The Rise of Independents and Decline of Democrats: An Analysis Of The 2024 Presidential Election
This in-depth analysis, using Edison Research exit poll data, and the Winning the Issues post-election study, reviews what happened and why. For the first time since the Watergate era, independents surpassed one of the major political parties to rank second in terms of party identification. In this presidential election, the percentage of the electorate that […]
It’s the Year of the Independent: An analysis of the 2022 Midterm Election
In this election, Republicans, Democrats and the media expected a significant Red Wave. Projections of Republicans winning 240 seats were not uncommon, and most had the number at 230 or higher. On election night, it was not clear that Republicans could reach 218, and it wasn’t until over a week later that media entities began […]
“Split Decision”: An analysis of the 2020 Presidential Election
Going into the 2020 November election, Joe Biden enjoyed a sizable lead, according to most media polling. Democrats believed the country was moving toward the left; and that, as a result, the political environment was also moving significantly in their direction. If they could tie Republican Congressional candidates in swing districts/states to Trump, while the […]