•About half have a college degree or higher. That’s more than Iowa adults or Americans in general.
•The proportion who consider themselves born-again Christians hits in the high-40 percent range, slightly above the range for the rest of the nation.
•Mirroring the national picture, they’re more likely to be male, evidence of the classic gender gap between Republican voters and Democratic voters.

But even knowing the type of person the typical Iowa caucusgoer is, it’s too early to tell how turnout will be.

“If it snows heavily it could be a completely different turnout,” Republican pollster David Winston said. “You’re trying to put your finger on mercury a little bit.”

To read more, turn to usatoday.com

“The key for Newt is to focus on his policy ideas and solutions for problems facing the country, which is his strength,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “When the discussion about him is not about that, he does not do as well.”

To read the full article, turn to washingtonpost.com

“He’s got to create outcomes and results supported by his communication in order to rebuild his coalition,” Winston said. “At this point, the White House has to figure out the age-old problem of how to build a majority while keeping the base happy at the same time.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51516.html#ixzz1GyuPGcPP

“He’s got to realize the reason he lost independents,” says Winston of the president. “He thinks it was about communications. It wasn’t. It was about substance and policy.”

Read more at the Washington Examiner

“What you’re pointing toward is a critical element in understanding where this election is going,” says David Winston, a well-known GOP pollster in Washington, D.C. “Has the electorate moved that much in terms of its ideology? Given what we’ve seen in previous years, based on election-year exit poll surveys, the numbers we’re seeing now are dramatically different. The question is, are they correct?”

The article also includes insight pulled from The WG’s Kristen Soltis, from her recent Huffington Post piece.

To read the entire article on Wisconsin’s electorate, turn to jsonline.com

Most folks I talk to say that in order for Rubio to have a fighting chance against Crist, he needs to bring down Crist’s favorables. Of course, that strategy might yield a slight bump in standing, but I don’t believe it is nearly enough to win. Voters already assume politicians do what they need to do to get elected. They already assume Crist has made politically motivated moves in this race. And they vote for him anyways. The problem isn’t Crist’s favorables, the problem is Rubio’s neutral brand image among independents. And the way for Rubio, Crist, or Meek (or any candidate in any race, for that matter) to build that brand is to become the leader on the issue of the economy and jobs.

To read Soltis’ entire piece, turn to pollster.com

Boehner released new data produced by Republican pollster David Winston. The survey of 1,000 registered voters just before the Memorial Day recess showed that 62 percent believed that by not passing a budget, Congress missed an opportunity to “rein in spending.”

Access the full article (with an account) on rollcall.com

Republicans are hanging their words partially on a Winston Group poll, which showed that 62 percent of those surveyed believe that Congress’s failure to pass a budget means that it is “missing an opportunity to rein in government spending and provide fiscal discipline that economists say is needed to create jobs and grow the economy.”

To read the full article, turn to
politico.com

“Branstad is proving that his credentials and an economic focus as a conservative puts together a large majority coalition,” said David Winston, a national Republican pollster. “It’s a good position for him to be in, and positions him well for the general election.”

To read the full article, click on desmoinesregister.com

Politics: “Tea Party” is a bit of a loaded term on all sides of the debate. Does that make it hard to get an accurate reading?
Soltis: It depends on the question that you ask. Some pollsters ask “Do you support the Tea Party?” I believe there was a question some months ago, “Do you sympathize with the Tea Party?” We tried to ask a question that was pretty strong, so it was either yes or no, not how you feel about it. We wanted to get the most definite group.

To read the entire interview, go to politicsmagazine.com

“It’s a good sample size,” David Winston, polling director of the Winston Group that did the poll for an education advocacy group, told the Ballot Box blog of The Hill newspaper.

The Tea Party adherents broke down 28% independent, 17% Democrat and only 57% Republican. Not coincidentally, this bipartisan breakdown has been the way that Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin has often described movement members as “commonsense Americans” worried and….

…angered by the over-reaching one-party control of Democrats in Washington these last 15 months, rooted initially in opposition to Obama’s $787 billion government economic stimulus package.

Read the full story at latimesblogs.com

If Obama’s numbers continue to slide, his policy agenda is at serious risk. Don’t think for one moment that members of the House and Senate don’t pay attention to these national polls. They do, especially those who find themselves in competitive races. Equally important, their own internal state or district polls will likely also have a presidential job approval question. Whether Obama is under 50% or under water back home could and, in many cases, will impact their voting behavior in D.C.

To read all of David’s article, turn to pollster.com

The Right Idea, Episode 33: Health Care Reform from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

With Olympia Snowe giving the latest healthcare reform bill the thumbs up, can we really call it bi-partisan? Kristen chats with the Washington Times’ Andrea Carpenter and the Independent Women’s Forum’s Allison Kasic about the lastest in healthcare reform developments, as well as the bigger issue of the U.S. economy.

Hollywood, Calif. – Sept. 8, 2009 – Viacom (NYSE: VIA and VIA.B) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, along with initiative partners AT&T, Capital One Financial Corporation and NYSE Euronext, today launched Get Schooled with a national broadcast and an education conference at the Paramount Pictures lot. The five-year initiative aims to generate greater awareness and engagement in addressing the nation’s education crisis and to offer practical resources and support to students.

“We couldn’t be having this conversation at a better time,” said Bill Gates, Co-chair of the Gates Foundation. “The education crisis is damaging our ability to compete in the global economy, and we need to do more to engage all Americans – from policymakers and corporate leaders to families and young people – in our efforts to support students in completing their education and achieving their dreams.”

The Get Schooled initiative also announced today the results of a poll conducted by The Winston Group showing that an overwhelming percentage of Americans believe that the United States is lagging behind other nations when it comes to the quality of education. Eighty-one percent of survey respondents said that they do not believe that the United States has the best public education system in the world. Eighty-nine percent believe that if American students are not receiving as good of an education as their overseas counterparts, it will have a negative effect on the American economy.

“We are committed to raising awareness and, even more importantly, to converting that awareness into action,” said Philippe Dauman, President and CEO of Viacom. “Improving the workforce readiness of America’s upcoming generations is a business imperative. By 2020, our nation may be short 14 million college-educated workers, and the trends are moving against us. The cost to the U.S. economy of students unprepared to enter college and the workforce is estimated at close to $4 billion dollars annually in lost wages and remedial education costs. But the long-term cost is exponentially greater.”

From 2006 to 2016 there will be more than two million new jobs created requiring at least an associate degree or postsecondary training, according to the New Democratic Leadership Council. However, the reality is that two-thirds of American ninth graders will not be prepared for college within four years, and half of those who actually go to college will never earn a degree.

“Investing in a well-educated workforce may be the single most important thing we can do to help the U.S. remain a leader in the global economy,” said Charlene Lake, Senior Vice President for Public Affairs and Chief Sustainability Officer for AT&T. “If we come together as business leaders, policymakers, parents and as a community, we can ensure that today’s students have the skills and knowledge for meaningful careers, and that American businesses have a deep and diverse talent pool from which to hire. AT&T is proud to be a partner in Get Schooled.”

As part of Get Schooled’s mission to foster a national dialogue on education issues, AT&T is organizing “screening parties” and discussions around the premiere of the TV broadcast of Get Schooled: You Have the Right. Local events, organized with community partners, will take place in 14 cities across the nation.

“NYSE Euronext is proud to partner with all the sponsors of the Get Schooled initiative. Improving America’s education system is critically important to the future of our children and our prosperity,” said Duncan L. Niederauer, CEO of NYSE Euronext. “To continue developing future generations of innovators and investors, we must ensure that our young people are equipped with the necessary skills to compete in the global marketplace and succeed in life. At NYSE Euronext, we have a long-standing commitment to financial literacy, and we are pleased to offer our expertise and brand behind this great initiative.”

“At Capital One we recognize that one of the most important investments we can make in the future is an investment in education,” said Carolyn Berkowitz, President of Capital One Foundation and Vice President for Community Affairs at Capital One. “We are proud to support programs like Get Schooled to help reinforce the importance of financial literacy. Our goal is to help give students a solid foundation of money management knowledge and skills so that they can make wise financial choices in the future.”

The launch of Get Schooled, at the Paramount Pictures lot, includes a conference featuring a line-up of distinguished speakers: Bill Gates, Philippe Dauman, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Education Tony Miller, filmmaker Davis Guggenheim, author and political columnist Arianna Huffington, New York City Department of Education Chancellor Joel Klein and Los Angeles-area High School Athletic Director Stephen Minix. The education conference will be attended by an audience of almost one thousand – including corporate and nonprofit partners, students, thought leaders, celebrities and other education stakeholders. Its goal is to highlight fresh perspectives on ways to dramatically increase high school graduation rates and college completion rates. The speakers will draw from their personal and professional experiences, sharing insights on how to ensure that all students receive a top-notch education and are ready to compete in a global marketplace.

The launch events on the Paramount Pictures lot also include the premiere of the Get Schooled: You Have the Right documentary featuring President Barack Obama, Kelly Clarkson and LeBron James, and three professionals who work alongside them, which will air across all of Viacom’s U.S. networks, including BET, MTV, VH1, CMT, Comedy Central, Spike TV, TV Land and Nickelodeon, at 8 p.m. Eastern/Pacific and 7 p.m. Central.

ABOUT THE WINSTON GROUP POLL
The Winston Group survey of 1,000 voters nationwide probed Americans’ views about education. The telephone survey was conducted Aug. 23-27, 2009 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

ABOUT GET SCHOOLED
Get Schooled is a national program that connects, inspires and mobilizes people – from policymakers and corporate leaders to communities and kids – to find effective solutions to the problems facing our education system. It provides resources and information, community outreach and creative programming that engage a range of audiences to address America’s education crisis. Get Schooled’s co-developers are the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Viacom, including BET Networks, MTV Networks and Paramount Pictures. The initiative combines the Foundation’s deep knowledge of education reform with the power of Viacom’s diverse brands to raise awareness about the challenges facing America’s public education system and provide information and solutions for students and their families.

To find out more about Get Schooled and the initiative’s groundbreaking national television premiere airing today, visit www.getschooled.com.

1. Support for the stimulus bill has slipped quite a bit going from 63-24 in January to 51-39 in this survey. That means the margin went from +39 to +12, a significant shift. Additionally, Independents are evenly split with 45% approving and 44% disapproving.

2. In terms of shortening the recession, 39% of the electorate think it will while 45% do not.

3. In looking at the need for bipartisan support, versus Democrats only, 81% think it is important for the bill to have support of both parties, while 13% say it is OK for it pass just on Democrat support.

4. Obama’s Job approval is 62-15, while Pelosi’s fav-unf is 10-30, and among Independents she is at 9-36 (they ask ID slightly differently than other surveys).

5. Congressional Republicans are at 32-60, while Congressional Democrats are at 48-43. Among Independents Republicans are at 29-59, and Democrats are at 43-46.

6. Perhaps the most interesting finding is that the survey shows that Americans prefer tax cuts over increased government spending by almost a 3:1 margin to get us out of the recession. They asked the question two different ways. First was contrasting increased government spending versus reducing taxes on business. In that matchup 22% said increased government spending and 59% said reduced taxes for business. Among Independents that margin increased to 13-65. Even Democrats slightly preferred the cutting business taxes by a 40-43 margin. The second way the question was posed was contrasting increasing government spending versus reducing taxes. In that form 16% of the electorate preferred increasing government spending and 62% said cutting taxes. Among Independents it was 13-57, and among Democrats it was 20-59. To quote the CBS press release on the survey:

“There is evidence Americans might accept some of what the Republicans in Congress are proposing. Given achoice between higher government spending and tax cuts for business, Americans choose tax cuts: 59% say that is a better approach towards trying to end the recession.”

To view a PDF of the excerpt from the CBS News poll, click here.

The truth is, voters don’t want to hear why the other guy is bad. They want to know why you are a better choice. People want hear how candidates will govern, how they will solve problems and what they really stand for.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) put it this way: “Wal-Mart doesn’t get ahead by attacking Sears but by offering better value.” In the past two elections, Republicans failed to win over voters because they failed to tell them how they would address their concerns.

The GOP has spent the past 10 years and hundreds of millions of dollars trying to drive up Democrats’ negatives. Sometimes they succeeded, but rather than solidifying the GOP’s majority coalition, over time, this self-defeating strategy made it permanently vulnerable. Republicans found themselves with razor-thin victories, no mandate to govern and growing unfavorable ratings.

Rothenberg also argued that Congressional Republicans were forced to employ a negative attack strategy because sitting presidents and presidential nominees define a party, not Congressional candidates. He’s half right.

Yes, President George W. Bush’s job approval was a significant drag on the ticket. But it is possible for a ruling party to overcome an unpopular incumbent. Just ask France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy, who managed to win election despite the huge unpopularity of fellow party member and former President Jacques Chirac.

He did it by making a clean break with Chirac’s policies and offering up a positive agenda of his own. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), however, failed to convince voters that he had a viable plan to deal with an increasingly troubled economy. Instead, he predictably fell back on a politics-as-usual attack strategy to define Obama rather than define himself and his vision to voters.

Instead of focusing on the merits of his own tax plan or trying to make his health care plan comprehensible, his campaign relied on unserious, negative ads like the “sex ed ad” questioning Obama’s character. It didn’t work.

As Daniel Finkelstein observed in the London Times about the McCain campaign’s attack spots, “They are ignoring a golden rule of politics. Your attack ads also shape views of you. Whether or not the [the Britney Spears/Paris Hilton ad] makes Mr. Obama look smaller, it certainly makes John McCain look smaller.”

In fact, it is possible to overcome a negative national political environment and do it without resorting to harsh personal attacks.

Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.) is a good example. Rothenberg attributes his victory to negative attacks on his Democratic opponent. I did the polling for this race and saw the dynamics in play up close.

Souder spent 2007 and the first half of 2008 building his positives with voters. During the campaign, he spent half his time reinforcing those positives and the other half defining a choice by drawing a fair and effective contrast with his opponent’s qualifications and issue positions.

This was not, however, a traditional “negative” attack campaign. First, it was a balanced approach of positive and contrast tactics. Second, Souder’s campaign reflected the distinction between a contrast ad that defines a substantive choice between two candidates based on issues or résumés as opposed to over-the-top negative spots questioning a candidate’s integrity and morals in a personal way.

In recent losing elections, we’ve seen more of the latter, and it has negatively impacted the Republican brand. Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) was ill-served when his campaign ran a spot that implied now-Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), as state treasurer, had invested state funds in organizations with alleged ties to terrorists. It was ridiculous, and it backfired.

The same could be said of the famous “blond bimbo” ad against Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in the 2006 Tennessee Senate race, aired by the Republican National Committee and without now-Sen. Bob Corker’s knowledge. Internal polling showed the ad cost Corker his lead and made the race much more competitive than it should have been.

The attack on now-Sen. Jim Webb (D) in the Virginia Senate race as a purveyor of pornography and the “godless” ad used in Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R-N.C.) losing reelection battle are still more egregious examples of the kind of attack media Republicans must reject.

For too many operatives, when it comes to campaign strategy, defining the opponent isn’t one option; it’s the only option. But there is another way. We’ve seen a model that worked for Republicans — the energy issue — even in the very negative political environment of the past year.

By coalescing behind a strong idea, Republicans were able to win this issue, not through an attack strategy designed to define Democrats but by positively arguing their case to the American people for an “all-of-the-above” energy policy. It was a good first step on the road back from the wilderness that we can learn from.

Republicans won’t regain a majority coalition until they reject attack-based campaigns and prove Republicans are ready to govern by first winning issues.

Party ID and Ideology 1984-2008 [PDF]

Kristen Soltis: Poll Vaulting [American Spectator]