Recently, the Winston Group released its latest video analysis, looking at the Biden campaign’s “For You” ad. The analysis confirmed what we have observed in past surveys and analyses: President Biden has a credibility problem, especially when it comes to the economy, and has made many statements that voters do not believe. This is particularly true when it comes to key voter groups like independents.
Voters were shown the ad and rated it second by second on a 1-9 scale, with 1 being much less favorable to Biden, 5 being neutral, and 9 being much more favorable to Biden. At the end of the ad voters overall rated it at a neutral 4.9. Among voters with less than a bachelor’s degree (4.8), bachelor’s degrees (5.1) and postgraduate education (4.8), reaction was similarly muted. Typically a 6.0 is a good positive response, and 5.5 a reasonable response. In this case none came close to either of those levels.
The chart below shows the statements in the order they appeared in the ad. Looking at the first three, which set the tone for the remainder of the ad, none of them were believable, for voters overall or by level of education completion. This was especially true for the statement that the US has the strongest economy in the world (30-58 believe-do not believe among voters overall).
Not all of the statements in the ad were unbelievable. A majority overall and by education level believed that Joe Biden passed the law that lowered prescription drug prices and caps insulin at $35 a month for seniors (62-28 among voters overall; 60-29 among voters with less than a bachelor’s degree, 67-26 among voters with a bachelor’s degree, and 66-27 among voters with a postgraduate education).
Overall 9 out of 10 statements did not have a majority believing it. That was true for those with less than a bachelor’s degree. For those with a bachelor’s degree it was 5 out of 10, and among those with a postgraduate education, it was 4 out of 10. That lack of believability resulted in an ineffective ad.