Making Ideas Matter.
The WG’s David Winston discusses how Republicans can sell the tax reform plan after passage:
The 2017 Republican tax cuts will soon become law, but the debate over the GOP’s economic plan to jump-start a growth economy is just beginning. As often happens with tax cut proposals, it can be a tough sell initially for reasons beyond usual voter skepticism.
The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group has released two new reports exploring the views and values motivating the American electorate. As part of the Voter Study Group, the WG’s David Winston used a unique longitudinal dataset of 5,000 voters to explore which issues mattered most in 2016. Read the full report here or take a look at the highlights:
Viewing the electorate through the lens of issue priorities rather than through demographic variables yields valuable insights. Our analysis suggests that the mix of issue priorities revealed more about voter decision-making than demography.
Using voters’ views on the importance of 23 different issues, a cluster analysis produced five distinct groups — the “Democrat/Independent Liberal Elites” (15 percent of the electorate), the “Democratic-Leaning Working Class” (the largest cluster, at 25 percent), the “Moderate Younger Middle-Income” voters (17 percent), the “Conservative Older” voters (21 percent), and the “Conservative Younger” voters (12 percent), with an additional 10 percent unidentified by these clusters because they did not respond to all 23 issue priority questions.
These clusters demonstrated distinct presidential election voting patterns, party preference, and ideological patterns that can provide insight into voters’ decision-making. The conservative, Republican-Leaning clusters appear more cohesive than the two Democratic-Leaning clusters. The “Democrat/Independent Liberal Elites” cluster prioritized issues popular in the media coverage of the election, but not issues that were “very important” to the other Democratic cluster and the country as a whole, such as the economy and jobs. These differences will be consequential for Democrats in the future.
The key issues driving the election, based on what voters found most important, were the economy, health care, jobs, and Social Security. Issues such as climate change, gender, and racial injustice that made up a significant level of the media coverage of the 2016 election were not among the most important issues for most voters. The Rust Belt was key to the election outcome, and the economy was the top issue among Trump voters in that region, and the fifth most important issue among Clinton voters.
Of the four top issues, Trump had the advantage among voters who highly prioritized jobs and the economy while Clinton had an advantage among those who prioritized health care. Neither candidate had an advantage on Social Security. Clinton won a majority of those voters who prioritized 12 of the 23 issues included in the survey, and often by large margins. But Trump won a majority of those who prioritized two of the top three issues, including the most important, the economy.
Voters were not satisfied with the status quo when it came to the economy, and deep economic frustration and desire for change underlied their issue prioritization and political decision-making.
David Winston’s latest for Roll Call reviews the 2016 election and the importance of voter issue priorities:
So what does this analysis show really happened in 2016? Trump won the issues that mattered.
In the future, both political parties need to recognize that the electorate has a clear set of priorities. Issues matter — and going forward, they may matter much more than demographics.
What did voters tell Washington in 2016? They wanted to “rock the boat.” Read through our in-depth 2016 Post Election Analysis to find out how voters defined their choice, and what role deeper concerns over the direction of the country, the economy, and the political system played in that decision.
From our 2014 post-election analysis:
As a result of voter unhappiness not only about the economy but moving forward generally, people expect Republicans in Congress to focus their efforts on proposing and passing policies to improve the economy (71%). They didn’t vote for Republicans simply to be a check and balance on President Obama (23%)…
Ultimately, what this reflects is a country that continues to be unhappy with the current direction of the economy and have decided to give Republicans more governing responsibility…
What policies were most important to voters? What did they think of the role of government? Keep reading here.
From our 2014 post-election analysis:
As the 2014 campaign unfolded, the economy remained the number one issue.
Our post-election survey showed that the top issue overwhelmingly was the economy/jobs, with no other issue coming close. This was true across ideology, party, race, age, gender – virtually any subgroup of the electorate you could define.
President Obama tried to argue that an economic recovery, spurred by his policies, was moving the country forward, but that argument failed to resonate with an electorate that was simply not feeling the recovery. In fact, in the exit poll, 78% of the country said they were worried about the direction the economy would take next year and only 28% said their family’s financial situation had improved over the last two years.
Clearly, the country was looking for better solutions to fix the economy.
Read our full 2014 post-election analysis.
In the 2014 midterm elections, what did voters tell Washington? “Fix it.”
Read through our in-depth analysis to find out more about what voters want, who comprised the 2014 electorate, and what challenges and opportunities are ahead for both parties.
Access the PDF here.
