Do Voters Connect Academic Subjects With Real World Skills?

One issue that has been of interest to us is connecting academic subjects with the concrete, usable skills they impart. To what extent do voters connect academic subjects with the real-world skills that students will need as adults?

To begin to answer this question, we asked voters two questions on our latest survey for Winning the Issues (June 14-16). First, how important is it for students graduating high school to understand variables and equations? Then, how important is it for students graduating high school to understand how a mortgage works, including what the monthly payments would be and how long it would take to pay it off? Understanding variables and equations, the foundation of algebra, is arguably foundational for being able to understand the mechanisms of taking out and repaying a loan for a house.

As shown in the table below, majorities of voters said both would be important, but with a gap between the importance of understanding variables/equations (79-18 important-not important) and the importance of understanding a mortgage (92-6). This was similar among parents (78-19 for understanding variables/equations; 93-5 for understanding a mortgage).

The difference in perceived importance is even greater when looking only at those who called each “very important.” Overall, 41% of voters said understanding variables and equations was very important. In contrast, two-thirds (67%) said understanding how a mortgage was very important, a difference of 26 points. The margin was only a little narrower among parents (18 points), with 46% saying that understanding variable/equations was very important and 64% saying that understanding a mortgage was very important.

While understanding both algebra and a mortgage are seen as important, voters clearly place more emphasis on the mortgage, demonstrating the disconnect between the academic subjects typically taught at school and the types of “real-world” skills parents typically say they want for their kids. Last week, we highlighted the recent NPR/Ipsos survey, showing that 40% of parents were concerned about students being prepared for the future. While there are many ways K-12 education could (and should) address this concern, a good first step might be to more closely demonstrate the links between what students are already expected to know when they graduate and the skills they will need as adults.

What Makes Parents Worry About K-12 Eduction?

Previously, we have taken a look at the issue of chronic absenteeism, specifically a study that indicated parents both underestimate their child’s absences and are not all that concerned about the issue either. New data from a recent NPR/Ipsos survey reinforces this conclusion, but it also sheds light on what parents say they are concerned about.

Chronic absenteeism falls low on the list of potential concerns, coming in last (excluding “other”), with 5% of parents reporting being concerned. Other issues liked standardized tests (#11, 9% concerned) and learning loss (#8, 14% concerned) also fell lower in the list of priorities.

What are parents worried about? The top two concerns were bullying (39% concerned) and young people not being prepared for the future (40% concerned). The latter concern is especially shared by those who are not parents. Some 43% of US adults also said that they were concerned about the ability of our K-12 education system to prepare students for the future.

This is a concern that many have shared for some time, though it seems to be growing for parents. Data from a November 2021 survey for Winning the Issues showed only a bare majority of voters overall (52%) were confident in the ability of the US education system to prepare students for the future (52-42 confident-not confident). Parents, however, were more confident (64-32), in contrast to the 40% presently saying this is a concern.

The Cost Of Student Loan Forgiveness In Context

At the end of last month, President Biden announced the latest round of student loan debt cancellation, wiping out $7.7 billion in loans for some 160,000 people. Combined with the other, more targeted student debt cancellation measures Biden has pursued as a piecemeal alternative to the mass cancellation the Supreme Court struck down last year, President Biden has now canceled around $167 billion worth of loans.

To put that number in context, we again took a look at that total cost in the context of funding for other agencies as we did last year for the mass cancellation. For the current purposes, we use the 2024 estimated budget authority for various agencies from the OMB Historical Tables (see table 5.2: Budget Authority by Agency: 1976-2029). So far, the cost of piecemeal student loan forgiveness exceeds the estimated 2024 budget authority for the Departments of Commerce, Energy, Justice, and State combined.

To check our work, we performed the same exercise looking at the estimated outlays for 2024 (see table 4.1: Outlays by Agency, 1962-2029). The conclusion was nearly the same. The cost of Biden’s student loan cancellation to date virtually matches the estimated outlays of the same four agencies combined.

In other words, the cost of loan cancellation to date would have funded four different agencies for this fiscal year. President Biden may not have been able to pursue loan cancellation as he originally envisioned, but the cost of doing so still meets or exceeds the cost of running multiple agencies.

Weekly Wages Lag Inflation 5.5%

The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that inflation has gone up 3.3% compared to this time last year, bringing the cumulative rate of inflation under President Biden since his inauguration – his Presidential Inflation Rate (PIR) – to 20.1%. But how does this compare to weekly wages?

Wages have increased 14.6% since President Biden’s inauguration, an increase but not as much as the rise in prices. Currently, wages trail the PIR by 5.5%.

This means that the purchasing power for the average family has decreased 5.5% since President Biden took office.

Biden Presidential Inflation Rate (PIR) Better Only Than Jimmy Carter’s

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show prices rose 3.3% in May 2024 compared to May 2023, bringing the cumulative rate of price increases since President Biden first took office (the Presidential Inflation Rate) to 20.1%. This is the first time that Biden’s PIR has been greater than 20%.

But how does Biden compare to his predecessors?

The chart below shows the Presidential Inflation rates for Biden and the seven previous presidents at the same point in their terms (May of their fourth year). Only Jimmy Carter has a higher rate of inflation (39.8%) than Biden.

Biden Presidential Inflation Rate (PIR) Breaks 20%

The new numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for May 2024 show that inflation has increased 3.3% compared to this time last year. But the Presidential Inflation Rate (PIR) has crossed the 20% threshold (20.1%).

This means that prices have increased about 20% since President Biden first took office.

Roll Call: Want to understand the Electoral College? Just look at California

The Winston Groups’ David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the impact of California in presidential elections.

However, the elections of 2000 and 2016, when Bush and Trump won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, broke new ground in understanding the relationship between the popular vote and the Electoral College — the California factor. This state’s outsize impact on national vote totals often skews the perception of presidential election outcomes, not a positive when it comes to healing post-election divisions. 

Hillary Clinton and Gore both lost the popular vote outside of California. Gore lost by about 750,000, earning him a total of 267 electors. Hillary Clinton’s loss outside California was worse, down by 1.4 million votes and earning only 232 electors. In contrast, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Biden all won the popular vote outside of California by putting together a winning coalition that crossed the greater than 3 percent threshold, a necessity for either party. 

Read the full piece here.

Biden Ad Analysis By Level Of Education

Recently, the Winston Group released its latest video analysis, looking at the Biden campaign’s “For You” ad. The analysis confirmed what we have observed in past surveys and analyses: President Biden has a credibility problem, especially when it comes to the economy, and has made many statements that voters do not believe. This is particularly true when it comes to key voter groups like independents.

Voters were shown the ad and rated it second by second on a 1-9 scale, with 1 being much less favorable to Biden, 5 being neutral, and 9 being much more favorable to Biden. At the end of the ad voters overall rated it at a neutral 4.9. Among voters with less than a bachelor’s degree (4.8), bachelor’s degrees (5.1) and postgraduate education (4.8), reaction was similarly muted. Typically a 6.0 is a good positive response, and 5.5 a reasonable response. In this case none came close to either of those levels.

The chart below shows the statements in the order they appeared in the ad. Looking at the first three, which set the tone for the remainder of the ad, none of them were believable, for voters overall or by level of education completion. This was especially true for the statement that the US has the strongest economy in the world (30-58 believe-do not believe among voters overall).

Not all of the statements in the ad were unbelievable. A majority overall and by education level believed that Joe Biden passed the law that lowered prescription drug prices and caps insulin at $35 a month for seniors (62-28 among voters overall; 60-29 among voters with less than a bachelor’s degree, 67-26 among voters with a bachelor’s degree, and 66-27 among voters with a postgraduate education).

Overall 9 out of 10 statements did not have a majority believing it. That was true for those with less than a bachelor’s degree. For those with a bachelor’s degree it was 5 out of 10, and among those with a postgraduate education, it was 4 out of 10. That lack of believability resulted in an ineffective ad.

Roll Call: Is Biden channeling Hillary Clinton’s campaign strategy? 

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the Biden campaign strategy in light of Trump’s conviction:

For many Democrats, last week’s jury decision to convict Trump on 34 felony counts was a moment to celebrate. For the Biden campaign, they now believe they have the words to defeat him: “convicted felon.” 

Like Clinton and her deplorables, Biden now has his own line to push his “save democracy” mantra while bashing his opponent. But will it work any better than Clinton’s personal attacks? 

Read the full piece here.

Newt Gingrich: Bidenflation at the Grocery Store

Newt Gingrich cites our inflation numbers in his commentary yesterday:

Winston and Miller rightly make the point that the impact of the economy over an entire presidency is far more useful than tracking one or two months. Viewed over the entire Biden presidency, the economic pain is beginning to resemble the Jimmy Carter years, when people felt everything was out of control.

Read the full piece here.