This in-depth analysis, using Edison Research exit poll data, and the Winning the Issues post-election study, reviews what happened and why.
For the first time since the Watergate era, independents surpassed one of the major political parties to rank second in terms of party identification. In this presidential election, the percentage of the electorate that self identified as Democrats came in behind independents. This extends a downward trend for Democrats that began in 2012, reaching a record low this year and makes a major difference for Republican prospects going forward.
Party ID — Democrats’ proportion of the electorate significantly drops to a historic low, making Democrats de facto the third party in this election.
- Democrats went from 37% of the Presidential electorate in 2020 to 31% in 2024, a 6-point drop.
- Independents went from 27% in 2020 to 34% in 2024, a significant 7-point increase.
- While the overall percentage of the electorate that was Republican decreased by 1%, going from36% in 2020 to 35% in 2024, Republicans had a +4 party ID advantage, after not having any advantage in the ten prior presidential elections.
- Republicans had a presidential party ID advantage over Democrats in all of the seven competitive states, and independents were a larger portion of the electorate than Democrats in five of those states.
- These shifts were significant positives for Republicans at the Congressional level, who were able to sustain their 2022 party ID advantage of +3 points as independents surpassed Democrats who fell to third place as a portion of the Congressional electorate as well.
Issues — The economy, not abortion.
- The first election of Trump in 2016 was a rejection of the status quo and political establishment. The 2024 election was a rejection of the policy direction of the Biden-Harris administration. The view of the economy was extremely negative. The overwhelming majority said inflation had been a hardship, and a large portion of the electorate said their financial situation had gotten worse in the last four years.
- While Democrats tried to focus on abortion to take attention off the economy, in the end, polls showed Biden’s negative job approval overwhelmed the Harris messaging and tied her to his record.
- The electorate’s prioritizing of the candidate attributes of leadership and change —which Trump won decisively—helped overcome his negative image in voter decision-making.
Key voters — Who moved.
- Harris could not sustain Biden’s performance with independents. He won them by 13 points; her margin was only 3.
- Trump won 46% of Hispanics, a significant increase from 32% in 2020.
- Among women, Harris’ margin was only +8, compared to +15 for Biden in 2020 and +13 for Clinton in 2016.
- Late deciders broke for Trump 51-42.
Read the full analysis here.
