associate’s degree holders (16% of the 2020 Presidential electorate; 15% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 32-33, with 31% saying they slightly favor one party or split their ticket evenly. 
  • Bachelor’s degree holders, split 38-38, with 23% slightly favoring one party or splitting their ticket evenly. Voters with a bachelor’s degree accounted for about a quarter of the 2020 Presidential electorate (27%) and the 2022 Congressional electorate (25%).
  • Even voters with a postgraduate education say they only favor Democrats but only by a margin of 5 (32-37, 28% slightly favor one party/split ticket evenly). This group made up 15% of the 2020 Presidential electorate and 19% of the 2022 Congressional electorate. 

There is no education level that characterizes itself as overwhelmingly partisan, though those with graduate degrees have a slightly favor Democrats. Though it can be easy to reduce voting behavior to simple narratives, the data from this survey show that the reality is likely much more nuanced.

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Roll Call: Biden’s ‘Historic’ Results Aren’t What He Thinks

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston again tackles the credibility of the president’s economic messaging with voters.

The explanation for Biden’s dilemma isn’t complicated. Voters understand when and why the inflation crisis happened. On March 12, 2021, with all the fanfare of a royal progress, Biden and Hill Democrats rushed to the Rose Garden to celebrate the passage of their American Rescue Plan. The president told the crowd, “In the coming weeks … we’re going to be traveling the country to speak directly to the American people about how this law is going to make a real difference in their lives and how help is here for them.”

Biden was half right. In an ironic twist, the American Rescue Plan did make a real difference in the lives of all Americans. It kicked off what has been more than three years of historic and destructive inflation. Passage of this plan, with no Republican votes, was a perfect example of the law of unintended consequences in action.

Read the rest here.

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Does Education Matter in Views Of The Economy?

One of the challenges President Biden is facing heading into the November elections is convincing voters that the economy is going well. As David wrote in a recent column for Roll Call, many voters don’t buy the economic messaging coming from Biden and the White House. Some, like economist Paul Krugman, dismiss this reaction as partisan, chastising his readers, “don’t trust your feelings … Don’t dismiss the careful work of statistical agencies because you were feeling angry yesterday on the checkout line, or because you don’t like the current president.”

The White House is banking on the idea that as voters are exposed to positive economic news, they will give the President more credit. The Washington Post reported that “White House advisers are optimistic that the American public will soon internalize the good news and give the president credit before November.” Lael Brainard, chair of the National Economic Council, recently said, ”It does take consumers a while to kind of see data consistently, and see prices that have actually come down, to feel really confident about them.” 

Data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) suggest that voters have yet to “internalize the good news.” Voters overall have a negative outlook on the direction of the economy (26-61 right direction-wrong track), which is shared by voters with less than a four-year degree (21-67) and those with a four-year degree or more (34-53).

How are they making this determination? By an overwhelming margin, voters say they use the prices of items the regularly buy, such as groceries and gas, as a gauge for inflation (82%), dwarfing the share that says they use the CPI and other government statistics (13%). This approach transcends level of education, with 83% of those without a four-year degree (83-12) and 81% of those with a four-year degree or more (81-16) saying they rely on the prices of items they regularly buy over government statistics. 

The Biden campaign is counting on support from college educated voters, but even among these voters, they have significant work ahead.