Going into the 2020 November election, Joe Biden enjoyed a sizable lead, according to most media polling. Democrats believed the country was moving toward the left; and that, as a result, the political environment was also moving significantly in their direction. If they could tie Republican Congressional candidates in swing districts/states to Trump, while the electorate was moving left, Democrats believed they could pick up a significant number of seats in both the House and the Senate.
But while Biden was winning by more than 4% nationally, the general center-right nature of the electorate produced a temporary two seat advantage for Republicans in the Senate and a pickup of 12 seats in the House (14 overall from the 2018 election), and numerous state legislative wins. The “blue wave” had collapsed, and Republicans found themselves in a much stronger position than anyone anticipated.
Ultimately, 2020 was a two-tier election. Biden defeated Trump for the presidency, but results down ballot showed support for center-right ideas and governance. Overall, a split decision.
This report is based on the Winning the Issues Election post-election survey of 1000 voters at the Congressional level and Edison Research exit polls.
Read our full analysis here.
