Category: Education

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Education Level and the View of Biden’s Economic Performance

One of the key areas of concern for the Biden administration heading to the election this fall is inflation. Axios reported yesterday that the White House released a memo on inflation, detailing what it is doing to help address rising costs. “It’s an attempt,” as Axios says, “to tell Americans that the White House is focused on bringing prices down at a time when voters are unhappy with the economy, and hold the president responsible for inflation.”

As we’ve written before, some commentators have tried to dismiss the muted economic outlook as partisan, though data shows it’s not just Republicans who are down on the economy and unhappy with the way Biden has handled it. But are there differences for voters of varying levels of education? Trending data from Winning the Issues going back to the first month of Biden’s presidency (February 2021) allows us to look at this question over time and in the context of other economic events.

In the beginning, voters of all levels of education approved of the way Biden was handling the economy, though voters with a postgraduate education were clearly the most approving (69%  approve), compared to those with a bachelor’s degree (56%), or those with at most an associate’s degree or some college experience (51%). At that time, the CPI was 1.7%. 

Following that point, however, we can observe a steady decline in the percent saying they approved of the way Biden was handling the economy, especially among those without a bachelor’s degree. Those with a bachelor’s degree remained moderately positive until October of 2021 (48% approve), the first time that less than a majority of this group said they approved of how Biden was doing.

Those with a postgraduate education remained more or less very positive until early 2022. But in July 2022, each group reached their low point of job approval (30% approve among those with less than a bachelor’s degree, 35% among those with a bachelor’s degree, 38% among those with a postgraduate education). The month before, inflation had peaked at 9.1%.

Since then, generally speaking, voters with a postgraduate education have tracked more closely with those who have bachelor’s degrees, and none of the three groups have had more than 50% approve of Biden’s job on the economy since April 2022. In other words, voters’ views of the president on the economy, while still negative, have reached an equilibrium over the last several months. This is in keeping with the CPI. After its peak in June 2022, inflation eased somewhat, reaching 3% in June 2023. But it hasn’t moved much since, marking 11 consecutive months of 3% or more inflation since the apparent moderation last June. Overall, inflation has been at or above 3% for 37 consecutive months.

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Are Grades or Test Scores The Best Indicator Of Student Knowledge?

In February, we took a look at the belief statement Grades are the best indicator of a student’s knowledge and skill level. Overall, voters did not believe it (36-55) and neither did parents (36-57). This week, we look at data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) that asked voters to choose whether classroom grades or standardized test scores were the best indicator of a high school student’s knowledge and skill. 

While neither option had a majority, voters overall said classroom grades by a margin of +11 (48-37). Parents were among the groups most likely to say classroom grades were the best indicator (56-35, +21). While non-parents also tended to say that grades were better than test scores, it was only by a margin of 8 (45-37). 

Of note, while both African American and Hispanic voters each had nearly one in two prefer classroom grades to test scores, the margins among these groups were smaller compared to voters overall and parents (+6 grades among African Americans; +5 among Hispanics).

Also of note, those who thought a 70% in Algebra 1 indicated readiness for Algebra 2 (42% of the electorate) preferred classroom grades by a margin of 17 (54-37). On the other hand, among the 43% who said a 70% did not indicate readiness, the margin between grades and test scores was only 6 (46-40).

This research joins a larger body of research showing parents rely more on classroom grades than test scores, most notably that of Learning Heroes released at the end of last year. However, it also shows that voters overall — including non-parents — agree that grades are better than test scores. Voters may not believe that grades are the best indicator of student knowledge absolutely, but when the alternative is test scores as currently defined, they tend to prefer the grades.

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When Has A Student Mastered Algebra 1?

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at whether parents and voters thought that a 70% in Algebra 1 indicated readiness for Algebra 2. On an earlier survey for Winning the Issues, voters had previously said a 70% in Algebra 1 did not indicate readiness for Algebra 2, but by a narrow margin (41-45 ready-not ready). This week, we look again at the topic, and also an additional potential threshold for academic readiness.

On the April survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29), we again asked voters whether a hypothetical student who received a 70% in Algebra 1 would be ready for Algebra 2. This time, virtually the same share of voters said students would be ready (42-43 ready-not ready). Parents narrowly said that student was ready (48-45). Non-parents resembled the overall electorate. 

As we observed in the last survey, it is notable that many voters do not think a 70% indicates readiness for the next academic level, even if it is typically considered passing. For this survey, we included another question: was a student earning an 80% ready for Algebra 2?

The share saying that a student with an 80% would be ready for Algebra 2 shot up by 41 points (83-10 ready-not ready). Among non-parents, it also increased by 41 points (81-10). Among parents, it increased by 39 points (87-9).

Overall, 80% was clearly a more acceptable threshold and indicator of readiness for the next subject level. Simply getting a passing grade was not seen as enough. The electorate seems to expect some level of mastery beyond the binary pass/fail. Agreement that a student with an 80% was ready for Algebra 2 held across other groups, including age and partisan groups. There are two questions that remain. First, why is a 70% a more acceptable threshold for some than it is for others? And second, what knowledge does a student with an 80% in Algebra 1 have that a student with a 70% does not?

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The Electorate’s Response To The Latest Wave Of Campus Protests

Over six months after the October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel, tensions on college campuses have flared again. The latest round followed the testimony of Columbia President Nemat Minouche Shafik in front of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce April 17. Protesters have staged sit-ins and other disruptive activity at colleges across the country, including Columbia.  Columbia ultimately canceled its in-person classes for the rest of the semester, and has canceled their graduation ceremonies.

Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) shed some light on how voters are thinking about and responding to the latest wave of protests. The brand image of colleges and universities has become more negative (53-34 favorable-unfavorable) compared to where it was in December (57-30) after the first Ed and Workforce hearing led to the resignation of two of the three university presidents called to testify. Among independents, less than a majority have a favorable view (46-39).

Ivy League universities (38-41) remain slightly negative (39-40 in December), with independents being more negative (32-45).

Among voters overall, only 19% say they approve of how colleges and universities have handled the demonstrations on campus (19-53 approve-disapprove). Among independents, that share shrinks to 12% (12-57).

Similarly, only 23% say they agree with the pro-Palestinian protests happening on college campuses (23-53 agree-disagree). Majorities of Republicans (10-69) and independents (19-54) say they disagree, while Democrats are split (38-36, 26% don’t know). Within the Democratic party, there are distinctions by age. Half of Democrats under 44 say they agree (50-29). But among Democrats 45 and older, only 29% say they agree, with 42% disagreeing and 30% saying they don’t know. 

Voters are clearly dissatisfied with what they have seen happening on campuses in the last few weeks, a continuation of what they would have observed last fall. What’s more, the dissatisfaction is not limited to Republicans. Independents are dissatisfied, too. 

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When Is A Student Ready For Algebra 2?

Grade inflation has been a frequent topic we have explored at length. Related to the topic of grade inflation is the concept of mastery. At what level of achievement is a student sufficiently ready to graduate to the next level of subject matter? And how does this level translate to numeric grades? 

On the February survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) we asked voters about a hypothetical student who received a 70% in Algebra 1. Was that student ready or not ready for Algebra 2? 

By a narrow margin, voters said that student was not ready, but this was not a majority view (41-45 ready-not ready). Both Republicans (43-43) and Democrats (43-44) are split in their views, while independents had a near majority say that student was not ready (36-48).

Younger voters (ages 18-34) had a majority say the student was ready (56-31 ready-not ready), while older voters (65+) had a majority say that student was not ready (33-54). Parents narrowly said the student was ready, but this was not a majority view (46-40).

There are differences on this question based on the level of concern about learning loss. Those who think students are significantly behind (27% of the electorate) say this student is not ready by a 19-point margin (34-53), while those who think students are about where they normally would have been absent the disruption of the pandemic hold the opposite view (52-32).

A grade of 70%, around a C, is typically considered a passing grade. Yet it is noteworthy that many voters did not think it indicated readiness for the next level of academic content. The question as to what does indicate readiness remains to be addressed. 

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Elite Schools Get Failing Grades On Campus Antisemitism

Six months after the Hamas attacks in Israel and the controversy that rippled across college campuses in its aftermath, the Anti-Defamation League unveiled its first Campus Antisemitism Report Card. The report looks at 85 colleges and universities, which include schools with the highest levels of Jewish student enrollment as well as the country’s top liberal arts schools. Schools were assessed based on 21 criteria organized into three groups: administrative policies and actions, campus incidents, and Jewish life on campus. 

Of the 85 schools included in the first report card, 27% received a D for “deficient approach.” Another 15%, including schools such as Harvard and MIT received an F. (The University of Pennsylvania, the third school highlighted in the House Education and Workforce December 5 hearing on campus antisemitism, received a D.) Taken together, 42% of the schools received a D or worse in the ratings. 

About a third of the schools (34%) received a C grade, indicating “corrections needed.”  Another 21% received a B, indicating “better than most.” Only two received an A grade, indicating they were “ahead of the pack”: Brandeis University and Elon University. However, as the Report Card FAQs note, letter grades above an F should be interpreted with caution, and are not definitive conclusions as to whether campuses do or do not have antisemitism problems. Readers are encouraged to look at individual campus profiles for a fuller understanding of how each campus is doing. 

Columbia University, which earned a D in the report, will be the subject of another House Education and Workforce Committee hearing on antisemitism later this week. The school’s leaders will be testifying on Capitol Hill this Wednesday morning.

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How Concerned Are Parents About Students Missing School?

Though learning loss has been a major point of discussion post-pandemic, an equally important topic is chronic absenteeism. Almost 30% of students were chronically absent in the 2021-22 school year, meaning they missed 10%, or 18 days, of the year. There were only slight improvements for 2022-23, according to preliminary data as of last fall. Based on estimates from the American Enterprise Institute, which looked at available data from 38 states and DC, 26% of students were chronically absent last year, up from 15% pre-pandemic. The trend cuts across demographics. In a “Dear Colleague” letter dated March 22, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wrote to state education leaders asking them to “continue the hard work of re-engaging students.” 

As with learning loss, the question on the minds of researchers is how concerned — or even aware — are parents about chronic absenteeism? A recent report from The Brookings Institution, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of K-12 parents and caretakers, sheds some light while also raising more questions. Among their findings:

Parents and caretakers either underestimate or underreport their child’s absences relative to what the data show is really happening. Overall, they found about 15% of caretakers reporting their child missed 6 days or more in fall 2023 and were likely on track to be chronically absent. Within this group, about a third said their child had missed more than 10 days. “These percentages,” the researchers write, “are substantially lower than the rates found in hard data about chronic absenteeism (which in some states has been reported to be twice as high as what parents are reporting).”  

Few parents and caretakers report being concerned about their child’s absences, even those with children at risk of being chronically absent. Overall, 8% of parents and caretakers describe themselves as being concerned about their child’s absences. Among those with children at risk of being chronically absent, less than half describe themselves as concerned.

The research explored a few potential reasons parents and caretakers might report lower levels of concern, including the availability of coursework and school materials online. About a third (32%) of parents and caretakers say they “aren’t worried about their child missing school because everything the child needs to know is available online.” Among those whose children missed at least 6 days, another third (33%) “believe it is okay for students to work from home if they want.”

These findings are reminiscent of the takeaways from recent Learning Heroes research about parent perceptions of student academic success (described by Learning Heroes co-founder Cindi Williams in her recent Tedx Talk). In that research, parents also reported that their children are at grade level much more frequently than the data tells us is true. The key difference is the level of concern. From the Learning Heroes research, parents who know their children are not at grade level report being worried about their children’s academic skills. But for chronic absenteeism, even parents who report their children missing an elevated number of days are not overly concerned, and a third think it is acceptable for students to work from home if they want. 

Chronic absenteeism is also impeding learning loss recovery; students can’t recover if they aren’t in school. Studies have shown that elevated levels of chronic absenteeism can even have negative effects on students who are still going to school.

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How Do Highly Educated Voters Vote?

One observation that has become commonplace in recent years when talking about changing partisan trends is that the Democratic Party is becoming the party of educated voters, while voters with less education are increasingly voting Republican.

How true is this analysis? To answer this question, we took a look at data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25). Voters were asked to characterize their typical voting behavior, from voting straight Republican to straight Democrat. Overall, the electorate is pretty evenly split, with 35% saying they vote straight or mostly Republican, 36% saying they vote straight or mostly Democrat, and 25% saying they slightly favor one party over another or that they split their ticket evenly.

Looking at the results by level of education shows a remarkable level of consistency.

  • Those who never attended college (19% of the 2020 Presidential electorate, 16% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 33-32 Republican-Democrat, with 28% saying they slightly favor one party or split their ticket evenly.
  • Those who attended college but received no degree (23% of the 2020 Presidential electorate; 27% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 37-38, with 21% indicating they split their ticket or only slightly favor one party.
  • Associate’s degree holders (16% of the 2020 Presidential electorate; 15% of the 2022 Congressional electorate) split 32-33, with 31% saying they slightly favor one party or split their ticket evenly. 
  • Bachelor’s degree holders, split 38-38, with 23% slightly favoring one party or splitting their ticket evenly. Voters with a bachelor’s degree accounted for about a quarter of the 2020 Presidential electorate (27%) and the 2022 Congressional electorate (25%).
  • Even voters with a postgraduate education say they only favor Democrats but only by a margin of 5 (32-37, 28% slightly favor one party/split ticket evenly). This group made up 15% of the 2020 Presidential electorate and 19% of the 2022 Congressional electorate. 

There is no education level that characterizes itself as overwhelmingly partisan, though those with graduate degrees have a slightly favor Democrats. Though it can be easy to reduce voting behavior to simple narratives, the data from this survey show that the reality is likely much more nuanced.

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Does Education Matter in Views Of The Economy?

One of the challenges President Biden is facing heading into the November elections is convincing voters that the economy is going well. As David wrote in a recent column for Roll Call, many voters don’t buy the economic messaging coming from Biden and the White House. Some, like economist Paul Krugman, dismiss this reaction as partisan, chastising his readers, “don’t trust your feelings … Don’t dismiss the careful work of statistical agencies because you were feeling angry yesterday on the checkout line, or because you don’t like the current president.”

The White House is banking on the idea that as voters are exposed to positive economic news, they will give the President more credit. The Washington Post reported that “White House advisers are optimistic that the American public will soon internalize the good news and give the president credit before November.” Lael Brainard, chair of the National Economic Council, recently said, ”It does take consumers a while to kind of see data consistently, and see prices that have actually come down, to feel really confident about them.” 

Data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) suggest that voters have yet to “internalize the good news.” Voters overall have a negative outlook on the direction of the economy (26-61 right direction-wrong track), which is shared by voters with less than a four-year degree (21-67) and those with a four-year degree or more (34-53).

How are they making this determination? By an overwhelming margin, voters say they use the prices of items the regularly buy, such as groceries and gas, as a gauge for inflation (82%), dwarfing the share that says they use the CPI and other government statistics (13%). This approach transcends level of education, with 83% of those without a four-year degree (83-12) and 81% of those with a four-year degree or more (81-16) saying they rely on the prices of items they regularly buy over government statistics. 

The Biden campaign is counting on support from college educated voters, but even among these voters, they have significant work ahead. 

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Do Voters Connect Learning Loss and Grade Inflation?

Inspired by the headlines about elite colleges bringing back their standardized testing requirements (with Brown joining the list last week) we have been focused on issues related to tests and grade inflation. This week, we look at grade inflation through a slightly different lens, analyzing the extent to which voters connect grade inflation with pandemic-related learning loss. Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) suggests that, for many voters, grade inflation and learning loss are linked. 

Overall, when voters were asked where they think students currently are in their learning, given the school closures during the pandemic, 57% say they are at least somewhat behind (30% somewhat behind, 27% significantly behind). Another 27% said students are only slightly behind, with about 1 in 10 (11%) saying they are not behind at all. 

Though there has been some fall-off in the share of voters saying students are significantly behind, the current number is not far off from where it was in April 2023 when we asked the question last (29% significantly behind, 31% somewhat behind, 22% slightly behind, 9% about where they would normally have been). 

Views about the extent to which students are behind are somewhat related to views about grade inflation. Among those who say that students are significantly behind, 72% say that grade inflation is a widespread problem. But even among those who think students are doing just fine, only 16% say grade inflation is not a problem at all (26% widespread problem, 30% an isolated problem).

Only about 1 in 5 voters (19%) say both that grade inflation is a widespread problem and that students are significantly behind because of the pandemic.