Roll Call: ‘Unholy alliance’ – Congress needs to act as global crises threaten West

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the present national security challenges.

For the United States, the Biden administration and Congress, the challenge is not to respond to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as isolated situations — but act together to support a broader, comprehensive policy strong enough to take on what is an increasing threat to the country’s safety and security.

The impasse that has existed for months between the White House and the Congress, exacerbated by intraparty fights over Israel and Ukraine funding, must end. After last weekend’s attack, the consequences of continuing inaction are even more apparent.

Read the rest here.

Roll Call: The price of hyper-partisanship: Confidence in elections undermined

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes covers hyper-partisanship and voter confidence in elections.

Questioning the outcome of an election isn’t illegal or even inappropriate up to a point. Politicians have stretched the truth since time immemorial. But when lying to the electorate for political gain begins to threaten the stability of our democratic system and the future of the republic, both sides need to step back from what may be a tipping point of no return.

Read the rest here.

Roll Call: Biden’s ‘Historic’ Results Aren’t What He Thinks

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston again tackles the credibility of the president’s economic messaging with voters.

The explanation for Biden’s dilemma isn’t complicated. Voters understand when and why the inflation crisis happened. On March 12, 2021, with all the fanfare of a royal progress, Biden and Hill Democrats rushed to the Rose Garden to celebrate the passage of their American Rescue Plan. The president told the crowd, “In the coming weeks … we’re going to be traveling the country to speak directly to the American people about how this law is going to make a real difference in their lives and how help is here for them.”

Biden was half right. In an ironic twist, the American Rescue Plan did make a real difference in the lives of all Americans. It kicked off what has been more than three years of historic and destructive inflation. Passage of this plan, with no Republican votes, was a perfect example of the law of unintended consequences in action.

Read the rest here.

Roll Call: “Biden’s State of the Union was beyond belief. Just ask voters”

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston discusses voter reaction to President Biden’s State of the Union address.

Some of the media, working off the same script, seemed to love Biden’s SOTU, praising the president’s atypical delivery, calling him feisty and fiery at every turn. But there is a fine line between feisty and angry. Biden crossed that line with his delivery, but more important than theatrics, Biden, as he has over the past year, tried to sell the same statements that a majority of voters don’t believe.

Read the rest here.

Roll Call: “Trump’s next test: Go beyond the base”

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overrule the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Donald Trump from the state’s primary ballot, and some challenges from Trump going forward.

The exit polls also raised some important challenges for the Trump campaign going forward. The most obvious is the potential impact of the indictments. Voters were asked whether they would consider Trump fit to be president if convicted.

In North Carolina, 30 percent said no; in Virginia, it was worse, at 37 percent. This is not a new dynamic. We saw a similar response from South Carolina primary voters at 36 percent. Not surprisingly, in these three states, these voters overwhelmingly voted for Haley.

Read the rest here.

Placing Priority: How Issues Mattered More than Demographics in the 2016 Election

The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group has released two new reports exploring the views and values motivating the American electorate. As part of the Voter Study Group, the WG’s David Winston used a unique longitudinal dataset of 5,000 voters to explore which issues mattered most in 2016. Read the full report here or take a look at the highlights:

Viewing the electorate through the lens of issue priorities rather than through demographic variables yields valuable insights. Our analysis suggests that the mix of issue priorities revealed more about voter decision-making than demography.

Using voters’ views on the importance of 23 different issues, a cluster analysis produced five distinct groups — the “Democrat/Independent Liberal Elites” (15 percent of the electorate), the “Democratic-Leaning Working Class” (the largest cluster, at 25 percent), the “Moderate Younger Middle-Income” voters (17 percent), the “Conservative Older” voters (21 percent), and the “Conservative Younger” voters (12 percent), with an additional 10 percent unidentified by these clusters because they did not respond to all 23 issue priority questions.

These clusters demonstrated distinct presidential election voting patterns, party preference, and ideological patterns that can provide insight into voters’ decision-making. The conservative, Republican-Leaning clusters appear more cohesive than the two Democratic-Leaning clusters. The “Democrat/Independent Liberal Elites” cluster prioritized issues popular in the media coverage of the election, but not issues that were “very important” to the other Democratic cluster and the country as a whole, such as the economy and jobs. These differences will be consequential for Democrats in the future.

The key issues driving the election, based on what voters found most important, were the economy, health care, jobs, and Social Security. Issues such as climate change, gender, and racial injustice that made up a significant level of the media coverage of the 2016 election were not among the most important issues for most voters. The Rust Belt was key to the election outcome, and the economy was the top issue among Trump voters in that region, and the fifth most important issue among Clinton voters.

Of the four top issues, Trump had the advantage among voters who highly prioritized jobs and the economy while Clinton had an advantage among those who prioritized health care. Neither candidate had an advantage on Social Security. Clinton won a majority of those voters who prioritized 12 of the 23 issues included in the survey, and often by large margins. But Trump won a majority of those who prioritized two of the top three issues, including the most important, the economy.

Voters were not satisfied with the status quo when it came to the economy, and deep economic frustration and desire for change underlied their issue prioritization and political decision-making.