Pollster David Winston believes Republicans have better prospects in 2010 than they did in 1994. “This administration has opened the door wide for Republicans,” he says. “It’s even more open than it was in 1994.”

But Winston says Republicans “have the challenge of what people remember from 2006,” when Republicans were voted out of office in Congress. And they must answer what Winston calls the “why us?” question. They need to tell voters “what you’re going to get if we have a Republican majority.”

To read more, turn to weeklystandard.com

“Ultimately, it will be a race about content,” says Mr. Winston. “Especially now, given concern on the Republican side about where this country is headed, voters want to hear how are you going to govern and where would you take this country.

To read the full breakdown of possible candidates, click to alaskadispatch.com

“Basically, the public does not think now is the time to increase taxes, by any stretch,” he said. “Ultimately, it’s going to come back to the Democrats to prove that they’re not increasing taxes on small businesses, which, given the number of small businesses that [fall into high income-tax brackets], they’re not going to be able to do.”

To read more, click to thewashingtontimes.com

Congressional Democrats and the White House “are trying to deal with these other issues when there is only one issue in the room: jobs and the economy,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster.

To read more, click to washingtonpost.com

“Part of the dynamic here is the way President Obama and congressional Democrats govern ha[s] opened this door wide open for Republicans, but the public at this point isn’t just simply saying, ‘Look at how bad [Democrats] are.’ They want to know what you’re going to do — why should they vote for you?”

To read more, turn to thehill.com

To read the report and check out Pew’s methodology and toplines, go to pewresearch.org

“What’s our plan to create jobs and grow the economy?” said GOP pollster David Winston, who is advising the House Republican leadership on the effort. “That’s really what we have to address. We need command focus.”

To read more, turn to washingtonpost.com

Winston argues that the GOP should articulate a specific plan, but he also cautions against putting too much into it.

“One of the reason the door has opened for Republicans is that President Obama has focused on so many other things,” he added. “If you create an 87-point agenda, you’re making the same mistake.”

To read more, click to latimes.com

Polls taken during the healthcare debate last year found that senior citizens over 65 were more strongly opposed to the plan than any other age group — but over time, they were joined by middle-aged baby boomers, who became increasingly negative.

“Older voters are worried that the quality of their healthcare could decline,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster. “That opens a door where they’re willing to listen to Republicans. It’s a huge opportunity.”

To read more: click to latimes.com

“It dwarfs everything,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “It’s sort of like looking at a house and there’s all these things that need repair, but if the roof’s on fire, all these things are secondary. Jobs and the economy are the equivalent of the fire on the roof.”

To read the entire article, click on www.tampabay.com

“People have lost confidence in what the Democrats are doing,” said Republican strategist David Winston. “But that is not enough of a reason to vote for Republicans. Republicans still have to answer the question, ‘Why us?’ “

To read the entire article, turn to http://online.wsj.com

Most folks I talk to say that in order for Rubio to have a fighting chance against Crist, he needs to bring down Crist’s favorables. Of course, that strategy might yield a slight bump in standing, but I don’t believe it is nearly enough to win. Voters already assume politicians do what they need to do to get elected. They already assume Crist has made politically motivated moves in this race. And they vote for him anyways. The problem isn’t Crist’s favorables, the problem is Rubio’s neutral brand image among independents. And the way for Rubio, Crist, or Meek (or any candidate in any race, for that matter) to build that brand is to become the leader on the issue of the economy and jobs.

To read Soltis’ entire piece, turn to pollster.com

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report and Philip Klein of the American Spectator join Kristen for a discussion about Republican women succeeding in recent primaries, who’s to blame for unemployment numbers, and why original concept movies are rare these days.

Boehner released new data produced by Republican pollster David Winston. The survey of 1,000 registered voters just before the Memorial Day recess showed that 62 percent believed that by not passing a budget, Congress missed an opportunity to “rein in spending.”

Access the full article (with an account) on rollcall.com

Republicans are hanging their words partially on a Winston Group poll, which showed that 62 percent of those surveyed believe that Congress’s failure to pass a budget means that it is “missing an opportunity to rein in government spending and provide fiscal discipline that economists say is needed to create jobs and grow the economy.”

To read the full article, turn to
politico.com

David Winston, a GOP pollster who worked on the 1994 Contract with America Republican majorities, says the 2010 elections offer a “real opportunity,” but so does 2012. The reason: The Bush tax cuts expire starting later this year, and the economy could get socked. “I don’t view this year as a one-shot deal.”

To check out the fill Washington Whispers post, go to usnews.com

“Branstad is proving that his credentials and an economic focus as a conservative puts together a large majority coalition,” said David Winston, a national Republican pollster. “It’s a good position for him to be in, and positions him well for the general election.”

To read the full article, click on desmoinesregister.com

“This isn’t a college debate about who made the best points,” said Republican strategist David Winston, who has seen tea party candidates rising as they focus their arguments on deficit spending and federal overreach. “If they’re going to win races, they have to prove they can build a coalition.”

To read the full article, turn to latimes.com

But GOP strategists are careful to note that while Palin, a controversial figure in her own party, has inspired some, the new class of conservative female candidates has largely been motivated by the economy and fervent opposition to the Obama administration’s agenda.
“I certainly don’t think that Sarah Palin has had nothing to do with this,” Soltis says, “but it is the huge concerns about the economy and unemployment that are energizing people across the board — including Republican women.”

To read the entire article, click on npr.org

“It’s a remarkable situation, given where things were a year ago, where Republicans clearly have an opportunity to do really well,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who concentrates on Congressional races. “The door is open in terms of potential. But we have to answer the question, Why us?”

To read the full article, go to nytimes.com

“There’s a certain level of infrastructure that’s certainly important,” says David Winston, a Republican pollster. “But ultimately, it’s the broader message and the American people’s sense of who they want to have govern the country that matters.”

To read the full story, turn to CSMonitor.com

However, David Winston, a GOP pollster in Washington, contends that for Democrats in moderate, swing districts such as Kilroy, Driehaus and Boccieri, the health-care bill does mean trouble, in part because of the overall political climate.

“You voted for a package people didn’t want and, two, you didn’t focus on the issue they really care about, which is jobs,” he said.

To read more, click to dispatchpolitics.com

“One of the problems that Democrats have had is they understood late that they’ve been on the wrong issue. This has been about jobs and unemployment. When you have three months of unemployment 10 percent or higher, the public is unhappy.”

To read the complete article, turn to theKansas City Starwebsite.

“I think the conservative brand is generally fine,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “But the Republican brand has difficulty at this point. And there’s no question that, until the party stops being the opposition party and starts being the alternative party, it’s not going to help its brand.”

To read more, turn to DesMoinesRegister.com

David Winston, a pollster who advises the Republican leaders in Congress, said that when populism is married to a positive agenda that gives voters a concrete alternative to the status quo, it can alter the landscape, as it did when Republicans captured the House in 1994.

“The challenge is not tapping into a populist environment, it’s creating an alternative that brings about the next political shift,” he said.

To read more of Stevenson’s article, turn to nytimes.com

David explains the GOP’s slow implementation of social media and reaching out to young voters.

“This is not a simplistic problem,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “You watched Democrats go through this after the 1994 election. It’s the constant tension within any political party.”

To read the full article, click to the Washington Post’s website.

The Right Idea, Episode 32 – The Intellectual Direction of the Right from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

In this week’s 2nd episode, Kristen, Ross and Reihan discuss whether conservative political discourse has fallen by the wayside to allow for more entertainment value. Have we really become “more Glenn Beck and less William F. Buckley”?

The Right Idea, Episode 31 – Middle Class Voters from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

What new strategies will help Republicans connect with Middle America? Kristen chats with the writers of “Grand New Party” – Ross Douthat from The New York Times and Reihan Salam from the New America Foundation – about key issues leaders must address when reaching out to voters.

David Winston, a Republican pollster, agrees. He says that Obama “has to do a kind of reset on health care and figure out if he can regain the initiative on the policy debate, since he clearly lost the month of August.” Winston cautions, however, that Obama has bigger problems than his message. “One of the difficult stress points of a majority coalition is how you keep your base and the people beyond the base together to sustain that coalition. Health care is the first clear example where the two have divergent views.”

If Republicans are heartened by Obama’s summer stumble, that doesn’t mean they should relax. Republicans, says Winston, should work to create a “positive policy choice”…

To read the full article, access nationalreview.com

The Right Idea, Ep. 18 – Message Discipline from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

Kristen, Rob and Mark continue this week’s conversation about messaging and strategy by going into the debate over whether public forums like the tea parties are effective or not.

The Right Idea, Episode 17: New School Strategy from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

In the first installment of TRI’s second season, the Winston Group’s Kristen Soltis chats with Rob Kubasko and Mark SooHoo from Campaign Solutions about the differences between Old School and New School tactics and how leaders need to focus more on “the message” itself.

The Right Idea, Ep. 12 – Republican Identification from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

Kristen Soltis, Jill Bandes and Jon Henke continue to discuss Arlen Specter’s switch from the Republican party to the Democrat party and its implications, as well as questions of how conservatism should be defined.

The Right Idea, Ep. 11 – Working with Unfavorable Numbers from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

The Right Idea returns with 2 new installments this week, featuring Jill Bandes of Townhall.com and Jon Henke, a political and policy consultant. They discuss with Kristen Soltis possible solutions for the Republican Party regarding Arlen Specter’s defection and Justice Souter’s retirement.

The Right Idea, Ep. 10 – The Direction of the GOP from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

Kristen Soltis, Mindy Finn and James Kirchick address long-term solutions to the GOPs recent setbacks, looking at which direction they need to take with policies and messaging.

“Clearly the Democrats want to portray the Republicans as the ‘Party of No’ and the challenge for Republicans is how do they become an effective opposition party at the same time defining a clear choice?” said David Winston, a prominent strategist and pollster who works closely with the congressional Republican leadership. “Once people see the Republicans defining a choice, the ‘Party of No’ goes away.”

Read more of CNN’s analysis on CNNPolitics.com

Yesterday’s departure of Sen. Arlen Specter from the Republican Party re-opened the debate over the ideological direction of the Republican Party. Did the GOP move away from Specter, or was it Specter that left the GOP? Where do the American people fall?

My focus on this site over the last few weeks has been on young voters. And most of the news I have had for the Republican Party has been bad news, presenting a picture of a young cohort less convinced of the virtues of limited government, more supportive of gay marriage, and more inclusive of minority groups less prone to voting Republican.

In all of this, the overall ideological makeup of young voters has not yet been examined. Are young voters more liberal than older voters? Are they more likely to identify as Democrats? Recently on The View, Meghan McCain declared that 81% of young voters identified as Democrats. Though I appreciate Ms. McCain’s efforts to draw attention to the GOP’s troubles with young voters, the number is greatly exaggerated (and I would argue that exaggerating the problem does the cause no favors).

Read the rest of the article on Pollster.com

Kristen Soltis talks to James Kirchick of The New Republic and Mindy Finn of Engage about the political implications of the torture issue, how the GOP may be affected and perceived, and whether or not this a problem for Democrats as well.

In this week’s second installment of “The Right Idea,” Kristen, Jen and Doug talk about new technology and how the GOP can use it to it’s advantage, especially when reaching out to young voters.

In this episode of “The Right Idea,” JP Freire of the American Spectator and Republican “smart guy”Alex Lara join Kristen Soltis in discussing Obama’s overseas trip, pirates, missiles, and how to act around the Queen.

Episode 4 continues with Kristen Soltis, Moira Bagley, and John Feehery discussing monetary issues in the US today, specifically with entitlements. How can the GOP address what’s wrong with this issue? Can they use it to reach out to young voters?

In this episode, Matt Moon, Nicki Kurokawa, and Kristen Soltis discuss the difficulties of standing in opposition to policies coming out of the White House. How can the GOP legitimately criticize actions that they may have engaged in themselves over the last decade? What are the benefits and drawbacks of offering alternatives?

Republican leaders are consciously muting their rhetoric against President-elect Barack Obama for now for fear of a public backlash as he enters the White House with sky-high approval ratings.

Even House Republicans, who have become significantly more conservative this year in makeup and in their leadership ranks, have largely held their fire at the behest of Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), who has personally talked warmly about Obama and privately urged other Members to temper their rhetoric. In the Senate, Republicans are temporarily opting against all-out partisan warfare as they wait to see how Democratic leaders will run the chamber in the weeks and months ahead.

In the House, Boehner and other leaders have talked behind the scenes, including at last weekend’s leadership retreat, about making a distinction between Obama and Congressional Democrats — who are much less popular than Obama and are already tightening the rights of the minority in contrast to Obama’s message of bipartisanship.

The strategy already appears to be paying some dividends in that Obama has moved in the GOP’s direction on some tax cuts in the stimulus package and has continued a serious effort to reach out to Republicans. Obama also helped get commitments from Democratic leaders, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), for an open process on the stimulus package with Republican opportunities for input.

“Republicans’ best friend right now is Obama because Pelosi ends up getting triangulated,” said Ron Bonjean, chief executive officer of the Bonjean Co. and one-time spokesman for former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). “Pelosi right now is promoting martial law and taking away minority rights while Obama is casting himself as bipartisan.”

Obama also accepted an invitation from House GOP leaders to address their conference, likely within three weeks after his inauguration.

That doesn’t mean the honeymoon will last forever, or that the GOP won’t quickly point out their differences with Obama, especially when he fleshes out his agenda later this year.

Indeed, Boehner, Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.) and other Republicans have been publicly wary of Obama’s spending plans, charging that the country can’t spend its way to prosperity.

But the criticisms have lacked a sharp sting, for now.

“If Republicans attack too early and don’t give him a chance to govern, we come off as sore losers and lose any credibility that we’re rebuilding,” Bonjean said.

Rob Collins, Cantor’s chief of staff, said “it would be simply irrelevant if we were destructive at this point,” noting that Obama hasn’t come out with many specifics to react against and has instead made overtures to Republicans.
“If Obama’s willing to give us a couple hundred billions of dollars in tax cuts, then we’ll talk,” Collins said, adding that Obama has to deal with the liberal wing of his party. “He’ll have more problems with his liberal left than with conservatives in the first six months.”

Republicans said there will be plenty of time later in Obama’s term to attack Democrats for the inevitable excesses that come with one-party rule.

Republican leaders also are buying into the idea that they need to focus on providing alternatives and solutions to appeal to the American people, rather than on attacks, with last year’s debate over oil drilling as one model for success.

To that end, Boehner tasked Cantor to head a working group on the economy that will meet Thursday, with other similar efforts to come.

“We’ve got to start talking to people about ideas and solutions and how to get things done, and then we can talk about the politics and who deserves to run the place,” Collins said.

GOP consultant David Winston, who advises House Republicans, said last year’s successful energy protest could prove a model for the new Republicans because it was focused on solutions and a clear choice rather than partisan attacks.

“Just simply being the ‘party of no’ is not the way to prove you can govern,” said Winston, who is also a Roll Call contributing writer. Republican leaders “believe if you are going to prove you are ready to govern, you better have something better as an approach.

“It’s not about defining your opponent per se, it’s about defining what the choice is,” Winston said. “That will produce a different tone as a result.”

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans also appear to be cooling their heels as they wait for Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) next moves on the floor.

With a bare minimum of Senators — 41 — giving them the ability to filibuster, Republicans said they realize they cannot operate as they did in the 110th Congress, where they blocked many otherwise bipartisan bills because Reid would not allow GOP Senators to offer amendments.

“We’re outnumbered, and we’ve got limited resources. We’ve got to pick our battles,” one senior Senate GOP aide said.

That dynamic was on vivid display Sunday, when Reid forced a rare weekend vote on a package of lands bills that had been held up for years by Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.). Coburn had attempted to get Reid to agree to a finite list of amendments, but Reid used procedural moves to block out any GOP proposals from being considered.
Last year, that tactic spelled instant death for the measure as it failed to garner enough votes to bring it up. But this time, nine Republicans joined all Democrats in rolling over Coburn’s objections.

“I don’t think that this was one our leaders wanted to pick a fight on, but I think there will be times that we will and we’re going to have to or this is going to become the norm rather than the exception,” said GOP Conference Vice Chairman John Thune (S.D.), who was the highest- ranking Republican leader to attend the vote.

One Republican Senator acknowledged that the absence of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and other high-ranking GOP Senators on Sunday was a clear signal that Republicans were allowed to vote however they liked on the lands package — a stark departure from the past two years.

And Republican Senators said they were not concerned that Reid appeared to be starting the 111th Congress like the 110th ended, despite Reid’s repeated promises to run the Senate floor in a more bipartisan manner.
“I could act like this was some big deal, but it’s been going on now for about four years,” Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said of the long-standing feud between Reid and Coburn over the lands bill. “I do think that you will find unity on issues regarding protecting minority rights. I think you will definitely see that this year, but this one again, has a long history.”

A former GOP leadership aide said: “What we’re going to see right now is a period of every man for himself.”
The former aide explained that given their reduced numbers and Reid’s apparent willingness to use his majority to push through legislation, lawmakers will, at least in the short term, be more likely to abandon their traditional loyalty to the party if Democrats give them enough incentives.

In the case of the public lands package, Reid was sure to stock it with bills that had at least one Republican as a primary sponsor and that were a high priority in their home states.

A current GOP leadership aide acknowledged Democrats should generally be able to find a way to avoid a filibuster. “Anybody with a bill can find a way to get two votes,” the aide said.

Senate Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) indicated that he is waiting for Reid to show he is serious about allowing more GOP amendments on the floor this time around.

“This business of the Majority Leader using his authority to prevent amendments, to prevent debate, we hope we don’t see this” during the 111th Congress, Alexander said.

John Stanton contributed to this report.

Original article on rollcall.com

WASHINGTON (CNN) — A fresh, invigorating appeal to voters. That’s the challenge Republicans face as they set out to pick a new leader for a party driven into the wilderness after a disappointing 2008 general election.
But which candidate’s philosophy will convince the party faithful of a revival? Some say whomever can embrace new approaches employed by Democrats this year will not only win out but will bring the party back to a majority in government.

The article also features insight from David Winston on the candidates and the directions they’re taking to earn their votes.

Analysis: GOP revival hangs on party’s next leader [CNN.com]

Following an election that has left Republicans with no clear vision about how to regain power, the normally low-profile race to head the GOP’s national committee has turned into a six-man showdown that has opened rifts along racial, regional and ideological lines.

Six Vying to Become The Next RNC Chair [WashingtonPost.com]

The truth is, voters don’t want to hear why the other guy is bad. They want to know why you are a better choice. People want hear how candidates will govern, how they will solve problems and what they really stand for.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) put it this way: “Wal-Mart doesn’t get ahead by attacking Sears but by offering better value.” In the past two elections, Republicans failed to win over voters because they failed to tell them how they would address their concerns.

The GOP has spent the past 10 years and hundreds of millions of dollars trying to drive up Democrats’ negatives. Sometimes they succeeded, but rather than solidifying the GOP’s majority coalition, over time, this self-defeating strategy made it permanently vulnerable. Republicans found themselves with razor-thin victories, no mandate to govern and growing unfavorable ratings.

Rothenberg also argued that Congressional Republicans were forced to employ a negative attack strategy because sitting presidents and presidential nominees define a party, not Congressional candidates. He’s half right.

Yes, President George W. Bush’s job approval was a significant drag on the ticket. But it is possible for a ruling party to overcome an unpopular incumbent. Just ask France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy, who managed to win election despite the huge unpopularity of fellow party member and former President Jacques Chirac.

He did it by making a clean break with Chirac’s policies and offering up a positive agenda of his own. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), however, failed to convince voters that he had a viable plan to deal with an increasingly troubled economy. Instead, he predictably fell back on a politics-as-usual attack strategy to define Obama rather than define himself and his vision to voters.

Instead of focusing on the merits of his own tax plan or trying to make his health care plan comprehensible, his campaign relied on unserious, negative ads like the “sex ed ad” questioning Obama’s character. It didn’t work.

As Daniel Finkelstein observed in the London Times about the McCain campaign’s attack spots, “They are ignoring a golden rule of politics. Your attack ads also shape views of you. Whether or not the [the Britney Spears/Paris Hilton ad] makes Mr. Obama look smaller, it certainly makes John McCain look smaller.”

In fact, it is possible to overcome a negative national political environment and do it without resorting to harsh personal attacks.

Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.) is a good example. Rothenberg attributes his victory to negative attacks on his Democratic opponent. I did the polling for this race and saw the dynamics in play up close.

Souder spent 2007 and the first half of 2008 building his positives with voters. During the campaign, he spent half his time reinforcing those positives and the other half defining a choice by drawing a fair and effective contrast with his opponent’s qualifications and issue positions.

This was not, however, a traditional “negative” attack campaign. First, it was a balanced approach of positive and contrast tactics. Second, Souder’s campaign reflected the distinction between a contrast ad that defines a substantive choice between two candidates based on issues or résumés as opposed to over-the-top negative spots questioning a candidate’s integrity and morals in a personal way.

In recent losing elections, we’ve seen more of the latter, and it has negatively impacted the Republican brand. Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) was ill-served when his campaign ran a spot that implied now-Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), as state treasurer, had invested state funds in organizations with alleged ties to terrorists. It was ridiculous, and it backfired.

The same could be said of the famous “blond bimbo” ad against Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in the 2006 Tennessee Senate race, aired by the Republican National Committee and without now-Sen. Bob Corker’s knowledge. Internal polling showed the ad cost Corker his lead and made the race much more competitive than it should have been.

The attack on now-Sen. Jim Webb (D) in the Virginia Senate race as a purveyor of pornography and the “godless” ad used in Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R-N.C.) losing reelection battle are still more egregious examples of the kind of attack media Republicans must reject.

For too many operatives, when it comes to campaign strategy, defining the opponent isn’t one option; it’s the only option. But there is another way. We’ve seen a model that worked for Republicans — the energy issue — even in the very negative political environment of the past year.

By coalescing behind a strong idea, Republicans were able to win this issue, not through an attack strategy designed to define Democrats but by positively arguing their case to the American people for an “all-of-the-above” energy policy. It was a good first step on the road back from the wilderness that we can learn from.

Republicans won’t regain a majority coalition until they reject attack-based campaigns and prove Republicans are ready to govern by first winning issues.