Author: Caitlin Peartree

Recently, 50CAN released the results of a national survey of 20,000 parents. The key takeaway: parents said they relied more on communications from their child’s classroom teachers than they did on grades to understand how their children were doing in school. Until now, surveys of parents had indicated that they primarily relied on classroom grades, often leading to a skewed understanding of whether their child was truly on grade level. Bibb Hubbard, President of Learning Heroes commented, “For the first time, grades are not the number one factor. … Teachers really are on the front lines in terms of communicating to families about where their kids are.”

Overall, 29% said they relied most on parent-teacher conferences or other communication from teachers to determine if their child was a grade level, compared to 20% who said they relied most on grades on their report card and 14% who said they relied most on grades on assignments and tests.

One reason for the change, according to Hubbard, is the “falling importance of grades as a dependable measure of learning.” In other words, grade inflation. Even before COVID, there was a mismatch between student classroom grades and test scores, as we have highlighted in past editions of the Emerging Issues newsletter. In the wake of the pandemic, some states and districts changed or relaxed grading standards. Data from our own surveys supports the assertion that grades may no longer be as important as they once were in evaluating student learning. In the February survey for Winning the Issues earlier this year, a 55% majority did not believe that grades are the best indicator of a student’s knowledge and skill level (36-55 believe-do not believe). Among parents, 57% did not believe it (36-57).

It is important to note however, that according to the 50CAN survey, more parents rely on classroom grades than they do standardized test scores. Only 11% said they relied most on scores on state tests, compared to 20% relying most report card grades and 14% relying most grades on assignments and tests. This is also supported by our own data from Winning the Issues. From the April survey this year, voters overall said classroom grades were a better indicator of a high school student’s knowledge and skill by a margin of +11 (48-37 grades-test scores). Among parents, the margin was +21 (56-35).

Parents may be starting to recognize the limitations of relying on classroom grades alone, but they have not started to rely on test scores at the same scale.

The headlines told the same, familiar story last week. US Math Scores Drop On Major International Test (Chalkbeat). ‘Sharp, Steep Declines’: US Students Are Falling Behind in Math and Science (Education Week). US Students Posted Dire Math Declines on an International Test (The New York Times).

Specifically, the headlines are referring to US students’ performance on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) assessment. Overall, since the last test was administered in 2019, fourth graders in the US declined 18 points in math. Eighth graders declined 27 points, with much of the decline at both grade levels coming from the lowest performing students. The latest results are “just as devastating” as the steep declines measured by NAEP two years ago, Commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics Peggy Carr said. She continued, “I would call these declines sharp, steep declines.”

The declines have also had an impact on US standing in the world. In 2019, US fourth graders had a higher average math score than that of 42 education systems, and were behind 14 systems. Now, they are ahead of only 28, and behind up to 21.

Similarly, in 2019 US eighth graders had a higher average math score than that of 28 education systems, and were behind only 10. Now, they are higher than only 18 education systems, and lower than 19.

In 2021, in light of US performance on and standing in the world as measured by the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), we asked voters whether they believed or did not believe agreed or disagreed with the statement The U.S. is becoming the world’s “C” student. Seven in ten (70%) agreed (15% disagree). In light of these results, it seems to be that the US is continuing in that direction.

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, we asked voters whether dealing with learning loss or cultural issues should be the the education policy priority. By over 3:1, voters said dealing with learning loss (65-21 learning loess-cultural issues). In our 2024 election survey of 1250 voters who voted at the Congressional level, we decided to ask the same question.

Overall there was little change, with 66% saying learning loss should be the priority and 25% saying that cultural issues should be the priority. This held true for Trump voters (67-24) and Harris voters (65-26), as well as independents (71-19), and Hispanic voters (69-24), both of which are key voter groups coming out of the exit polls. This solidifies the earlier finding: voters believe addressing learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priority when it comes to the education debates.

This however is not to say that cultural issues are unimportant, or that they did not play any role in Republicans winning the White House, House, and Senate. Asked to rate a series of issues and news stories on a 1-9 scale where 1 indicated “not important at all,” 5 was “important” and 9 “extremely important,” voters overall rated “cultural issues such as transgender individuals participating in women’s sports” at a 4.91, very close to the threshold for being deemed important. For Trump voters, the issue came in at a 5.00, while for Harris voters, they came in at a 4.86.

“Culture war” issues certainly have standing, and likely played some role in what happened last week. But looking ahead, the party that is best able to offer a compelling message on boosting student achievement will have a significant advantage on the issue, one that goes beyond appealing primarily to either party’s base.

Last week, we took a look at two questions related to the idea that recovering from learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priorities for education policy: whether K-12 education gives students the skills they need to succeed as adults, and whether our current educational system will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had. Generally speaking, the answer to both questions was no. As we saw last week, only 30% believed the statement Our current educational system will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had, while 53% did not believe it.

What would mean that our current educational system was providing students with the skills they needed? At least part of the answer is achieving a certain benchmark of proficiency in math and reading. Some 92% of voters overall say that having 50% of US students proficient or better in math and reading is important (92-4 important-not important), with 77% calling it very important.

Even more importantly, voters connect academic capabilities with the quality of life students will be able to achieve as adults. By more than 2:1, voters believed the statement Having 50% of our students proficient or better in math and reading will mean we have an educational system that will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had (57-21 believe-do not believe). This is also a bipartisan view, with 53% of Republicans (53-24), 53% of independents (53-24) and 65% of Democrats (65-16) believing this statement. Among parents, 59% believe it (59-22).

Voters recognize the importance of proficiency and see its connection to having a quality of life that at least meets if not exceeds that of the present. A next step for advocates and policymakers then might be to declare 50% proficiency, as measured by a test like NAEP, as a national goal, and then define the steps that would need to be taken to achieve this benchmark.

As we noted last week, while much of the recent education policy debate has focused on cultural issues, voters believe that dealing with learning loss and boosting academic achievement should be the priority in education policy. This week, we take that theme a step farther by looking at two follow-up questions from our September survey for Winning the Issues (September 18-19): do voters think K-12 education gives students the skills they need to succeed as adults? And, will our current educational system allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had?

By a six-point margin, voters do not believe that K-12 education in the US gives students the skills they need to succeed as adults (41-47 believe-do not believe). Only Democrats (56-33) and to a slight extent parents (47-43) believe this statement, while Republicans (35-52) and independents (30-57) do not.

By an even larger margin, voters also did not believe our current educational system will allow the next generation to have the same quality of life as you had (30-53). Only Democrats believed this, but it was well shy of a majority view (44-38). Majorities of Republicans (22-62), independents (22-61) and a near majority of parents (35-47) did not believe the statement.

Not surprisingly, voters see the connection between “real world,” adult skills and quality of life. Among those who do said the US educational system does not give students the skills they need to succeed as adults, 83% say the current system will not allow the next generation to have the same quality of life (8-83 believe-do not believe).

Next week, we will take a look at what voters think would mean students were being provided with the skills they need, and a potential policy goal for lawmakers looking ahead to the next Congress.