Author: Myra Miller

Myra Miller is Co-Founder of the Winston Group, a strategic planning and survey research firm in Washington, DC. She has worked with House and Senate Republican Leadership and Conferences for over a decade on strategic planning, communications and policy issues. She was closely involved in helping develop the successful House Republican leadership strategy and narrative for the 2010 elections. Recently she has worked on a variety of Congressional policy issues and bipartisan initiatives specifically dealing with governance, including Congressional reform, and improving political discourse. On behalf of the Congressional Institute, she has done research on women voters and has worked with Members of Congress on how to talk to women voters. Her experience also includes working with Fortune 100 corporations and associations on key policy issues including health care, medical innovation and tax policy, as well as brand reputation. She has advised center-right political parties throughout Europe, and has a Masters degree in International Studies from the University of Cambridge. Prior to joining the Winston Group, she served as Political Director for the Alabama Republican Party.
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Inflation Fears Flare Again

Last week’s disappointing GDP news and uptick in a key inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have up-ended Wall Street hopes for an imminent rate cut. The news was also a major setback for the White House, which is desperate to put inflation behind them in time for the election. Reflecting what inflation reports have shown, the electorate has picked up on the warning signs of an inflation resurgence.

From our new survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29), there has been an increase in the percentage saying inflation is getting worse — now at 60% — rather than better (16%) or not changing (21%).

At the end of last year, numbers had improved slightly, with 24% saying inflation is getting better and 53% saying worse. But our current numbers show the highest percentage saying “worse” (60%) since September 2023. The last inflation reports have shown inflation remaining at or above 3% for ten months in a row. With the unexpected uptick in PCE, this has now caused a re-examination of the inflation situation as potentially rebounding.

Some like progressive economist Paul Krugman declared victory months ago, dismissing any remaining concerns about inflation as purely a function of partisanship. Our numbers show that Republicans (82% worse) and independents (61%) are overwhelmingly of the view that inflation is getting worse, but with even a plurality of Democrats (39%) seeing inflation as getting worse instead of better (30%).

With six months to go until the election, the White House has been eager to change voters’ minds about inflation improving thanks to the President’s policies, but our numbers show their views moving in the opposite direction.

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Inflation Pops Again

This week’s economic news was not good for the White House. On April 25, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the first quarter GDP increased only 1.6% according to their advance estimate. This was below the 2.4% expected estimate by economists surveyed by the WSJ. Additionally, the year over year Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose from 2.5% in February to 2.7% in March, mirroring the increase seen in the CPI as it went from 3.2% in February to 3.5% in March. Now there are concerns that inflation may be rebounding. This scenario means the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates higher for longer, dashing hopes for rate cuts that Wall Street desperately wants.

As we’ve been writing about for some time, our inflation tracking has clearly shown that this problem has not gone away. The latest report for March (3.5% year over year CPI) now makes ten months in a row that inflation has stayed at or above 3%. Our Presidential Inflation Rate tracking the cumulative rate of price increases since President Biden has
been in office has gone over the 19% mark for the first time (19.4%).

The economic narrative that the Biden campaign has been counting on has experienced a setback in the last couple of months. The tense situation in the Middle East is showing no signs of cooling off, posing other potential challenges on the horizon with gas prices and supply chains. From our tracking of Presidential Inflation Rates at the same point in administrations, gas prices have been a problem for the Biden team even before the October 7 attacks in Israel. The most recent inflation report shows an almost 50% (47.8%) increase in gas prices since the beginning of the Biden presidency.

This week’s news and the ongoing Middle East tension mean more tumultuous times may be ahead for the Biden team and that they may have to readjust their strategy on the issue of the economy.

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What’s The Matter With Congress?

Congressional job approval is at historic lows with Gallup’s latest rating at a dismal 15-81 approve- disapprove. A recent survey of Congressional staff by the Congressional Management Foundation revealed significant frustration on Capitol Hill, but also a few bright spots.

1.) The desire for bipartisanship still exists. There was broad agreement among staff respondents that it is necessary for Senators and Representatives to collaborate across party lines to best meet the needs of the nation (97% agreed). About two-thirds (65%) strongly agreed. This agreement was bipartisan, with 98% of Republicans and 96% of Democrats agreeing. There is also agreement that it is necessary for staffers to collaborate across party lines for Congress to function effectively, with 98% agreeing with this statement (67% strongly agreed). Similar to views about Members, this view about staff was shared by Republicans (96% agreed) and Democrats (98% agreed).

Majorities of staff respondents recognized the importance of civility (76% very important) and bipartisanship (56% very important), but satisfaction with the current state of both is non-existent (1% very satisfied with current state of civility; 0% very satisfied with state of bipartisanship).

2.) The culture of Congress is not meeting the desire for bipartisanship and civility. A majority of respondents disagreed that it is easy for Senators and Representatives to build relationships across party lines (42-58 agree-disagree, with only 11% strongly agreeing with this statement.) Pessimism about building relationships was bipartisan, with 54% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats disagreeing.

With 51% agreeing that it is easy for staffers to build relationships across party lines, (51-49), this indicates a somewhat more positive outlook on staff relationships than Member relationships (42-58). However, staff from both sides felt that there were insufficient incentives for bipartisanship, with 73% disagreeing that there are strong incentives for staffers to collaborate across party lines (27-73 agree-disagree overall). Only 20% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats agreed that incentives for bipartisanship existed.

3.) There are some areas of improvement. In terms of improvements in legislative functionality, the study identified the work of the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress as the source. One example was an improvement in satisfaction with access to high quality, nonpartisan expertise in the legislative branch, going from 12% very satisfied in 2022 to 32% in 2023.

4.) Misplaced incentives were seen as a reason for dysfunction. A Republican chief of staff told CMF: “The whole place is broken and the incentive structures no longer match the proper functions of a democratic republic.” A Democratic staffer echoed those same frustrations: “The political incentives are increasingly divorced from policy. Tribalism and cults of personality value symbolic goods for leaders rather than material outcomes for the people.” The study showed the importance of time and resources devoted to policy (97% found it important that Members have adequate time and resources to understand, consider and deliberate policy and legislation.) But only a third of respondents (32%) were satisfied that the needed time and resources existed.

For advocates who are not content with the status quo in Congress, the study seems to highlight three areas for constructive engagement: improving incentives around policy and less on personality; promoting the building of relationships; and celebrating successes to build momentum for more wins. The study shows there is interest in bipartisan cooperation and getting things done, but the day-to-day fires in Congress perpetuate the culture of dysfunction. As we found in 2016 research for Congressional Institute, people thought that positive things may be happening in Congress, but they didn’t hear about it. An independent voter said in our listening sessions, “We really don’t know what’s going on up there. And I’m sure they’ve passed legislation. I just don’t think we’ve heard about it.” It will take changing the current incentive structure to impact the status quo in the way Congress operates.

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Biden’s Inflation Streak Continues

The Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2024 Consumer Price Index was released this morning, and came in at a higher than expected year over year rate of 3.5%. This was the 36th month in a row of a 3% or higher inflation rate starting the month after the American Rescue Plan was signed into law. Today’s report almost guarantees the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates longer than Wall Street hoped.

Under President Biden, prices have risen 19.4% since he was inaugurated. Contrasting him with the seven prior presidents at the same point in their presidencies, only Carter (36.9%) had a larger increase. The same is true for food where Biden has seen a 21.1% increase in food prices, surpassed only by Carter (34.9%).

While there have been claims about how much gas prices have come down, in looking at the totality of Biden’s tenure, prices have gone up 47.8%. But in this category, two presidents have come in higher: Obama (113.5%) and Carter (104.6%).

For those that have moved to electric vehicles, the cost of electricity has increased as well.
Since Biden’s inauguration, electricity prices have gone up 29.3%. No matter the type of car or truck you might own, the cost to operate it has increased dramatically.

Finally, a critical contrast is that since Biden’s inauguration, weekly wages have increased 14.2%, meaning that wages trail inflation by 5.2%. At the same point in time for under Trump, weekly wages had increased 9.4%, meaning wages had outpaced inflation by 3.1%.

With only seven months to go before the election, today’s inflation report was not good news for the White House. The data indicates there is more work to be done to put inflation behind us.

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Who Is The Candidate Of Change In 2024?

The 2024 presidential race will be a Biden-Trump rematch, but compared to today’s sour political climate, the 2020 election was a very different time for the country. We were still in the throes of COVID. The economy was central to the election, but the country was still trying to defeat the virus as closures continued and a vaccine wasn’t yet available. Combined with the protests during the summer, the stage was set for a more unifying positive candidate. Biden’s positive brand image (52-46 fav-unfav) made it easier for voters who didn’t like Trump (46-52 fav-unfav) to vote for him. Exit polls showed the economy was the strong suit for Trump, while Biden won among voters who prioritized the virus. Disruptive change wasn’t the priority it had been in 2016.

The contours of the 2024 election appear much closer to 2016 than 2020. In 2016, the country and economy were seen as on the wrong track. Both party nominees had high negatives, but Clinton had the attributes of the political old guard. Exit polls showed that the most important candidate quality in a choice of four was can bring needed change (39%) over other presidential attributes like has the right experience (22%), has good judgment (20%) and cares about people like me (15%). Among voters who identified can bring needed change as their most important candidate quality, Trump won decisively 82-14.

With the negative outlook on the country and economy similar to 2016, voters are looking for change again. In our survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25), we tested a series of candidate attributes and asked voters whether they applied more to Biden or Trump. On the attribute of can bring needed change, neither Biden nor Trump reached 50%, but Trump had a significant lead over Biden on this attribute (48-33).

Among voters who think the country is headed on the wrong track (67% of the electorate), they see Trump as the candidate of change 60-19. Trump voters view their candidate as the change agent by an overwhelming 93-1, with Republicans at a similar margin of 88-4. In contrast, only 65% of Democrats and 70% of Biden voters see their party’s nominee as the change candidate, with about 1 in 4 Democrats (24%) being undecided. Additionally, the numbers for Biden are very weak among a key part of the Democratic coalition — African-Americans — with only 40% identifying Biden as the change candidate (31-40) and 29% that do not know.

Among important swing groups, independents see Trump as the candidate of change by almost 2:1 (45-26), although Trump’s lead does not reach 50%. With independents being a group that Biden won by 13 in 2020, this result should concern the Biden team. Among young women 18-44, who the Biden campaign intends to target with an abortion message, only 31% say Biden is the candidate to bring needed change (39-31, 29% don’t know). The same trend is seen among millennial/Gen Z voters (43-33, 24% don’t know).

These numbers don’t represent vote intention, only perceptions on this attribute. But these results indicate a lukewarm view from the President’s own party about his ability to be the change agent the country needs. Given the second-term legislative mandate he seeks, the Biden campaign team should be alarmed.