Category: In the media/Roll Call

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the state of political discourse and rhetoric in the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.

The political discourse in this country has been driven by a focus on anger and grievance as a means to get and sustain attention and “eyeballs.” This focus has become the central element of political campaigns, and the media has adopted it as well. The impact of constant negative speech and negative news coverage is reflected in the country’s attitude toward the direction of the country. 

In the Real Clear Politics average, you have to go back to 2009 to even find parity between voters who thought the country was headed in the right direction and those who thought it was on the wrong track. That is a decade and a half. Today, the RCP average is 23 percent right direction and 67 percent wrong track. 

Read the full piece here.

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the impacts of Joe Biden’s June 27 debate performance:

[T]he public is still processing what they saw, which contradicted what the White House and many Democrats have been asserting for months. The president is fine, they’ve been telling us. Move along. Nothing to see here. 

But their efforts to make the race all about Trump have clearly been compromised, with Biden’s poor performance now becoming a major factor in the political equation. Voters are just beginning to work through how this will impact their ballot preference. 

Read the full piece here.

The Winston Groups’ David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the impact of California in presidential elections.

However, the elections of 2000 and 2016, when Bush and Trump won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, broke new ground in understanding the relationship between the popular vote and the Electoral College — the California factor. This state’s outsize impact on national vote totals often skews the perception of presidential election outcomes, not a positive when it comes to healing post-election divisions. 

Hillary Clinton and Gore both lost the popular vote outside of California. Gore lost by about 750,000, earning him a total of 267 electors. Hillary Clinton’s loss outside California was worse, down by 1.4 million votes and earning only 232 electors. In contrast, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Biden all won the popular vote outside of California by putting together a winning coalition that crossed the greater than 3 percent threshold, a necessity for either party. 

Read the full piece here.

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the Biden campaign strategy in light of Trump’s conviction:

For many Democrats, last week’s jury decision to convict Trump on 34 felony counts was a moment to celebrate. For the Biden campaign, they now believe they have the words to defeat him: “convicted felon.” 

Like Clinton and her deplorables, Biden now has his own line to push his “save democracy” mantra while bashing his opponent. But will it work any better than Clinton’s personal attacks? 

Read the full piece here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the importance of independents in the upcoming election — specifically independents who do not have a favorable view of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

The key question is how this important voter group will decide given that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have unfavorables of almost 60 percent. Among independents, it is almost 70 percent, according to the latest Winning the Issues survey (April 27–29). 

Twenty-two percent of the electorate has an unfavorable view of both, higher than the 2016 election exit polls, when 18 percent had an unfavorable view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Among independents, 41 percent are unfavorable to both candidates, up from 27 percent in 2016 exit polls. 

At 41 percent, given that independents made up 26 percent of voters at the presidential level in 2020, it could represent around 11 percent of the electorate in 2024. This means the election could be decided by voters who are unfavorable to both candidates. 

Read the full piece here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about how voters are viewing the latest wave of campus protests.

the reaction to how colleges handled the situation satisfied neither those agreeing nor those disagreeing [with the protests]. Voters who approved of the protests broke even on the handling of the protests, with 40 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Those who disapproved of the protests had a significantly higher disapproval (12 percent/71 percent).

Read the rest here.

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about President Biden’s recent promise to let the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire.

Biden didn’t just violate his pledge to not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000; he shattered it with his boast to the union crowd. 

And, according to House Ways and Means Committee Republicans, if Congress fails to extend the Trump-era tax cuts, it means an average American family of four making $75,000 will get hit with a $1,500 tax increase. “Main Street businesses will face a 43.4 percent tax rate” and “working parents will suffer from a Child Tax Credit slashed in half” along with the standard deduction every taxpayer is due.

Contrary to what Biden and his supporters would have us believe, most Americans got a tax cut thanks to the 2017 law, which Biden loves to demonize. Biden has been peddling disinformation on the 2017 tax cuts for years. When running for president in 2019, Biden said, “There’s a $2 trillion tax cut last year. Did you feel it? Did you get anything from it? Of course not. Of course not. All of it went to folks at the top and corporations.” 

Read the rest here.