Author: Caitlin Peartree

Throughout the 2024 campaign, the education policy debate has focused largely on cultural issues particularly on the Republican side. Data from the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (September 18-19; 1,000 registered voters) suggests this would not be the strongest message on the education issue. In a direct contrast, voters say that dealing with learning loss from the Covid-19 pandemic and boosting student achievement is more important than dealing with cultural issues in K-12 schools by a margin of over 3:1 (65-21).

Agreement is bipartisan; with two-thirds of Republicans (66-21), 69% of independents (69-15), and 60% of Democrats (60-28) saying learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priority, though neither party explicitly mentions a forward-looking plan for restoring lost learning in their platform. Even among the conservative GOP base, by more than 3:1, conservative Republicans agree that learning loss should be the priority (70-22).

The same survey for Winning the Issues showed a continued preference for Democrats to handle the issue of education. Voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 12 (38-50 R- D), with independents now preferring Democrats 27-46. But among voters that prefer the Republicans on the issue of education, they want a focus on learning loss and student achievement by a 69-19 margin. Those that prefer Democrats also prefer a focus on learning loss, but by the slightly smaller margin of 63-25.

This data does not mean that cultural issues are not important, but it does mean that learning loss overwhelms cultural concerns as the priority in education. The results also indicate a missed opportunity for both parties in 2024. Going into next year, the party that captures learning loss as part of their education platform will have a significant advantage on the issue.

Earlier this month, the Center for Reinventing Public Education released a report intended to answer the following question: how easy would it be for a parent or advocate to compare student performance pre- and post-COVID? The answer, following the report’s analysis of the ease of finding student performance data and other metrics, was that it was not at all easy for a large number of states.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia were assessed based on the ease with which researchers were able to find pre- and post-Covid data on a variety of metrics, including student achievement levels and achievement growth in English language arts, math, science, and social studies. Overall, 13 (25%) earned an F for the ease with with their longitudinal data could be found. (In some cases, the longitudinal data was not available at all). Only 7 (14%) earned an A for the ease with which their longitudinal data could be found, with 9 (18%) earning a B, 14 (27%) earning a C, and 8 (16%) earning a D.

It’s important to note that the CRPE report was not intended to measure the quality of an individual state’s report card. The report itself noted that some states that had earned Fs nevertheless had easily navigable and “visually appealing” report cards. Rather, this report focused on whether states made it easy to compare pre-Covid data with post-Covid data across a variety of metrics. On balance, the answer was no, and even in “A” states, researchers still had trouble finding some of the metrics and/or disaggregated student data.

Still the lack of readily available longitudinal data means the work of ensuring students are getting caught up is that much harder. From the February survey for Winning the Issues, only 11% of voters thought students were where they normally would have been in their learning even accounting for the Covid disruptions. On the other hand, 27% said that they were significantly behind.

The fall semester is now in full swing at colleges and universities across the country. In preparation for students’ return, many schools updated their policies around protests, harassment, and discrimination, from the University of California and the California State University systems to Harvard University, Indiana University, the University of Virginia, and NYU. At the end of August, chair of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce Virginia Foxx and Missouri Rep. Jason Smith sent letters to institutions requesting that they share their updated plans for responding to campus demonstrations by September 5. Throughout the summer, several colleges and universities facing Title IV investigations were found to be lacking in their responses to antisemitism.

Protest activity has continued into the new semester, although at this point, it is not at the same scale we saw last spring. Cornell made headlines at the end of last month for campus demonstrations that included vandalism of school property. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that some 50 people protested at Columbia, and that a statue at the center of campus was vandalized with red paint. The story came only a few days after the WSJ also reported that a faculty task force “found antisemitism against students pervasive on the campus grounds—in dormitories, clubs and classrooms—and on social media.”

Colleges and universities find themselves in a precarious position with the electorate in how they choose to handle any protests that might arise this semester. From the April survey for Winning the Issues, conducted as the protest activity was ramping up last spring, only 19% of voters approved of how colleges and universities had handled the campus demonstrations (19-53 approve- disapprove). That shrank to 12% approving among independents (12-57).

Similarly, only 23% of voters overall said they agreed with the pro-Palestinian protests happening on college campuses (23-53 agree-disagree). Independents disagreed 19-54.

Voters were clearly dissatisfied with what they saw last spring. That independents were also dissatisfied indicates a larger potential problem that is not inherently partisan in nature. Whether the policy changes that colleges and universities made over the summer will effectively address student concerns and positively impact voters’ views is something we will continue to watch.

Going into an election, one of the important metrics to look at is which party voters have more confidence in to handle issues that are important to them. Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (July 23-25) sheds light on which party voters have more confidence in to handle the issue of education, with trending Winning the Issues data allowing us to see voters’ responses in the context of the past. Looking at the long-term and recent past, two conclusions emerge.

1.) Over the last 25 years, Republicans have tied or beat Democrats in education issue handling only three times: February 2001 (+5 Republican Party), January 2002 (even), and April 2022 (even). No Child Left Behind was signed into law on January 8, 2002; the January 2002 survey fielded from the 21st to the 24th.

2.) Recently, the gap in education issue handling has been growing in Democrats’ favor, although not to the same extent seen in the late 2000s. Currently, education issue handling stands at +15 Democratic Party (36-51 Republican Party-Democratic Party), but the margins were as high as the mid-20s and 30s for Democrats at points in 2007-2009. Independents currently prefer Democrats on education 30-47, while parents prefer Democrats 32-50.

In the month prior, voters preferred Democrats by a margin of 10 (37-47). Independents were slightly less strong in their preference for Democrats (26-44), as were parents (39-44). Democrats went from 83% preferring their own party (7-83) to 91% preferring their own party (3-91).

As preference for Democrats on education appears to be growing, it remains to be seen if Republicans can get the policy discussion back to significantly improving student outcomes.

The full 2024 Republican Party Platform was released and adopted earlier this month at the 2024 Republican National Convention. The platform devotes a chapter to education (“Cultivate Great K-12 Schools Leading to Great Jobs and Great Lives for Young People”), which focuses on issues like parental rights, career preparation, and a call for universal school choice.

The natural next question is what impact voters think universal school choice would have on K-12 education. Data from the latest survey for Winning the Issues (July 23-25), shows that, while voters believe universal school choice will improve educational outcomes for our K-12 students, it a plurality rather than a majority (43-29 believe-do not believe). Parents come closer to a majority (47-30), compared to Democrats (41-27) and especially independents (36-30). Republicans have the highest level of belief, but even then it is only one in two (50-30) for this plank of the party’s educational platform.

Voters were also asked to react to a second statement on education, this one adapted from a speech given at the convention: “In 2016, many people began to doubt the promise of America. … Our standing on the world stage was weak at best. … Our educational system was broken, ranked 30th in the world.”

Overall, 82% believed that the US education system is 30th in the world and that we need to take steps to increase our standing and not fall behind other countries (82-9). This statement had strong, bipartisan levels of belief (84-10 among Republicans; 81-8 among independents; 82-9 among Democrats), and a high level of belief among parents (79-12).

Clearly, voters understand that the US has improvements it could make when it comes to education.