Education Level and the View of Biden’s Economic Performance

One of the key areas of concern for the Biden administration heading to the election this fall is inflation. Axios reported yesterday that the White House released a memo on inflation, detailing what it is doing to help address rising costs. “It’s an attempt,” as Axios says, “to tell Americans that the White House is focused on bringing prices down at a time when voters are unhappy with the economy, and hold the president responsible for inflation.”

As we’ve written before, some commentators have tried to dismiss the muted economic outlook as partisan, though data shows it’s not just Republicans who are down on the economy and unhappy with the way Biden has handled it. But are there differences for voters of varying levels of education? Trending data from Winning the Issues going back to the first month of Biden’s presidency (February 2021) allows us to look at this question over time and in the context of other economic events.

In the beginning, voters of all levels of education approved of the way Biden was handling the economy, though voters with a postgraduate education were clearly the most approving (69%  approve), compared to those with a bachelor’s degree (56%), or those with at most an associate’s degree or some college experience (51%). At that time, the CPI was 1.7%. 

Following that point, however, we can observe a steady decline in the percent saying they approved of the way Biden was handling the economy, especially among those without a bachelor’s degree. Those with a bachelor’s degree remained moderately positive until October of 2021 (48% approve), the first time that less than a majority of this group said they approved of how Biden was doing.

Those with a postgraduate education remained more or less very positive until early 2022. But in July 2022, each group reached their low point of job approval (30% approve among those with less than a bachelor’s degree, 35% among those with a bachelor’s degree, 38% among those with a postgraduate education). The month before, inflation had peaked at 9.1%.

Since then, generally speaking, voters with a postgraduate education have tracked more closely with those who have bachelor’s degrees, and none of the three groups have had more than 50% approve of Biden’s job on the economy since April 2022. In other words, voters’ views of the president on the economy, while still negative, have reached an equilibrium over the last several months. This is in keeping with the CPI. After its peak in June 2022, inflation eased somewhat, reaching 3% in June 2023. But it hasn’t moved much since, marking 11 consecutive months of 3% or more inflation since the apparent moderation last June. Overall, inflation has been at or above 3% for 37 consecutive months.

Roll Call: Biden and Trump: We can’t possibly lose to this guy

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the importance of independents in the upcoming election — specifically independents who do not have a favorable view of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

The key question is how this important voter group will decide given that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have unfavorables of almost 60 percent. Among independents, it is almost 70 percent, according to the latest Winning the Issues survey (April 27–29). 

Twenty-two percent of the electorate has an unfavorable view of both, higher than the 2016 election exit polls, when 18 percent had an unfavorable view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Among independents, 41 percent are unfavorable to both candidates, up from 27 percent in 2016 exit polls. 

At 41 percent, given that independents made up 26 percent of voters at the presidential level in 2020, it could represent around 11 percent of the electorate in 2024. This means the election could be decided by voters who are unfavorable to both candidates. 

Read the full piece here.

Are Grades or Test Scores The Best Indicator Of Student Knowledge?

In February, we took a look at the belief statement Grades are the best indicator of a student’s knowledge and skill level. Overall, voters did not believe it (36-55) and neither did parents (36-57). This week, we look at data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) that asked voters to choose whether classroom grades or standardized test scores were the best indicator of a high school student’s knowledge and skill. 

While neither option had a majority, voters overall said classroom grades by a margin of +11 (48-37). Parents were among the groups most likely to say classroom grades were the best indicator (56-35, +21). While non-parents also tended to say that grades were better than test scores, it was only by a margin of 8 (45-37). 

Of note, while both African American and Hispanic voters each had nearly one in two prefer classroom grades to test scores, the margins among these groups were smaller compared to voters overall and parents (+6 grades among African Americans; +5 among Hispanics).

Also of note, those who thought a 70% in Algebra 1 indicated readiness for Algebra 2 (42% of the electorate) preferred classroom grades by a margin of 17 (54-37). On the other hand, among the 43% who said a 70% did not indicate readiness, the margin between grades and test scores was only 6 (46-40).

This research joins a larger body of research showing parents rely more on classroom grades than test scores, most notably that of Learning Heroes released at the end of last year. However, it also shows that voters overall — including non-parents — agree that grades are better than test scores. Voters may not believe that grades are the best indicator of student knowledge absolutely, but when the alternative is test scores as currently defined, they tend to prefer the grades.

Roll Call: How voters are responding to the latest campus protests

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about how voters are viewing the latest wave of campus protests.

the reaction to how colleges handled the situation satisfied neither those agreeing nor those disagreeing [with the protests]. Voters who approved of the protests broke even on the handling of the protests, with 40 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Those who disapproved of the protests had a significantly higher disapproval (12 percent/71 percent).

Read the rest here.

When Has A Student Mastered Algebra 1?

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at whether parents and voters thought that a 70% in Algebra 1 indicated readiness for Algebra 2. On an earlier survey for Winning the Issues, voters had previously said a 70% in Algebra 1 did not indicate readiness for Algebra 2, but by a narrow margin (41-45 ready-not ready). This week, we look again at the topic, and also an additional potential threshold for academic readiness.

On the April survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29), we again asked voters whether a hypothetical student who received a 70% in Algebra 1 would be ready for Algebra 2. This time, virtually the same share of voters said students would be ready (42-43 ready-not ready). Parents narrowly said that student was ready (48-45). Non-parents resembled the overall electorate. 

As we observed in the last survey, it is notable that many voters do not think a 70% indicates readiness for the next academic level, even if it is typically considered passing. For this survey, we included another question: was a student earning an 80% ready for Algebra 2?

The share saying that a student with an 80% would be ready for Algebra 2 shot up by 41 points (83-10 ready-not ready). Among non-parents, it also increased by 41 points (81-10). Among parents, it increased by 39 points (87-9).

Overall, 80% was clearly a more acceptable threshold and indicator of readiness for the next subject level. Simply getting a passing grade was not seen as enough. The electorate seems to expect some level of mastery beyond the binary pass/fail. Agreement that a student with an 80% was ready for Algebra 2 held across other groups, including age and partisan groups. There are two questions that remain. First, why is a 70% a more acceptable threshold for some than it is for others? And second, what knowledge does a student with an 80% in Algebra 1 have that a student with a 70% does not?

Roll Call: Biden takes aim at Trump-era tax cuts — and his own campaign promise

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about President Biden’s recent promise to let the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire.

Biden didn’t just violate his pledge to not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000; he shattered it with his boast to the union crowd. 

And, according to House Ways and Means Committee Republicans, if Congress fails to extend the Trump-era tax cuts, it means an average American family of four making $75,000 will get hit with a $1,500 tax increase. “Main Street businesses will face a 43.4 percent tax rate” and “working parents will suffer from a Child Tax Credit slashed in half” along with the standard deduction every taxpayer is due.

Contrary to what Biden and his supporters would have us believe, most Americans got a tax cut thanks to the 2017 law, which Biden loves to demonize. Biden has been peddling disinformation on the 2017 tax cuts for years. When running for president in 2019, Biden said, “There’s a $2 trillion tax cut last year. Did you feel it? Did you get anything from it? Of course not. Of course not. All of it went to folks at the top and corporations.” 

Read the rest here.

The Electorate’s Response To The Latest Wave Of Campus Protests

Over six months after the October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel, tensions on college campuses have flared again. The latest round followed the testimony of Columbia President Nemat Minouche Shafik in front of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce April 17. Protesters have staged sit-ins and other disruptive activity at colleges across the country, including Columbia.  Columbia ultimately canceled its in-person classes for the rest of the semester, and has canceled their graduation ceremonies.

Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (April 27-29) shed some light on how voters are thinking about and responding to the latest wave of protests. The brand image of colleges and universities has become more negative (53-34 favorable-unfavorable) compared to where it was in December (57-30) after the first Ed and Workforce hearing led to the resignation of two of the three university presidents called to testify. Among independents, less than a majority have a favorable view (46-39).

Ivy League universities (38-41) remain slightly negative (39-40 in December), with independents being more negative (32-45).

Among voters overall, only 19% say they approve of how colleges and universities have handled the demonstrations on campus (19-53 approve-disapprove). Among independents, that share shrinks to 12% (12-57).

Similarly, only 23% say they agree with the pro-Palestinian protests happening on college campuses (23-53 agree-disagree). Majorities of Republicans (10-69) and independents (19-54) say they disagree, while Democrats are split (38-36, 26% don’t know). Within the Democratic party, there are distinctions by age. Half of Democrats under 44 say they agree (50-29). But among Democrats 45 and older, only 29% say they agree, with 42% disagreeing and 30% saying they don’t know. 

Voters are clearly dissatisfied with what they have seen happening on campuses in the last few weeks, a continuation of what they would have observed last fall. What’s more, the dissatisfaction is not limited to Republicans. Independents are dissatisfied, too. 

When Is A Student Ready For Algebra 2?

Grade inflation has been a frequent topic we have explored at length. Related to the topic of grade inflation is the concept of mastery. At what level of achievement is a student sufficiently ready to graduate to the next level of subject matter? And how does this level translate to numeric grades? 

On the February survey for Winning the Issues (February 24-25) we asked voters about a hypothetical student who received a 70% in Algebra 1. Was that student ready or not ready for Algebra 2? 

By a narrow margin, voters said that student was not ready, but this was not a majority view (41-45 ready-not ready). Both Republicans (43-43) and Democrats (43-44) are split in their views, while independents had a near majority say that student was not ready (36-48).

Younger voters (ages 18-34) had a majority say the student was ready (56-31 ready-not ready), while older voters (65+) had a majority say that student was not ready (33-54). Parents narrowly said the student was ready, but this was not a majority view (46-40).

There are differences on this question based on the level of concern about learning loss. Those who think students are significantly behind (27% of the electorate) say this student is not ready by a 19-point margin (34-53), while those who think students are about where they normally would have been absent the disruption of the pandemic hold the opposite view (52-32).

A grade of 70%, around a C, is typically considered a passing grade. Yet it is noteworthy that many voters did not think it indicated readiness for the next level of academic content. The question as to what does indicate readiness remains to be addressed. 

Roll Call: ‘Unholy alliance’ – Congress needs to act as global crises threaten West

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the present national security challenges.

For the United States, the Biden administration and Congress, the challenge is not to respond to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as isolated situations — but act together to support a broader, comprehensive policy strong enough to take on what is an increasing threat to the country’s safety and security.

The impasse that has existed for months between the White House and the Congress, exacerbated by intraparty fights over Israel and Ukraine funding, must end. After last weekend’s attack, the consequences of continuing inaction are even more apparent.

Read the rest here.

Elite Schools Get Failing Grades On Campus Antisemitism

Six months after the Hamas attacks in Israel and the controversy that rippled across college campuses in its aftermath, the Anti-Defamation League unveiled its first Campus Antisemitism Report Card. The report looks at 85 colleges and universities, which include schools with the highest levels of Jewish student enrollment as well as the country’s top liberal arts schools. Schools were assessed based on 21 criteria organized into three groups: administrative policies and actions, campus incidents, and Jewish life on campus. 

Of the 85 schools included in the first report card, 27% received a D for “deficient approach.” Another 15%, including schools such as Harvard and MIT received an F. (The University of Pennsylvania, the third school highlighted in the House Education and Workforce December 5 hearing on campus antisemitism, received a D.) Taken together, 42% of the schools received a D or worse in the ratings. 

About a third of the schools (34%) received a C grade, indicating “corrections needed.”  Another 21% received a B, indicating “better than most.” Only two received an A grade, indicating they were “ahead of the pack”: Brandeis University and Elon University. However, as the Report Card FAQs note, letter grades above an F should be interpreted with caution, and are not definitive conclusions as to whether campuses do or do not have antisemitism problems. Readers are encouraged to look at individual campus profiles for a fuller understanding of how each campus is doing. 

Columbia University, which earned a D in the report, will be the subject of another House Education and Workforce Committee hearing on antisemitism later this week. The school’s leaders will be testifying on Capitol Hill this Wednesday morning.