In this election, Republicans, Democrats and the media expected a significant Red Wave. Projections of Republicans winning 240 seats were not uncommon, and most had the number at 230 or higher. On election night, it was not clear that Republicans could reach 218, and it wasn’t until over a week later that media entities began calling the House for Republicans.
The obvious question is: Why didn’t a Red Wave materialize? While Republicans did a better job at turning out their base than Democrats, the key was Independents who made up 31% of the electorate, their highest percentage of the electorate 1984 forward. For Republicans, in the last 10 elections with a sitting Democratic President they had won Independents. In this election Republicans lost them.
This in-depth analysis, using Edison exit poll data, and Winning the Issues post-election study, reviews what happened and why.
Read the full analysis here.
