In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about the importance of independents in the upcoming election — specifically independents who do not have a favorable view of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
The key question is how this important voter group will decide given that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have unfavorables of almost 60 percent. Among independents, it is almost 70 percent, according to the latest Winning the Issues survey (April 27–29).
Twenty-two percent of the electorate has an unfavorable view of both, higher than the 2016 election exit polls, when 18 percent had an unfavorable view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Among independents, 41 percent are unfavorable to both candidates, up from 27 percent in 2016 exit polls.
At 41 percent, given that independents made up 26 percent of voters at the presidential level in 2020, it could represent around 11 percent of the electorate in 2024. This means the election could be decided by voters who are unfavorable to both candidates.
Read the full piece here.