Category: Roll Call

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the impacts of Joe Biden’s June 27 debate performance:

[T]he public is still processing what they saw, which contradicted what the White House and many Democrats have been asserting for months. The president is fine, they’ve been telling us. Move along. Nothing to see here. 

But their efforts to make the race all about Trump have clearly been compromised, with Biden’s poor performance now becoming a major factor in the political equation. Voters are just beginning to work through how this will impact their ballot preference. 

Read the full piece here.

The Winston Groups’ David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the impact of California in presidential elections.

However, the elections of 2000 and 2016, when Bush and Trump won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, broke new ground in understanding the relationship between the popular vote and the Electoral College — the California factor. This state’s outsize impact on national vote totals often skews the perception of presidential election outcomes, not a positive when it comes to healing post-election divisions. 

Hillary Clinton and Gore both lost the popular vote outside of California. Gore lost by about 750,000, earning him a total of 267 electors. Hillary Clinton’s loss outside California was worse, down by 1.4 million votes and earning only 232 electors. In contrast, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Biden all won the popular vote outside of California by putting together a winning coalition that crossed the greater than 3 percent threshold, a necessity for either party. 

Read the full piece here.

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the Biden campaign strategy in light of Trump’s conviction:

For many Democrats, last week’s jury decision to convict Trump on 34 felony counts was a moment to celebrate. For the Biden campaign, they now believe they have the words to defeat him: “convicted felon.” 

Like Clinton and her deplorables, Biden now has his own line to push his “save democracy” mantra while bashing his opponent. But will it work any better than Clinton’s personal attacks? 

Read the full piece here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the importance of independents in the upcoming election — specifically independents who do not have a favorable view of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

The key question is how this important voter group will decide given that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have unfavorables of almost 60 percent. Among independents, it is almost 70 percent, according to the latest Winning the Issues survey (April 27–29). 

Twenty-two percent of the electorate has an unfavorable view of both, higher than the 2016 election exit polls, when 18 percent had an unfavorable view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Among independents, 41 percent are unfavorable to both candidates, up from 27 percent in 2016 exit polls. 

At 41 percent, given that independents made up 26 percent of voters at the presidential level in 2020, it could represent around 11 percent of the electorate in 2024. This means the election could be decided by voters who are unfavorable to both candidates. 

Read the full piece here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about how voters are viewing the latest wave of campus protests.

the reaction to how colleges handled the situation satisfied neither those agreeing nor those disagreeing [with the protests]. Voters who approved of the protests broke even on the handling of the protests, with 40 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Those who disapproved of the protests had a significantly higher disapproval (12 percent/71 percent).

Read the rest here.

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about President Biden’s recent promise to let the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire.

Biden didn’t just violate his pledge to not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000; he shattered it with his boast to the union crowd. 

And, according to House Ways and Means Committee Republicans, if Congress fails to extend the Trump-era tax cuts, it means an average American family of four making $75,000 will get hit with a $1,500 tax increase. “Main Street businesses will face a 43.4 percent tax rate” and “working parents will suffer from a Child Tax Credit slashed in half” along with the standard deduction every taxpayer is due.

Contrary to what Biden and his supporters would have us believe, most Americans got a tax cut thanks to the 2017 law, which Biden loves to demonize. Biden has been peddling disinformation on the 2017 tax cuts for years. When running for president in 2019, Biden said, “There’s a $2 trillion tax cut last year. Did you feel it? Did you get anything from it? Of course not. Of course not. All of it went to folks at the top and corporations.” 

Read the rest here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the present national security challenges.

For the United States, the Biden administration and Congress, the challenge is not to respond to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as isolated situations — but act together to support a broader, comprehensive policy strong enough to take on what is an increasing threat to the country’s safety and security.

The impasse that has existed for months between the White House and the Congress, exacerbated by intraparty fights over Israel and Ukraine funding, must end. After last weekend’s attack, the consequences of continuing inaction are even more apparent.

Read the rest here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes covers hyper-partisanship and voter confidence in elections.

Questioning the outcome of an election isn’t illegal or even inappropriate up to a point. Politicians have stretched the truth since time immemorial. But when lying to the electorate for political gain begins to threaten the stability of our democratic system and the future of the republic, both sides need to step back from what may be a tipping point of no return.

Read the rest here.

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston again tackles the credibility of the president’s economic messaging with voters.

The explanation for Biden’s dilemma isn’t complicated. Voters understand when and why the inflation crisis happened. On March 12, 2021, with all the fanfare of a royal progress, Biden and Hill Democrats rushed to the Rose Garden to celebrate the passage of their American Rescue Plan. The president told the crowd, “In the coming weeks … we’re going to be traveling the country to speak directly to the American people about how this law is going to make a real difference in their lives and how help is here for them.”

Biden was half right. In an ironic twist, the American Rescue Plan did make a real difference in the lives of all Americans. It kicked off what has been more than three years of historic and destructive inflation. Passage of this plan, with no Republican votes, was a perfect example of the law of unintended consequences in action.

Read the rest here.