Category: Analysis

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Roll Call: Here’s how the media missed the story, from joy to democracy

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the media narratives that “simply did not pan out, as the results and exit polls show.”

Pundits also argued that because the country was so polarized, there were no neutral voters; everyone leaned toward one party or the other. There was no true political center, independents weren’t really independent, and anyone following the election should use that lens if they wanted to understand it. Their conclusion: The key to this election wasn’t appealing to the middle; it was going to be turnout operations. 

But if that were true, what happened to the vaunted Democratic Party get-out-the-vote effort? In this election, Democrats’ share of the electorate fell to a historic low, and they are now a smaller portion of the electorate than both Republicans and independents, according to the Edison exit polls. 

Read the full piece here.  

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America’s New Third Party: Democrats

One of the questions we’re asked most frequently is whether there is room for a third party. Given the result in the 2024 election, there may be a new one on the political scene.

As we highlighted in last Friday’s Discussion Points, the 2024 election produced a historic low for Democrats, continuing a decline from the 2022 midterm election that saw the lowest percentage of the electorate (33%) that they had experienced in the past twenty Congressional elections. From 2020 to 2024, Democrats dropped 6% as a percentage of the electorate, going from 37% in 2020 to 31% in 2024 (exit polls not yet finalized). This drop translates into approximately 10 million fewer voters identifying as Democrats. The Democrats’ decline gave a historic party ID advantage for Republicans of +4, as Republicans were at 35% of the electorate compared to Democrats at 31%. This election saw a sizable increase in independents from 27% in 2020 to 34% — demonstrating the rise of independents’ size and influence in US elections.

These proportions put Democrats (31%) well behind independents (34%) and Republicans (35%) as a percentage of the electorate and into third party status. Given that the percentage of Republicans declined from 36% in 2020 to 35% in 2024, this was not a shift toward Republicans — it was a move away from Democrats.

This trend extended to the state level. As shown in the chart, Republicans had party ID advantages over Democrats in all seven competitive states, while Democrats finished behind both Republicans and independents as a portion of the electorate in five of the seven competitive states (AZ, MI, NC, NV, WI).

Despite dwindling numbers in their party, the left doesn’t seem to realize that Democrats have been relegated to third party status nationally and in many of the key states. Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton is the latest target of post-election backlash from progressive activists, as he sounded off his frustration to Bloomberg: “The biggest
problem with the party is that we just have this arrogant culture where if you don’t meet every ideological litmus test established by our party’s left wing, then you’re not only wrong, you are a bad person. And that’s the perception that a lot of Americans have of the Democratic Party.”

Democrats must start trying to attract voters back into their column rather than alienating voters with ideological litmus tests. They have 10 million reasons to start changing.

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Culture Wars vs. Learning Loss in the 2024 Election

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, we asked voters whether dealing with learning loss or cultural issues should be the the education policy priority. By over 3:1, voters said dealing with learning loss (65-21 learning loess-cultural issues). In our 2024 election survey of 1250 voters who voted at the Congressional level, we decided to ask the same question.

Overall there was little change, with 66% saying learning loss should be the priority and 25% saying that cultural issues should be the priority. This held true for Trump voters (67-24) and Harris voters (65-26), as well as independents (71-19), and Hispanic voters (69-24), both of which are key voter groups coming out of the exit polls. This solidifies the earlier finding: voters believe addressing learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priority when it comes to the education debates.

This however is not to say that cultural issues are unimportant, or that they did not play any role in Republicans winning the White House, House, and Senate. Asked to rate a series of issues and news stories on a 1-9 scale where 1 indicated “not important at all,” 5 was “important” and 9 “extremely important,” voters overall rated “cultural issues such as transgender individuals participating in women’s sports” at a 4.91, very close to the threshold for being deemed important. For Trump voters, the issue came in at a 5.00, while for Harris voters, they came in at a 4.86.

“Culture war” issues certainly have standing, and likely played some role in what happened last week. But looking ahead, the party that is best able to offer a compelling message on boosting student achievement will have a significant advantage on the issue, one that goes beyond appealing primarily to either party’s base.

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Roll Call: America may have a new third party – The Democrats

In today’s Roll Call, The Winston Group’s David Winston writes that 2024 may “go down in history as the election the Democratic Party ID hit an all-time low.”

Exit polls ask voters which of the two major parties they identify with, or neither, as the case may be. Comparing the composition of the electorate in the 2024 presidential race with the one in 2020, Democrats dropped a significant 6 points in party ID, going from 37 percent to 31 percent and becoming, de facto, the country’s third party, behind both Republicans and independents.  This year’s major turnabout by voters gave Republicans a historic plus-4 party ID presidential-level advantage that delivered a political hat trick for the party — the White House, Senate and House. 

… Democrats and the media should have seen this coming. The Winston Group’s 2022 post-election analysis noted that Democrats had the lowest percentage of the electorate, 33 percent, that the party had experienced in the past 20 congressional elections. The previous low was 35 percent, which came in the Democratic defeats in the congressional elections of 2010 and 2014. Definite red-flag material. 

Read the full piece here.

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Roll Call: This is the Obama-Biden-Harris Legacy

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes that “this election will be won or lost on the basis of who voters believe will deliver a stronger, more stable economy.”

While Republicans had produced a better economy than Obama’s, their decision to emphasize other issues for the party’s closing argument [in 2018] cost them seats. 

That was the GOP’s mistake. Ironically, for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, their mistake was looking to Barack Obama for economic policy advice. Their post-pandemic stimulus package, the American Rescue Plan, was nothing less than a page out of Obama’s playbook — on steroids — and just about as effective.

Read the full piece here.  

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Academic Proficiency and Quality of Life

Last week, we took a look at two questions related to the idea that recovering from learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priorities for education policy: whether K-12 education gives students the skills they need to succeed as adults, and whether our current educational system will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had. Generally speaking, the answer to both questions was no. As we saw last week, only 30% believed the statement Our current educational system will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had, while 53% did not believe it.

What would mean that our current educational system was providing students with the skills they needed? At least part of the answer is achieving a certain benchmark of proficiency in math and reading. Some 92% of voters overall say that having 50% of US students proficient or better in math and reading is important (92-4 important-not important), with 77% calling it very important.

Even more importantly, voters connect academic capabilities with the quality of life students will be able to achieve as adults. By more than 2:1, voters believed the statement Having 50% of our students proficient or better in math and reading will mean we have an educational system that will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had (57-21 believe-do not believe). This is also a bipartisan view, with 53% of Republicans (53-24), 53% of independents (53-24) and 65% of Democrats (65-16) believing this statement. Among parents, 59% believe it (59-22).

Voters recognize the importance of proficiency and see its connection to having a quality of life that at least meets if not exceeds that of the present. A next step for advocates and policymakers then might be to declare 50% proficiency, as measured by a test like NAEP, as a national goal, and then define the steps that would need to be taken to achieve this benchmark.

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Does K-12 Education Give Students The Skills They Need As Adults?

As we noted last week, while much of the recent education policy debate has focused on cultural issues, voters believe that dealing with learning loss and boosting academic achievement should be the priority in education policy. This week, we take that theme a step farther by looking at two follow-up questions from our September survey for Winning the Issues (September 18-19): do voters think K-12 education gives students the skills they need to succeed as adults? And, will our current educational system allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had?

By a six-point margin, voters do not believe that K-12 education in the US gives students the skills they need to succeed as adults (41-47 believe-do not believe). Only Democrats (56-33) and to a slight extent parents (47-43) believe this statement, while Republicans (35-52) and independents (30-57) do not.

By an even larger margin, voters also did not believe our current educational system will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had (30-53). Only Democrats believed this, but it was well shy of a majority view (44-38). Majorities of Republicans (22-62), independents (22-61) and a near majority of parents (35-47) did not believe the statement.

Not surprisingly, voters see the connection between “real world,” adult skills and quality of life. Among those who do said the US educational system does not give students the skills they need to succeed as adults, 83% say the current system will not allow the next generation to have the same quality of life (8-83 believe-do not believe).

Next week, we will take a look at what voters think would mean students were being provided with the skills they need, and a potential policy goal for lawmakers looking ahead to the next Congress.

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Roll Call: A civil debate? Now that’s an October surprise

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the Vice Presidential debate between Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz.

Walz, whether you agreed with him or not, Vance did a good job presenting his policy positions. His recent experience doing interviews with the press was clearly a help. His statements were precise, making the points he wanted to make with clarity and, surprising to many, with warmth and compassion. Vance’s friendly interaction with Walz made the debate more about content rather than personality, which Walz equally contributed to. 

Read the full piece here.

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Culture Wars vs. Learning Loss As Voter Priority

Throughout the 2024 campaign, the education policy debate has focused largely on cultural issues particularly on the Republican side. Data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (September 18-19; 1,000 registered voters) suggests this would not be the strongest message on the education issue. In a direct contrast, voters say that dealing with learning loss from the Covid-19 pandemic and boosting student achievement is more important than dealing with cultural issues in K-12 schools by a margin of over 3:1 (65-21).

Agreement is bipartisan; with two-thirds of Republicans (66-21), 69% of independents (69-15), and 60% of Democrats (60-28) saying learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priority, though neither party explicitly mentions a forward-looking plan for restoring lost learning in their platform. Even among the conservative GOP base, by more than 3:1, conservative Republicans agree that learning loss should be the priority (70-22).

The same survey for Winning the Issues showed a continued preference for Democrats to handle the issue of education. Voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 12 (38-50 R- D), with independents now preferring Democrats 27-46. But among voters that prefer the Republicans on the issue of education, they want a focus on learning loss and student achievement by a 69-19 margin. Those that prefer Democrats also prefer a focus on learning loss, but by the slightly smaller margin of 63-25.

This data does not mean that cultural issues are not important, but it does mean that learning loss overwhelms cultural concerns as the priority in education. The results also indicate a missed opportunity for both parties in 2024. Going into next year, the party that captures learning loss as part of their education platform will have a significant advantage on the issue.

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Roll Call: To debate or not to debate, that is the question

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the possibility of a second Trump-Harris debate and the current state of the presidential race.

The possibility of a second Harris-Trump debate makes for a great subplot to one of the most interesting campaigns we’ve ever seen. How the campaigns and the candidates address the debate question rests on whether they think another debate will put them over the top or whether they can afford to take the chance, given the last debate.  

Today, most polls show the race is hovering around a 2 to 3 percent national Harris lead. That means the Electoral College is in play. 

Read the full piece here.