“I don’t think there’s been a door more open for an opposition party to do well – certainly better than 1994,” the last time the Republicans took control of both houses, said David Winston, a pollster who advises the House Republican leadership.

Access the entire article at washingtonpost.com

“The purpose of a political party is to not to win elections but to prove you are ready to govern,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster, quoting British Prime Minister David Cameron. “One of the elements that has to be addressed is the fact that people remember Republicans from 2006. The electorate was not satisfied. They weren’t getting things done. They fired them. Republicans have to address those concerns.”

To read more, click to bnd.com

Pollster David Winston believes Republicans have better prospects in 2010 than they did in 1994. “This administration has opened the door wide for Republicans,” he says. “It’s even more open than it was in 1994.”

But Winston says Republicans “have the challenge of what people remember from 2006,” when Republicans were voted out of office in Congress. And they must answer what Winston calls the “why us?” question. They need to tell voters “what you’re going to get if we have a Republican majority.”

To read more, turn to weeklystandard.com

“Ultimately, it will be a race about content,” says Mr. Winston. “Especially now, given concern on the Republican side about where this country is headed, voters want to hear how are you going to govern and where would you take this country.

To read the full breakdown of possible candidates, click to alaskadispatch.com

Congressional Democrats and the White House “are trying to deal with these other issues when there is only one issue in the room: jobs and the economy,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster.

To read more, click to washingtonpost.com

“Part of the dynamic here is the way President Obama and congressional Democrats govern ha[s] opened this door wide open for Republicans, but the public at this point isn’t just simply saying, ‘Look at how bad [Democrats] are.’ They want to know what you’re going to do — why should they vote for you?”

To read more, turn to thehill.com

To read the report and check out Pew’s methodology and toplines, go to pewresearch.org

“What’s our plan to create jobs and grow the economy?” said GOP pollster David Winston, who is advising the House Republican leadership on the effort. “That’s really what we have to address. We need command focus.”

To read more, turn to washingtonpost.com

” ‘What is this going to do to grow the economy and create jobs?’ ” Winston said voters would ask. “If everybody’s going to point fingers at each other, that’s not what people want to hear.”

To read the full article, click to washingtonpost.com

This week, Kristen chats with Alex Lundry from Target Point and Kevin Madden from Dyke & Associates about the “Golf or Gulf” website, constituents breaking away from Democrats, Scott Brown’s backing of the financial reform bill, the word “liberal,” and the Apple fans.

Winston argues that the GOP should articulate a specific plan, but he also cautions against putting too much into it.

“One of the reason the door has opened for Republicans is that President Obama has focused on so many other things,” he added. “If you create an 87-point agenda, you’re making the same mistake.”

To read more, click to latimes.com

“It dwarfs everything,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “It’s sort of like looking at a house and there’s all these things that need repair, but if the roof’s on fire, all these things are secondary. Jobs and the economy are the equivalent of the fire on the roof.”

To read the entire article, click on www.tampabay.com

“People have lost confidence in what the Democrats are doing,” said Republican strategist David Winston. “But that is not enough of a reason to vote for Republicans. Republicans still have to answer the question, ‘Why us?’ “

To read the entire article, turn to http://online.wsj.com

TRI gets a bit of a change of pace this week with some new segments. Kristen chats with Rachel Hoff from the Foreign Policy Initiative, and The Winston Group’s own Nicki Kurokawa. Topics include this week’s big stories like Kagan’s hearings, Russian Spies, the Kill Switch Bill, and Summer TV, as well as a new section, Blogger Beat.

Most folks I talk to say that in order for Rubio to have a fighting chance against Crist, he needs to bring down Crist’s favorables. Of course, that strategy might yield a slight bump in standing, but I don’t believe it is nearly enough to win. Voters already assume politicians do what they need to do to get elected. They already assume Crist has made politically motivated moves in this race. And they vote for him anyways. The problem isn’t Crist’s favorables, the problem is Rubio’s neutral brand image among independents. And the way for Rubio, Crist, or Meek (or any candidate in any race, for that matter) to build that brand is to become the leader on the issue of the economy and jobs.

To read Soltis’ entire piece, turn to pollster.com

Of course, Obama isn’t on the ballot this November. But his ratings contribute to what Winston calls the public’s “overall sense of the ability to govern.” From that perspective, Obama’s troubles are the Democrats’ troubles.

To read more about the poll numbers and Republican response to them, read the full article at washingtonexaminer.com

Boehner released new data produced by Republican pollster David Winston. The survey of 1,000 registered voters just before the Memorial Day recess showed that 62 percent believed that by not passing a budget, Congress missed an opportunity to “rein in spending.”

Access the full article (with an account) on rollcall.com

Republicans are hanging their words partially on a Winston Group poll, which showed that 62 percent of those surveyed believe that Congress’s failure to pass a budget means that it is “missing an opportunity to rein in government spending and provide fiscal discipline that economists say is needed to create jobs and grow the economy.”

To read the full article, turn to
politico.com

“For the election, part of what you want to do is contrast what would happen if you were governing,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who advises party leaders in Congress. “The Democrats and President Obama spent months talking about health care, and Republicans say they should have spent that time working on jobs.”

Access the full article at washingtonpost.com

David Winston, a GOP pollster who worked on the 1994 Contract with America Republican majorities, says the 2010 elections offer a “real opportunity,” but so does 2012. The reason: The Bush tax cuts expire starting later this year, and the economy could get socked. “I don’t view this year as a one-shot deal.”

To check out the fill Washington Whispers post, go to usnews.com

“Branstad is proving that his credentials and an economic focus as a conservative puts together a large majority coalition,” said David Winston, a national Republican pollster. “It’s a good position for him to be in, and positions him well for the general election.”

To read the full article, click on desmoinesregister.com

“This isn’t a college debate about who made the best points,” said Republican strategist David Winston, who has seen tea party candidates rising as they focus their arguments on deficit spending and federal overreach. “If they’re going to win races, they have to prove they can build a coalition.”

To read the full article, turn to latimes.com

But GOP strategists are careful to note that while Palin, a controversial figure in her own party, has inspired some, the new class of conservative female candidates has largely been motivated by the economy and fervent opposition to the Obama administration’s agenda.
“I certainly don’t think that Sarah Palin has had nothing to do with this,” Soltis says, “but it is the huge concerns about the economy and unemployment that are energizing people across the board — including Republican women.”

To read the entire article, click on npr.org

“It’s a remarkable situation, given where things were a year ago, where Republicans clearly have an opportunity to do really well,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who concentrates on Congressional races. “The door is open in terms of potential. But we have to answer the question, Why us?”

To read the full article, go to nytimes.com

“There’s a certain level of infrastructure that’s certainly important,” says David Winston, a Republican pollster. “But ultimately, it’s the broader message and the American people’s sense of who they want to have govern the country that matters.”

To read the full story, turn to CSMonitor.com

“I’m sure he would like us to spend all our time on health care, but we’re not going to do that,” said Winston, a longtime adviser to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“The No. 1 issue in the country is jobs and the economy, and I’m sure he’d love Republicans to take their eye off that,” Winston said.

Read the full story at desmoinesregister.com

However, David Winston, a GOP pollster in Washington, contends that for Democrats in moderate, swing districts such as Kilroy, Driehaus and Boccieri, the health-care bill does mean trouble, in part because of the overall political climate.

“You voted for a package people didn’t want and, two, you didn’t focus on the issue they really care about, which is jobs,” he said.

To read more, click to dispatchpolitics.com

“Their choice was to pass bad legislation or prove they’re incapable of governing,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who works closely with the party’s House and Senate leadership. Moreover, he said, the effort was off point; by far the greatest concern of most voters is the nation’s stubbornly high unemployment rate.

To read more, go to latimes.com

“Obama’s not on the ballot, but Pelosi’s role as Speaker is,” said GOP pollster David Winston. “She’s up.”

Read more: politico.com

“The way some of the polls have worked is that they cherry-pick the positive items and leave the negative items out, which creates what I would call a false positive,” says David Winston a Republican pollster.

Read more on washingtonexaminer.com

“One of the problems that Democrats have had is they understood late that they’ve been on the wrong issue. This has been about jobs and unemployment. When you have three months of unemployment 10 percent or higher, the public is unhappy.”

To read the complete article, turn to theKansas City Starwebsite.

But David Winston, a political consultant who advises Congressional Republican leaders, said the unemployment rate was the most important indicator for voters assessing Mr. Obama’s performance.

“If this number doesn’t significantly improve, that’s going to be a negative for him and for his party,” Mr. Winston said.

Access the full article here: nytimes.com

“I think the conservative brand is generally fine,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “But the Republican brand has difficulty at this point. And there’s no question that, until the party stops being the opposition party and starts being the alternative party, it’s not going to help its brand.”

To read more, turn to DesMoinesRegister.com

David Winston, a pollster who advises the Republican leaders in Congress, said that when populism is married to a positive agenda that gives voters a concrete alternative to the status quo, it can alter the landscape, as it did when Republicans captured the House in 1994.

“The challenge is not tapping into a populist environment, it’s creating an alternative that brings about the next political shift,” he said.

To read more of Stevenson’s article, turn to nytimes.com

Last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee called a meeting with activists on the right, including religious conservatives, to discuss the lessons of New York 23. “Any time you have a loss like we did in 2008, there’s a debate about how the party should go forward,” says David Winston, the pollster for congressional Republicans. “But New York 23 showed that that debate could be poisonous.”

“Faith-Based Challenges Show a New Rift in the GOP”: US News and World Report

“Any time you have unemployment this high, it is the number one story, whether it’s being written about or not,” says David Winston, a Republican pollster who for months has urged GOP officeholders to focus steadily on the issue.

To read more of the article, click on washingtonexaminer.com

“This is not a simplistic problem,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “You watched Democrats go through this after the 1994 election. It’s the constant tension within any political party.”

To read the full article, click to the Washington Post’s website.

David Winston, a Republican pollster, agrees. He says that Obama “has to do a kind of reset on health care and figure out if he can regain the initiative on the policy debate, since he clearly lost the month of August.” Winston cautions, however, that Obama has bigger problems than his message. “One of the difficult stress points of a majority coalition is how you keep your base and the people beyond the base together to sustain that coalition. Health care is the first clear example where the two have divergent views.”

If Republicans are heartened by Obama’s summer stumble, that doesn’t mean they should relax. Republicans, says Winston, should work to create a “positive policy choice”…

To read the full article, access nationalreview.com

“This is his big moment in managing a majority coalition,” said David Winston, a GOP strategist who compared Obama’s challenge to those faced — unsuccessfully — by three other former leaders: Clinton on healthcare, President George W. Bush on Social Security, and House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the budget battle that shut down part of the government during Clinton’s first term.

“Every one of them overreached,” said Winston. “But the question is, do they understand they have overreached? And what do they do in response?”

Access the LA Times article here

The Right Idea, Episode 19: Tech & the Obama Administration from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

This week, Kristen Soltis talks to Patrick Ruffi from Engage and Liz Mair from Hynes Communications to address the current administration’s use of technology in terms of messaging, transparency, and other recent efforts.

There are actually Democratic insiders who believe that passing health care reform is more politically important going into the congressional elections than even the economy. In contrast, Republican pollster David Winston, who advises the congressional GOP leadership, persuasively argues, “This is ultimately going to be an election about jobs. And there’s going to be one number that people will follow – and that’s the unemployment rate.”

Access the full blogpost

Her task now is to establish her own credibility on a range of voter issues. Her expertise on the crucial issue of energy gives her a good opportunity to join the current political debate. Had she focused on her energy bona fides during last year’s presidential election, she might have had a better shot at quieting critics.

Read the full post here: “Room for Debate”: What’s Sarah Palin’s Political Future?

The GOP’s Challenge to Win Back Young Voters (Huffington Post)

The Right Idea, Ep. 12 – Republican Identification from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

Kristen Soltis, Jill Bandes and Jon Henke continue to discuss Arlen Specter’s switch from the Republican party to the Democrat party and its implications, as well as questions of how conservatism should be defined.

“Clearly the Democrats want to portray the Republicans as the ‘Party of No’ and the challenge for Republicans is how do they become an effective opposition party at the same time defining a clear choice?” said David Winston, a prominent strategist and pollster who works closely with the congressional Republican leadership. “Once people see the Republicans defining a choice, the ‘Party of No’ goes away.”

Read more of CNN’s analysis on CNNPolitics.com

Moira Bagley, former press secretary of the RNC, and John Feehery of thefeeherytheory.com, join Kristen in a discussion about the government playing CEO, the free market, and regulations.

The first episode of The Winston Group’s new podcast is up! “The Right Idea” is a video podcast that comes out twice a week featuring discussion of both current events and long-term strategy with some of Washington’s brightest young minds in politics and policy.

This week, Kristen Soltis talks to Matt Moon from The Tax Foundation and Nicole Kurokawa from the Cato Institute, about Obama’s budget proposals.

AU School of Public Affairs “What Do We Expect From Our Government?” Conference

For the past six weeks, Democrats and Republicans have been engaged in the biggest, riskiest, most costly game of political speed chess in the nation’s history.
A chess game starts with the “opening,” a series of moves that define the basic structure and direction the game is likely to take.

Sometimes chess players will begin with an unexpected opening to throw the opponent off. Then they execute a series of moves that takes the game back to a more familiar opening. That’s called transposition.

By presenting an unexpected opening before returning to the familiar, the player hopes his opponent’s moves will be less sharp.

This has clearly been Team Obama’s opening.

During the campaign, Barack Obama talked about creating a different kind of Washington, reducing partisanship, welcoming ideas “wherever they came from,” getting rid of earmarks, banning lobbyists from his administration and ensuring transparency.

During the transition, Obama made moves toward the political center with some moderate Cabinet appointments and statements.

Once in office, however, what looked like real change quickly transposed into the traditional Democratic liberal opening.

Obama handed over responsibility for writing the stimulus package to Hill Democrats, tolerated the exclusion of Republicans from the process, nominated lobbyists for key positions and looked the other way when his promised waiting period for signing legislation went by the boards — and that was just the first two weeks after the inauguration.

This was followed by his “new era of responsibility budget” that saddles the country with massive debt for generations and his decision to abdicate any responsibility for the omnibus budget bill and its 8,500 earmarks. Today, Obama’s transposition is virtually complete.

The Washington battle is back to the old traditional Republican versus Democrat debate, only with much bigger stakes and played at warp speed by Washington standards.

Democrats are once again pushing huge tax and spending increases as Republicans argue just the opposite.

Because they’ve been in this position before and lost, Democrats understand that to win in this center-right country, they must paint this as the direst economic crisis since the Great Depression by scaring people into overcoming their natural skepticism of policies of the far left.

To persuade centrist voters to embrace a leftist agenda, Democrats also have to successfully define the origins of the crisis to their benefit by blaming greedy bankers, the rich and Republicans for not regulating financial institutions.

Republicans counter that it was the Democrats’ social engineering policies at the root of the economic meltdown, pressuring banks to make risky loans and blocking reforms of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2003.

In George Orwell’s “1984,” one party slogan asserted, “He who controls the past, controls the future.” Apt words for Democratic attempts to revise history to push their current agenda.

Ironically, when Obama and Hill Democrats sat down at the table in January, they were in a position to define the game, another chess concept called “initiative.” Whoever moves first has it and game play determines whether it can be sustained or wrested away by the opponent.

But the president has frittered away his initiative. As the markets tank, 401(k)’s disappear and public confidence begins to erode, Obama seems to have forgotten that the country wants seriousness and steadiness from its leaders in times of crisis, not gimmicky summits and photo ops.

By using the crisis to push a left-wing laundry list, he has begun to lose focus on his most serious challenge — the economy.

A radical new cap-and-trade energy policy that will raise the cost of energy on every American, a controversial housing policy and a cut in home mortgage deductions that will cause home values to decline even further are just a few of his proposals for change that have become negative distractions.

And he apparently does have time to worry about Rush Limbaugh. As the Democratic attack on Limbaugh showed, Obama and company clearly don’t know what to do about Wall Street, so they retreated to the kind of partisan politics candidate Obama promised to reject.

Republicans have not yet wrested the initiative away from Obama and Hill Democrats, but they have made progress as seen in survey results.

Support for Obama’s policies now trail his personal support, but if he keeps playing the game for speed and tactical gains, history shows his numbers are likely to shift, possibly quickly. Already, several national surveys put his job approval at less than 60 percent.

Obama needs to rethink his position. He might listen to what film director Stanley Kubrick had to say about the game: “What chess teaches you is that you must sit there calmly and think about whether it’s really a good idea and whether there are other, better ideas.”

Roll Call

The RNC chairman will play a major role in rebuilding the party, said Republican strategist David Winston. During the election, Democrats demonstrated a clear technology and grassroots advantage, harnessing text messages and social- networking sites to collect more than 13 million addresses and raise half a billion dollars.

“The election of this particular chair, given the loss that just happened, is very important,” Winston said. “The key is electing someone who understands how to rebuild the majority coalition.”

Bloomberg.com: Republican Battle for Party Chief Pits Leaders, Base