The Winston Group is a strategy and research firm dedicated to making ideas matter.

The Hill: “Trump launches media offensive to rehab image”

by Emily O'Connor

The Hill takes a look at Donald Trump’s seeming change of tactics recently in addressing the media and some of his past comments, and the Winston Group’s David Winston comments:

“This reflects his campaign’s understanding of the obvious — that his high unfavorability rating is unsustainable in the general election,” said David Winston, who served as Newt Gingrich’s pollster for the former House Speaker’s 2012 presidential run.

“The first step you take in correcting that is reaching out to groups to address certain perceptions about him,” Winston said. “It will be a challenge, but it’s not clear that views about him have completely hardened yet, so there’s opportunity here.”

…And an April poll from Gallup found that 70 percent of women view Trump unfavorably, with only 23 percent saying they had a positive view of him.

“That’s a huge problem and a terrible place to be,” said Winston. “Women make up a majority of the electorate. At this point, the best asset Trump and Clinton have is how unpopular the other candidate is.”

For more, head here.

WashPo: “Trump’s improbable coup leaves Republican Party in an identity crisis”

by Emily O'Connor

In an article discussing what a Trump nomination means for the Republican party, the WG’s David Winston comments on the challenge of creating a majority coalition:

“The question is whether Trump can put together a majority coalition with unfavorable ratings in the mid-60s,” said veteran GOP pollster David Winston. “Granted, Clinton is in the mid-50s with her ratings, but he has to define a plan to get his unfavorable numbers down. If he can’t, it’ll be a big problem.”

For more, head here.

LA Times OpEd: “Never say #NeverTrump”

by Emily O'Connor

Commenting in an LA Times column by Doyle McManus, the WG’s David Winston lays out challenges for Republicans in the election ahead – Trump’s unfavorables, particularly among women, and Congressional Republican candidates’ potential need for ticket-splitting voters and a sense of direction for those candidates.

“The structural problem of the Trump candidacy is his ‘unfavorable’ numbers,” GOP pollster David Winston told me. “Among women, who — did I mention? — are the majority of the electorate, his unfavorables are in the 70s. Those aren’t easy numbers to turn around, particularly when a candidate has had as much exposure as Trump.”

…In some states, candidates “are going to depend on people who are voting for [Democrat Hillary] Clinton to switch sides and vote for the other party” when it comes to Congress, Winston noted. “That’s hard to do.”

…“House candidates are going to need a sense of direction, and they don’t necessarily want to rely on Trump to provide it,” Winston said. If Trump appears headed for defeat, the Ryan program could give them a lifeline.

Yet –

…“Everybody writes off a party after it has a bad election,” Winston said. “After 2008, when Obama won, people said it was the end of the Republican Party. But two years later we had 2010 and won a majority in the House.”

For more, head here.

WashEx: “2016 begins at first Fox debate”

by Emily O'Connor

The first Republican primary debate is approaching on August 6th. How important will it be for GOP candidates?

Pollster David Winston, who is not affiliated with any candidate, said the early primary fight has provided a “great field” of candidates. But the rubber hits the road in August, when the first Fox debate will be held, followed by CNN’s in September.

“That’s what matters most,” Winston said. “It is a defining moment. It’s huge.”

For more, head to the rest of the story here.

ABC News: “Americans Split on Whether Clinton Cares About Their Needs”

by Emily O'Connor

In recent polls, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s ratings are down on measures such as whether Americans feel she “cares about people like you” or “understands the problems of people like you.”

Republican pollster David Winston said the intense early focus on such issues gives Republicans an opening to define the terms of the debate over the direction each party wants to take the country.

“If she doesn’t have a product on the shelf — her ideas — what’s the point?” Winston asked.

Read the rest of the story here.

LA Times Op-Ed: “Fox Appoints itself a GOP primary gatekeeper”

by Emily O'Connor

Fox News recently announced the rules for inclusion in the first GOP primary debate, which it will host this August – ten candidates will be allowed, chosen by their standings in the latest national polls. The WG’s David Winston comments on the importance of this debate:

“That first debate is huge…That’s going to be a real sorting-out moment. Any candidate who can’t get into the first debate will be at a significant disadvantage.”

“I tell Republicans that Fox News is generally the most efficient way, in terms of time spent, to reach conservative Republicans — even more efficient than their local news.”

For more on the upcoming debate, read the rest of the column.

Bloomberg Politics: “He Won Two, But Obama’s Speech Shows There’s Always a Next Election”

by Emily O'Connor

How might the policies President Obama addressed in the State of the Union speech affect the 2016 elections? The WG’s David Winston comments in Bloomberg Politics:

Republicans argue that Obama’s economic policies will only hurt Clinton. They say the results of the 2014 midterm elections, in which Republicans won back the Senate and expanded on their majority in the House, repudiated those policies. “It puts her in a very difficult position,” Republican pollster David Winston said of Hillary Clinton. “The public has said in exit polls they don’t agree with that argument. And she’s supposed to carry that ball?”

For the rest of the story, click here.

Washington Examiner: “Obama’s leftward lurch poisons hope for consensus”

by Emily O'Connor

Ahead of the 2015 State of the Union address, the WG’s David Winston tells the Washington Examiner what he’ll be looking for, and how voters’ feelings about the role of government have changed:

“I’ll be looking at the State of the Union address to see if [Obama] understood what happened in the last election or whether he just ignores it,” said David Winston, a veteran GOP pollster. “When a party ignores when the American people have spoken, it’s usually a dangerous moment for that party.”

Winston cited exit polls in the last four elections since 2008 when Obama was voted in office. When it comes to whether government should do more or less to solve the nation’s problems, Winston’s polls show a sharp swing against government solutions since Obama was first elected.

In 2008, amid a real estate correction that threatened large financial institutions, 51 percent of those surveyed said they believed government should do more to solve the country’s problems. In 2010, that number shrank to 38 percent. Support for more government intervention in markets was 44 percent in 2012 and 41 percent in 2014.

Read the rest of the story here.

WashEx: “Elections an opportunity, not a mandate, for GOP, polling shows”

by Emily O'Connor

The Washington Examiner highlighted the WG’s post-election analysis “Fix It” in an article describing why the 2014 midterms provided Republicans with an opportunity, rather than a mandate:

“It’s important to understand that the election showed the public is willing to listen to Republican ideas but voters have to be sold on each individual idea first,” Winston explained. “Republicans do not have carte blanche, but they have an electorate that is willing to listen to Republican ideas to fix the country. That is a unique opportunity for any political party.”

…“The brand challenge for Republicans is to turn winning the issues into favorables and expand their midterm majority coalition,” Winston said in his report. “Newt Gingrich once said: ‘Walmart doesn’t get ahead by attacking Sears, but by offering better value.’ That captures the Republican challenge going forward.”

Read the rest of the article here.

Read the stresstips.com version here.

Get the rest of our post-election analysis here.

Washington Examiner: “Survey: Hillary Clinton too liberal for most voters”

by Emily O'Connor

This week, a finding from the Winston Group’s post-election survey was featured in the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” column –

Ideological Spectrum - 2014

 

Pollster David Winston provided Secrets with his latest analysis that included his trademark political sliding scale that for the first time tested the public’s opinion of Clinton’s political pulse.

He found that on a scale of 1 for liberal to 9 for conservative, voters put Clinton at 3.6, to the left of the House Democratic Caucus and just shy of Obama’s 3.37, the most liberal on the chart. Voters put themselves at a right-of-center 5.79, a yawning 2 points away from Clinton…

“Looking at 2016, the ideological spectrum should [be] concerning for Democrats, especially the likely front-runner Hillary Clinton. The good news for her is voters put her to the right of President Obama. The bad news for her is voters put her significantly to the left of where they put themselves ideologically,” Winston said.

Read the whole story here, or take a look at everything else we covered in our post-election analysis.

Older Posts »