How To Get Students To Think Like Scientists

On his new Substack, “The Next 30 Years: The Future Of Education Reform,” Robert Pondiscio has a new piece on the importance of content-specific knowledge for building skills like critical thinking. “You want students to ‘think like a scientist’ instead of studying science?” he asks. “You can’t.” He continues,

There is no “thinking like a historian” until or unless you know what the historian knows. The assumption that we can teach, practice, and master all-purpose “skills” like critical thinking, problem solving, even reading comprehension, is education’s search for the Northwest Passage—a shortcut to cognitive riches that exists mostly as a wish. Education may not be “the filling of a pail, but the lighting of a fire,” but no fire can be lit in an empty pail.

Deep, transferable learning depends on domain-specific knowledge, and thinking itself is inextricably linked to the content of thought. A robust foundation of knowledge is not merely the raw material for thought, it is the scaffolding that makes higher-order thinking possible.

Skills like critical thinking and problem solving are complex cognitive processes, requiring a deep, previously existing knowledge base. Advocates, policymakers, and parents may rightly prioritize students’ acquisition of such skills when they think about what a high school graduate should look like. But they should not forget the necessary building blocks it takes to develop those skills.

Inauguration Edition: 7 Key Facts From the 2024 Election

It was a new day in Washington as Trump returned to the White House and Republicans have control of the Senate and House. In light of the inaugural events, here is a recap of seven must-know facts from the 2024 election:

  1. For the first time since the Watergate era, independents surpassed one of the major political parties to rank second in terms of party identification. Independents went from 27% in 2020 to 34% in 2024 — a 7-point increase.
  2. Coming in behind independents as a percentage of the electorate, Democrats were de facto the third party in the election. Democrats went from 37% of the presidential electorate in 2020 to 31% in 2024, a 6-point drop.
  3. Republicans had a historic party ID advantage. While the overall percentage of the electorate that was Republican decreased by 1%, going from 36% in 2020 to 35% in 2024, Republicans had a +4 party ID advantage after not having any advantage in the ten prior presidential elections.
  4. The view of the economy was very negative. Exit polls showed that an overwhelming 75% of the electorate said inflation had posed some level of hardship for them and their families. From our post election survey, economy/inflation was the top issue at 40%, with Republicans leading on economy issue handling +11 and inflation +12. In contrast, Democrats chose to focus their campaign messages on abortion and democracy.
  5. Trump was the change candidate. Exit polls showed that the top two most important candidate qualities (out of a choice of four) were has the ability to lead and can bring needed change. Trump won decisively on both attributes, leading 2:1 on the ability to lead (+33 Trump), and 3:1 on can bring needed change (+50 Trump).
  6. Republicans made significant inroads with Hispanic voters with Trump winning 46% of this voter group. This is an improvement from the performances in 2016 (28%) and 2020 (32%).
  7. Despite Democrats’ campaign emphasis on abortion and having a female nominee, Harris won women only by 8 points. Harris’ margin among women is significantly smaller than Biden’s 2020 margin among women (+15) and Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 (+13).

For more election insights, see our 2024 post election report.

Roll Call: Trump’s big bang approach to Day 1

In today’s Roll Call, The Winston Group’s David Winston covers Trump’s first day in office.

Beyond the pardons, as Inauguration Day progressed, the contrast between the policies of Biden and Trump was astonishingly obvious. After four years of bad decisions, Trump sent a clear signal that a new sheriff was definitely back in town and determined to change not only the nation’s priorities but how the government would implement those policies. Quite a change from the early days of the first Trump administration.

… Sure, out of the slew of executive orders signed Monday, there are a few that fit the unorthodox category, but Trump may just have set a new precedent of his own with his “shock and awe” policy offensive, which embodies Trump’s journey back to the White House. Given the scope of his executive orders on Day 1, he may just have made Inauguration Day the most important day of every president going forward. 

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: Republican to-do list: Elect Mike Johnson and get to work

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in Roll Call about today’s vote on Mike Johnson’s speakership:

[T]oday’s vote for speaker is just as much a test for the Republican Party as a whole — a test with two critical implications. One of the first duties of a new Congress is the certification of the presidential election scheduled for Jan. 6. 

It is also a chance for the Republican majority in the House to show the American people it can govern. A repeat of the internal but very public fight that faced Kevin McCarthy orchestrated by the same cast of characters would do nothing but undercut the idea that the GOP is ready to lead. 

President-elect Donald Trump has used the transition expeditiously to build expectations for action on Day 1. If there is one thing the electorate clearly wants, it is a focus on getting things done on key issues that dominated the election. A lengthy delay or anything close to it would be the antithesis to that, beginning with the process for certifying the presidential election. Failing to quickly elect a speaker would also jeopardize crucial policy and communications initiatives that will define what Republican leadership means for the country.

Any delay puts that opportunity at risk.

Read the full piece here.

Three Economic Narratives Republicans Should Expect in 2025

As President Biden is about to leave office, he’s working hard to frame his economic legacy in the most positive light. He has been giving a series of speeches to stake out the “Biden economic legacy,” shedding light on three economic narratives Republicans should prepare for:

1.) The Biden economy is in great shape to hand off to Trump. Any economic difficulties will be blamed on Trump and Republicans. This week, Biden said “Next month, my administration will end, and a new administration will begin. The new administration’s going to inherit a very strong economy…”

His record on job creation has been one he stresses as a key part of his economic legacy: “I had the greatest job creation record of any single president in a single term…over 6 million jobs.

2.) Inflation was caused by the pandemic, not Biden’s policies. Republicans have no plan to deal with inflation.

Biden: “The previous administration had no plan — no real plan, really — to get us through one of the toughest periods in our nation’s history. I’ve never been a fan of trickle-down economics. It was a hammer that was hammering working people.”

“I know it’s been hard for many Americans to see [economic progress]. And I understand it. They’re just trying to figure out how to put three squares on the table…But I believe [the American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act] was the right thing to do. Not only to lift America out of an economic crisis caused by a pandemic, but to set America on a stronger course for the future. And we did that.”

With every CPI report, Republicans should expect Democrats to focus on every negative aspect of inflation, and press Republicans about what policies they are offering to deal with the problem.

3.) Republican economic policies are the primary cause of the debt and deficits. As Republicans go into the 2025 tax discussion, Democrats are already laying the groundwork for the case that Republican tax cuts are the cause of the nation’s fiscal crisis:

Richard Neal, Ways and Means: “In the last three decades, Republicans have skyrocketed the deficit with trillions in tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations, always with the same result: the top 1% benefits while nothing trickles down for workers.”

Sheldon Whitehouse, Senate Budget: “In their blind loyalty to their mega-donors, Republicans’ fixation on giant tax cuts for billionaires has created a revenue problem that is driving up our national debt. Even as federal spending fell over the last year relative to the size of the economy, the deficit increased because Republicans have rigged the tax code so that big corporations and the wealthy can avoid paying their fair share.”

As the new Republican majority goes into its most complex legislative effort in several years, Republicans should prepare for the narratives coming against them and be careful not to make the mistakes of the Biden administration.

“For The First Time, Grades Are Not The Number One Factor”

Recently, 50CAN released the results of a national survey of 20,000 parents. The key takeaway: parents said they relied more on communications from their child’s classroom teachers than they did on grades to understand how their children were doing in school. Until now, surveys of parents had indicated that they primarily relied on classroom grades, often leading to a skewed understanding of whether their child was truly on grade level. Bibb Hubbard, President of Learning Heroes commented, “For the first time, grades are not the number one factor. … Teachers really are on the front lines in terms of communicating to families about where their kids are.”

Overall, 29% said they relied most on parent-teacher conferences or other communication from teachers to determine if their child was a grade level, compared to 20% who said they relied most on grades on their report card and 14% who said they relied most on grades on assignments and tests.

One reason for the change, according to Hubbard, is the “falling importance of grades as a dependable measure of learning.” In other words, grade inflation. Even before COVID, there was a mismatch between student classroom grades and test scores, as we have highlighted in past editions of the Emerging Issues newsletter. In the wake of the pandemic, some states and districts changed or relaxed grading standards. Data from our own surveys supports the assertion that grades may no longer be as important as they once were in evaluating student learning. In the February survey for Winning the Issues earlier this year, a 55% majority did not believe that grades are the best indicator of a student’s knowledge and skill level (36-55 believe-do not believe). Among parents, 57% did not believe it (36-57).

It is important to note however, that according to the 50CAN survey, more parents rely on classroom grades than they do standardized test scores. Only 11% said they relied most on scores on state tests, compared to 20% relying most report card grades and 14% relying most grades on assignments and tests. This is also supported by our own data from Winning the Issues. From the April survey this year, voters overall said classroom grades were a better indicator of a high school student’s knowledge and skill by a margin of +11 (48-37 grades-test scores). Among parents, the margin was +21 (56-35).

Parents may be starting to recognize the limitations of relying on classroom grades alone, but they have not started to rely on test scores at the same scale.

Why Did The Democracy Issue Backfire On Democrats?

Throughout the presidential campaign, Democrats made democracy a major theme of their campaigns. Exit polls showed that in a choice of five issues, the two most important were “state of democracy” at 34%, and the economy at 31%. Abortion was a distant third at 14%, closely followed by immigration at 12%, and foreign policy at 4%.

Although “the state of democracy” was important to voters, it didn’t necessarily benefit Democrats. From the exit polls, 73% of the electorate said democracy was threatened rather than secure (25%), but among the voters who said democracy was threatened, Trump won by 2 (50-48). A sizable percentage of the 2024 electorate (39%) said democracy was very threatened, yet this group voted for Trump by 5 (52-47).

From our Winston Group post-election survey, we found that “threats to democracy” was the second most widely heard campaign message from Democratic candidates (17%), second to abortion (30%). With the Democrats’ emphasis on the message that Trump was a threat to democracy, why didn’t the issue translate into votes for Democrats?

In a January 2022 survey for Winning the Issues, we asked voters about the statement that some have said that there is a significant threat to democracy in our country today. A majority of the country agreed with that statement (68-18 agree-disagree) with majority agreement across party (71% of Republicans believing, 68% of independents, 66% of Democrats). But there were different definitions of the threats.

• Democrats saw the two greatest threats to democracy as Republicans undermining minority voting rights at the state level /voter suppression (36%) and right-wing extremist movements (19%).

• Republicans defined the biggest threats to democracy today as voter fraud (including non-citizen voting and lack of security with mail-in ballots) (34%) and federal government overreach and mandates (29%).

• Independents’ top concerns included a mix from the two parties’ definitions: federal government overreach and mandates (20%), voter fraud related issues (20%) followed by right-wing extremist movements (16%) and voter suppression/undermining minority voting (14%) .

• Across party, influence of the news media was seen as another significant threat to democracy, coming in at about the same level among all three groups (10% among Republicans, 10% among independents, 9% among Democrats).

Voters have different interpretations of threats to democracy, but in the 2024 campaign, Democrats only saw it from their perspective — a major miscalculation. For more analysis, see our post-election report.

The Groceries Election, According to Trump

In an interview on Sunday, President-elect Trump attributed his win to a simple reason: ”Very simple word, groceries… I started using the word – the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that.”

Going into the November election, our presidential inflation showed a cumulative price increase of 20.7% since the beginning of the Biden administration, with food costs up almost 23% (22.8%.)

As some context for his statement, here are some of the economic numbers from the election:

  • The condition of the nation’s economy was seen as negative: 31% excellent/good – 68% not so good/poor.
  • An overwhelming 75% of the electorate said inflation had posed some level of hardship for them and their families. 22% said inflation had been a severe hardship; 53% said a moderate hardship; while 24% said there had been no hardship.
  • Additionally, voters were asked who they trusted more to handle the economy, Trump or Harris; Trump won 53-46.
  • In the Winston Group post election survey of 1,250 respondents who voted, economy/inflation was the top issue at 40%, with immigration a distant second at 12%, and abortion right behind at 11%. No other issue was in double digits.
  • The challenge that clearly emerged for Biden and Harris was that voters’ view of the economy was much worse than in the last election. In the 2020 exit polls, 49% said the economy was excellent/good, while 50% said not so good/poor. In this election, it dropped to 31-68.

These numbers demonstrate why the Biden White House was never able to overcome the inflation issue, and why the Harris campaign’s inability to articulate policy positions was such a problem.

For more analysis, see our post-election report.

“Just As Devastating” As NAEP – US Math Scores Drop on TIMSS

The headlines told the same, familiar story last week. US Math Scores Drop On Major International Test (Chalkbeat). ‘Sharp, Steep Declines’: US Students Are Falling Behind in Math and Science (Education Week). US Students Posted Dire Math Declines on an International Test (The New York Times).

Specifically, the headlines are referring to US students’ performance on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) assessment. Overall, since the last test was administered in 2019, fourth graders in the US declined 18 points in math. Eighth graders declined 27 points, with much of the decline at both grade levels coming from the lowest performing students. The latest results are “just as devastating” as the steep declines measured by NAEP two years ago, Commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics Peggy Carr said. She continued, “I would call these declines sharp, steep declines.”

The declines have also had an impact on US standing in the world. In 2019, US fourth graders had a higher average math score than that of 42 education systems, and were behind 14 systems. Now, they are ahead of only 28, and behind up to 21.

Similarly, in 2019 US eighth graders had a higher average math score than that of 28 education systems, and were behind only 10. Now, they are higher than only 18 education systems, and lower than 19.

In 2021, in light of US performance on and standing in the world as measured by the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), we asked voters whether they believed or did not believe agreed or disagreed with the statement The U.S. is becoming the world’s “C” student. Seven in ten (70%) agreed (15% disagree). In light of these results, it seems to be that the US is continuing in that direction.

Roll Call: The great Democratic divide elects Trump twice

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the “existential split” within the Democratic party that has twice led to the election of Donald Trump and now to the Democrats becoming a third party.

What has driven the Democratic Party into third-party status isn’t complicated. There is now, and has been for some time, a potentially existential split in the Democratic Party between working-class voters, historically the key voter group in their coalition, and what I call “Democratic liberal elites,” whose influence isn’t in numbers but in money and the media. 

There is no better example of that disconnect than the events surrounding Kamala Harris’ candidacy, as Democratic power brokers pushed Joe Biden aside hoping for a better candidate.

Lunch bucket Joe was out. Elite progressive Harris was in.

It was this split, rooted in class and ideology, that opened the door to a second Trump presidency and remains a significant challenge to the Democratic Party as it tries to rebuild.

Read the full piece here.