How To Get Students To Think Like Scientists

On his new Substack, “The Next 30 Years: The Future Of Education Reform,” Robert Pondiscio has a new piece on the importance of content-specific knowledge for building skills like critical thinking. “You want students to ‘think like a scientist’ instead of studying science?” he asks. “You can’t.” He continues,

There is no “thinking like a historian” until or unless you know what the historian knows. The assumption that we can teach, practice, and master all-purpose “skills” like critical thinking, problem solving, even reading comprehension, is education’s search for the Northwest Passage—a shortcut to cognitive riches that exists mostly as a wish. Education may not be “the filling of a pail, but the lighting of a fire,” but no fire can be lit in an empty pail.

Deep, transferable learning depends on domain-specific knowledge, and thinking itself is inextricably linked to the content of thought. A robust foundation of knowledge is not merely the raw material for thought, it is the scaffolding that makes higher-order thinking possible.

Skills like critical thinking and problem solving are complex cognitive processes, requiring a deep, previously existing knowledge base. Advocates, policymakers, and parents may rightly prioritize students’ acquisition of such skills when they think about what a high school graduate should look like. But they should not forget the necessary building blocks it takes to develop those skills.

Roll Call: Trump’s big bang approach to Day 1

In today’s Roll Call, The Winston Group’s David Winston covers Trump’s first day in office.

Beyond the pardons, as Inauguration Day progressed, the contrast between the policies of Biden and Trump was astonishingly obvious. After four years of bad decisions, Trump sent a clear signal that a new sheriff was definitely back in town and determined to change not only the nation’s priorities but how the government would implement those policies. Quite a change from the early days of the first Trump administration.

… Sure, out of the slew of executive orders signed Monday, there are a few that fit the unorthodox category, but Trump may just have set a new precedent of his own with his “shock and awe” policy offensive, which embodies Trump’s journey back to the White House. Given the scope of his executive orders on Day 1, he may just have made Inauguration Day the most important day of every president going forward. 

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: Republican to-do list: Elect Mike Johnson and get to work

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in Roll Call about today’s vote on Mike Johnson’s speakership:

[T]oday’s vote for speaker is just as much a test for the Republican Party as a whole — a test with two critical implications. One of the first duties of a new Congress is the certification of the presidential election scheduled for Jan. 6. 

It is also a chance for the Republican majority in the House to show the American people it can govern. A repeat of the internal but very public fight that faced Kevin McCarthy orchestrated by the same cast of characters would do nothing but undercut the idea that the GOP is ready to lead. 

President-elect Donald Trump has used the transition expeditiously to build expectations for action on Day 1. If there is one thing the electorate clearly wants, it is a focus on getting things done on key issues that dominated the election. A lengthy delay or anything close to it would be the antithesis to that, beginning with the process for certifying the presidential election. Failing to quickly elect a speaker would also jeopardize crucial policy and communications initiatives that will define what Republican leadership means for the country.

Any delay puts that opportunity at risk.

Read the full piece here.

“For The First Time, Grades Are Not The Number One Factor”

Recently, 50CAN released the results of a national survey of 20,000 parents. The key takeaway: parents said they relied more on communications from their child’s classroom teachers than they did on grades to understand how their children were doing in school. Until now, surveys of parents had indicated that they primarily relied on classroom grades, often leading to a skewed understanding of whether their child was truly on grade level. Bibb Hubbard, President of Learning Heroes commented, “For the first time, grades are not the number one factor. … Teachers really are on the front lines in terms of communicating to families about where their kids are.”

Overall, 29% said they relied most on parent-teacher conferences or other communication from teachers to determine if their child was a grade level, compared to 20% who said they relied most on grades on their report card and 14% who said they relied most on grades on assignments and tests.

One reason for the change, according to Hubbard, is the “falling importance of grades as a dependable measure of learning.” In other words, grade inflation. Even before COVID, there was a mismatch between student classroom grades and test scores, as we have highlighted in past editions of the Emerging Issues newsletter. In the wake of the pandemic, some states and districts changed or relaxed grading standards. Data from our own surveys supports the assertion that grades may no longer be as important as they once were in evaluating student learning. In the February survey for Winning the Issues earlier this year, a 55% majority did not believe that grades are the best indicator of a student’s knowledge and skill level (36-55 believe-do not believe). Among parents, 57% did not believe it (36-57).

It is important to note however, that according to the 50CAN survey, more parents rely on classroom grades than they do standardized test scores. Only 11% said they relied most on scores on state tests, compared to 20% relying most report card grades and 14% relying most grades on assignments and tests. This is also supported by our own data from Winning the Issues. From the April survey this year, voters overall said classroom grades were a better indicator of a high school student’s knowledge and skill by a margin of +11 (48-37 grades-test scores). Among parents, the margin was +21 (56-35).

Parents may be starting to recognize the limitations of relying on classroom grades alone, but they have not started to rely on test scores at the same scale.

“Just As Devastating” As NAEP – US Math Scores Drop on TIMSS

The headlines told the same, familiar story last week. US Math Scores Drop On Major International Test (Chalkbeat). ‘Sharp, Steep Declines’: US Students Are Falling Behind in Math and Science (Education Week). US Students Posted Dire Math Declines on an International Test (The New York Times).

Specifically, the headlines are referring to US students’ performance on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) assessment. Overall, since the last test was administered in 2019, fourth graders in the US declined 18 points in math. Eighth graders declined 27 points, with much of the decline at both grade levels coming from the lowest performing students. The latest results are “just as devastating” as the steep declines measured by NAEP two years ago, Commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics Peggy Carr said. She continued, “I would call these declines sharp, steep declines.”

The declines have also had an impact on US standing in the world. In 2019, US fourth graders had a higher average math score than that of 42 education systems, and were behind 14 systems. Now, they are ahead of only 28, and behind up to 21.

Similarly, in 2019 US eighth graders had a higher average math score than that of 28 education systems, and were behind only 10. Now, they are higher than only 18 education systems, and lower than 19.

In 2021, in light of US performance on and standing in the world as measured by the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), we asked voters whether they believed or did not believe agreed or disagreed with the statement The U.S. is becoming the world’s “C” student. Seven in ten (70%) agreed (15% disagree). In light of these results, it seems to be that the US is continuing in that direction.

Roll Call: The great Democratic divide elects Trump twice

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the “existential split” within the Democratic party that has twice led to the election of Donald Trump and now to the Democrats becoming a third party.

What has driven the Democratic Party into third-party status isn’t complicated. There is now, and has been for some time, a potentially existential split in the Democratic Party between working-class voters, historically the key voter group in their coalition, and what I call “Democratic liberal elites,” whose influence isn’t in numbers but in money and the media. 

There is no better example of that disconnect than the events surrounding Kamala Harris’ candidacy, as Democratic power brokers pushed Joe Biden aside hoping for a better candidate.

Lunch bucket Joe was out. Elite progressive Harris was in.

It was this split, rooted in class and ideology, that opened the door to a second Trump presidency and remains a significant challenge to the Democratic Party as it tries to rebuild.

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: Here’s how the media missed the story, from joy to democracy

The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the media narratives that “simply did not pan out, as the results and exit polls show.”

Pundits also argued that because the country was so polarized, there were no neutral voters; everyone leaned toward one party or the other. There was no true political center, independents weren’t really independent, and anyone following the election should use that lens if they wanted to understand it. Their conclusion: The key to this election wasn’t appealing to the middle; it was going to be turnout operations. 

But if that were true, what happened to the vaunted Democratic Party get-out-the-vote effort? In this election, Democrats’ share of the electorate fell to a historic low, and they are now a smaller portion of the electorate than both Republicans and independents, according to the Edison exit polls. 

Read the full piece here.  

Culture Wars vs. Learning Loss in the 2024 Election

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, we asked voters whether dealing with learning loss or cultural issues should be the the education policy priority. By over 3:1, voters said dealing with learning loss (65-21 learning loess-cultural issues). In our 2024 election survey of 1250 voters who voted at the Congressional level, we decided to ask the same question.

Overall there was little change, with 66% saying learning loss should be the priority and 25% saying that cultural issues should be the priority. This held true for Trump voters (67-24) and Harris voters (65-26), as well as independents (71-19), and Hispanic voters (69-24), both of which are key voter groups coming out of the exit polls. This solidifies the earlier finding: voters believe addressing learning loss and boosting student achievement should be the priority when it comes to the education debates.

This however is not to say that cultural issues are unimportant, or that they did not play any role in Republicans winning the White House, House, and Senate. Asked to rate a series of issues and news stories on a 1-9 scale where 1 indicated “not important at all,” 5 was “important” and 9 “extremely important,” voters overall rated “cultural issues such as transgender individuals participating in women’s sports” at a 4.91, very close to the threshold for being deemed important. For Trump voters, the issue came in at a 5.00, while for Harris voters, they came in at a 4.86.

“Culture war” issues certainly have standing, and likely played some role in what happened last week. But looking ahead, the party that is best able to offer a compelling message on boosting student achievement will have a significant advantage on the issue, one that goes beyond appealing primarily to either party’s base.

Roll Call: America may have a new third party – The Democrats

In today’s Roll Call, The Winston Group’s David Winston writes that 2024 may “go down in history as the election the Democratic Party ID hit an all-time low.”

Exit polls ask voters which of the two major parties they identify with, or neither, as the case may be. Comparing the composition of the electorate in the 2024 presidential race with the one in 2020, Democrats dropped a significant 6 points in party ID, going from 37 percent to 31 percent and becoming, de facto, the country’s third party, behind both Republicans and independents.  This year’s major turnabout by voters gave Republicans a historic plus-4 party ID presidential-level advantage that delivered a political hat trick for the party — the White House, Senate and House. 

… Democrats and the media should have seen this coming. The Winston Group’s 2022 post-election analysis noted that Democrats had the lowest percentage of the electorate, 33 percent, that the party had experienced in the past 20 congressional elections. The previous low was 35 percent, which came in the Democratic defeats in the congressional elections of 2010 and 2014. Definite red-flag material. 

Read the full piece here.

Roll Call: This is the Obama-Biden-Harris Legacy

In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes that “this election will be won or lost on the basis of who voters believe will deliver a stronger, more stable economy.”

While Republicans had produced a better economy than Obama’s, their decision to emphasize other issues for the party’s closing argument [in 2018] cost them seats. 

That was the GOP’s mistake. Ironically, for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, their mistake was looking to Barack Obama for economic policy advice. Their post-pandemic stimulus package, the American Rescue Plan, was nothing less than a page out of Obama’s playbook — on steroids — and just about as effective.

Read the full piece here.