Kristen Soltis chats with Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com and Patrick Ruffini from Engage about the latest primaries, the Ground Zero mosque, moveon.org and some big changes for pollster.com and engage (engagedc.com).

Pollster David Winston believes Republicans have better prospects in 2010 than they did in 1994. “This administration has opened the door wide for Republicans,” he says. “It’s even more open than it was in 1994.”

But Winston says Republicans “have the challenge of what people remember from 2006,” when Republicans were voted out of office in Congress. And they must answer what Winston calls the “why us?” question. They need to tell voters “what you’re going to get if we have a Republican majority.”

To read more, turn to weeklystandard.com

“Ultimately, it will be a race about content,” says Mr. Winston. “Especially now, given concern on the Republican side about where this country is headed, voters want to hear how are you going to govern and where would you take this country.

To read the full breakdown of possible candidates, click to alaskadispatch.com

“Basically, the public does not think now is the time to increase taxes, by any stretch,” he said. “Ultimately, it’s going to come back to the Democrats to prove that they’re not increasing taxes on small businesses, which, given the number of small businesses that [fall into high income-tax brackets], they’re not going to be able to do.”

To read more, click to thewashingtontimes.com

Congressional Democrats and the White House “are trying to deal with these other issues when there is only one issue in the room: jobs and the economy,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster.

To read more, click to washingtonpost.com

“Part of the dynamic here is the way President Obama and congressional Democrats govern ha[s] opened this door wide open for Republicans, but the public at this point isn’t just simply saying, ‘Look at how bad [Democrats] are.’ They want to know what you’re going to do — why should they vote for you?”

To read more, turn to thehill.com

To read the report and check out Pew’s methodology and toplines, go to pewresearch.org

“What’s our plan to create jobs and grow the economy?” said GOP pollster David Winston, who is advising the House Republican leadership on the effort. “That’s really what we have to address. We need command focus.”

To read more, turn to washingtonpost.com

” ‘What is this going to do to grow the economy and create jobs?’ ” Winston said voters would ask. “If everybody’s going to point fingers at each other, that’s not what people want to hear.”

To read the full article, click to washingtonpost.com

Winston argues that the GOP should articulate a specific plan, but he also cautions against putting too much into it.

“One of the reason the door has opened for Republicans is that President Obama has focused on so many other things,” he added. “If you create an 87-point agenda, you’re making the same mistake.”

To read more, click to latimes.com

Kristen chats with The Washington Examiner’s JP Freire and Slate’s Chris Beam about GOP Chairman Michael Steele’s recent controversial comments on Afghanistan, as well the latest in unemployment reports and DailyKos’ lawsuit with Research 2000 over polling data.

Polls taken during the healthcare debate last year found that senior citizens over 65 were more strongly opposed to the plan than any other age group — but over time, they were joined by middle-aged baby boomers, who became increasingly negative.

“Older voters are worried that the quality of their healthcare could decline,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster. “That opens a door where they’re willing to listen to Republicans. It’s a huge opportunity.”

To read more: click to latimes.com

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner shares his economic outlook and discusses trade with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow. David Winston, of The Winston Group, and Josh Gottheimer, of Burson-Marsteller, share their reactions to Geithner’s comments.

“It dwarfs everything,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “It’s sort of like looking at a house and there’s all these things that need repair, but if the roof’s on fire, all these things are secondary. Jobs and the economy are the equivalent of the fire on the roof.”

To read the entire article, click on www.tampabay.com

“People have lost confidence in what the Democrats are doing,” said Republican strategist David Winston. “But that is not enough of a reason to vote for Republicans. Republicans still have to answer the question, ‘Why us?’ “

To read the entire article, turn to http://online.wsj.com

TRI gets a bit of a change of pace this week with some new segments. Kristen chats with Rachel Hoff from the Foreign Policy Initiative, and The Winston Group’s own Nicki Kurokawa. Topics include this week’s big stories like Kagan’s hearings, Russian Spies, the Kill Switch Bill, and Summer TV, as well as a new section, Blogger Beat.

Most folks I talk to say that in order for Rubio to have a fighting chance against Crist, he needs to bring down Crist’s favorables. Of course, that strategy might yield a slight bump in standing, but I don’t believe it is nearly enough to win. Voters already assume politicians do what they need to do to get elected. They already assume Crist has made politically motivated moves in this race. And they vote for him anyways. The problem isn’t Crist’s favorables, the problem is Rubio’s neutral brand image among independents. And the way for Rubio, Crist, or Meek (or any candidate in any race, for that matter) to build that brand is to become the leader on the issue of the economy and jobs.

To read Soltis’ entire piece, turn to pollster.com

Of course, Obama isn’t on the ballot this November. But his ratings contribute to what Winston calls the public’s “overall sense of the ability to govern.” From that perspective, Obama’s troubles are the Democrats’ troubles.

To read more about the poll numbers and Republican response to them, read the full article at washingtonexaminer.com

Kristen chats with New Media Strategies’ Matt Moon and Engage’s Mindy Finn this week, about recent staff changes in and outside of the White House, border control policies, and why soccer is irrelevant in the US.

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report and Philip Klein of the American Spectator join Kristen for a discussion about Republican women succeeding in recent primaries, who’s to blame for unemployment numbers, and why original concept movies are rare these days.

Boehner released new data produced by Republican pollster David Winston. The survey of 1,000 registered voters just before the Memorial Day recess showed that 62 percent believed that by not passing a budget, Congress missed an opportunity to “rein in spending.”

Access the full article (with an account) on rollcall.com

Republicans are hanging their words partially on a Winston Group poll, which showed that 62 percent of those surveyed believe that Congress’s failure to pass a budget means that it is “missing an opportunity to rein in government spending and provide fiscal discipline that economists say is needed to create jobs and grow the economy.”

To read the full article, turn to
politico.com

“For the election, part of what you want to do is contrast what would happen if you were governing,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who advises party leaders in Congress. “The Democrats and President Obama spent months talking about health care, and Republicans say they should have spent that time working on jobs.”

Access the full article at washingtonpost.com

David Winston, a GOP pollster who worked on the 1994 Contract with America Republican majorities, says the 2010 elections offer a “real opportunity,” but so does 2012. The reason: The Bush tax cuts expire starting later this year, and the economy could get socked. “I don’t view this year as a one-shot deal.”

To check out the fill Washington Whispers post, go to usnews.com

“Branstad is proving that his credentials and an economic focus as a conservative puts together a large majority coalition,” said David Winston, a national Republican pollster. “It’s a good position for him to be in, and positions him well for the general election.”

To read the full article, click on desmoinesregister.com

“This isn’t a college debate about who made the best points,” said Republican strategist David Winston, who has seen tea party candidates rising as they focus their arguments on deficit spending and federal overreach. “If they’re going to win races, they have to prove they can build a coalition.”

To read the full article, turn to latimes.com

But GOP strategists are careful to note that while Palin, a controversial figure in her own party, has inspired some, the new class of conservative female candidates has largely been motivated by the economy and fervent opposition to the Obama administration’s agenda.
“I certainly don’t think that Sarah Palin has had nothing to do with this,” Soltis says, “but it is the huge concerns about the economy and unemployment that are energizing people across the board — including Republican women.”

To read the entire article, click on npr.org

Politics: “Tea Party” is a bit of a loaded term on all sides of the debate. Does that make it hard to get an accurate reading?
Soltis: It depends on the question that you ask. Some pollsters ask “Do you support the Tea Party?” I believe there was a question some months ago, “Do you sympathize with the Tea Party?” We tried to ask a question that was pretty strong, so it was either yes or no, not how you feel about it. We wanted to get the most definite group.

To read the entire interview, go to politicsmagazine.com

“It’s a remarkable situation, given where things were a year ago, where Republicans clearly have an opportunity to do really well,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who concentrates on Congressional races. “The door is open in terms of potential. But we have to answer the question, Why us?”

To read the full article, go to nytimes.com

In 1992, 53 percent of those who backed Perot for president described themselves as moderate, with 27 percent calling themselves conservative and 20 percent liberal, according to the exit polls. Among tea party activists, the Post poll and the CBS-New York Times poll both found that nearly three-quarters called themselves conservative. David Winston, a Republican pollster, pegged the group’s makeup as 65 percent conservative, 26 percent moderate.

Dont be too quick to mistake tea party for Perot movement [The Washington Post].

To be sure, great efforts have been made recently to demonize the Tea Party movement. But polling suggests that the Tea Party movement has not been diminished but, in fact, has grown stronger. The Winston Group found, in three national surveys conducted from December through February and published April 1, that the Tea Party movement is composed of a broad cross-section of the American people — 40 to 50 percent of its supporters are non-Republicans. Indeed, one-third of self-identified Democrats say they support the Tea Party movement.

Douglas E. Schoen and Patrick H. Caddell – How the Democrats can avoid a November bloodbath [The Washington Post]

I just wrote a long post on “The Unofficial Apple Weblog” detailing the five ways in which Keynote for the iPad misses the mark. Check it out!

One app that I (along with a growing contingent online) am incredibly disappointed with is produced by the one company who shouldn’t need more time to learn the device — Apple, Inc. I’m referring to Keynote, Apple’s presentation application. Keynote for the iPad was billed as a full-featured presentation package, offering the same features and full compatibility with the wonderful desktop version. As a Keynote addict, I was incredibly excited to see how this program would be redefined by a giant touch screen. 

After using the app since launch day, I’m sad to report that Apple has made some big mistakes with the iPad version of Keynote. I’ve noticed what many concerned and angry commenters on Apple’s support forums have also noticed: the iPad corrupts and changes many Keynote presentations imported from a Mac, lacks support for custom fonts, and overall is a stripped down version of its desktop relative. I was frustrated to experience these problems because I had been so excited for the iPad’s Keynote potential.

“There’s a certain level of infrastructure that’s certainly important,” says David Winston, a Republican pollster. “But ultimately, it’s the broader message and the American people’s sense of who they want to have govern the country that matters.”

To read the full story, turn to CSMonitor.com

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

There are two ways that one can read the Winston Group poll on the political orientation of those who consider themselves a part of the tea-party movement. One way — the headline that The Hill very reasonably chose — is that about 40 percent of tea-partiers are independents or Democrats. The other — obviously every bit as mathematically valid — is that 60 percent are Republicans. Either way, the results are more interesting thansurprising, as they are broadly in line with previous polling on the subject — as well as what I think we can reasonably infer about the movement.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Teacup Half-Full.

“It’s a good sample size,” David Winston, polling director of the Winston Group that did the poll for an education advocacy group, told the Ballot Box blog of The Hill newspaper.

The Tea Party adherents broke down 28% independent, 17% Democrat and only 57% Republican. Not coincidentally, this bipartisan breakdown has been the way that Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin has often described movement members as “commonsense Americans” worried and….

…angered by the over-reaching one-party control of Democrats in Washington these last 15 months, rooted initially in opposition to Obama’s $787 billion government economic stimulus package.

Read the full story at latimesblogs.com

WASHINGTON DC (April 1, 2010) — Tea Party activists may be ardent supporters of economic conservatism but are similar to the overall electorate when it comes to economic priorities, according to the findings of a new report released by The Winston Group today on the political movement.

In one of the most extensive looks to date at just who Tea Party activists are, how they think, and the ideas that matter to them, the report found that 17% of the people polled considered themselves “part of the Tea Party movement” and more than four in ten Tea Party members said they were either Independents or Democrats.

In three national surveys, done for New Models from December 2009 through February 2010, 57% of Tea Party members called themselves Republicans, another 28% said they were Independents, and 13% were Democrats. Two-thirds of Tea Party members identify as conservatives but 26% say they are moderate and 8% described themselves as liberal

The study also found Tea Party members are more likely to be male by a 56-44% margin, slightly older than the electorate as a whole and middle income earners. When it comes to issues, the research found that Tea Party activists espouse a strong economic conservatism.

According to David Winston, president of The Winston Group,

“Our research shows that Tea Party activists’ top concern – economy and jobs — mirrors the majority of voters in the country.”

In the February 2010 New Models study, 36% of Tea Party members name the economy and jobs as their top issue with national deficit and spending close behind at 21% — over twice as high as the overall electorate. However, when given the choice in the January survey, Tea Party members favored “reducing unemployment to 5%” over balancing the budget 63-32%, which closely reflects the overall electorate (64-32%).

While Tea Party members prioritize job creation over deficit spending and tax issues, they value economically conservative policies because they view them as a means to reducing unemployment and improving the economy. Over 4 out of 5 Tea Party members (85%) say tax cuts for small business will create more jobs than increased government spending on infrastructure while the overall electorate prefers tax cuts by a more modest 61-31% margin.

Topline results [PDF]

Full analysis [PDF]

Tea Party Memo April 2010

“I’m sure he would like us to spend all our time on health care, but we’re not going to do that,” said Winston, a longtime adviser to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“The No. 1 issue in the country is jobs and the economy, and I’m sure he’d love Republicans to take their eye off that,” Winston said.

Read the full story at desmoinesregister.com

However, David Winston, a GOP pollster in Washington, contends that for Democrats in moderate, swing districts such as Kilroy, Driehaus and Boccieri, the health-care bill does mean trouble, in part because of the overall political climate.

“You voted for a package people didn’t want and, two, you didn’t focus on the issue they really care about, which is jobs,” he said.

To read more, click to dispatchpolitics.com

“Their choice was to pass bad legislation or prove they’re incapable of governing,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who works closely with the party’s House and Senate leadership. Moreover, he said, the effort was off point; by far the greatest concern of most voters is the nation’s stubbornly high unemployment rate.

To read more, go to latimes.com

“Obama’s not on the ballot, but Pelosi’s role as Speaker is,” said GOP pollster David Winston. “She’s up.”

Read more: politico.com

“The way some of the polls have worked is that they cherry-pick the positive items and leave the negative items out, which creates what I would call a false positive,” says David Winston a Republican pollster.

Read more on washingtonexaminer.com

“One of the problems that Democrats have had is they understood late that they’ve been on the wrong issue. This has been about jobs and unemployment. When you have three months of unemployment 10 percent or higher, the public is unhappy.”

To read the complete article, turn to theKansas City Starwebsite.

But David Winston, a political consultant who advises Congressional Republican leaders, said the unemployment rate was the most important indicator for voters assessing Mr. Obama’s performance.

“If this number doesn’t significantly improve, that’s going to be a negative for him and for his party,” Mr. Winston said.

Access the full article here: nytimes.com

With Apple pushing the iPhone as a full-featured smartphone for the enterprise, you’d think it would work perfectly with its own enterprise-focused Snow Leopard Server. You’d be wrong. The iPhone even functions better in an Exchange environment.

Read at Ars Technica

The Right Idea, Episode 36: Government 2.0 from The Winston Group on Vimeo.

TRI returns with Mark Drapeau and Meagan Carberry, this time chatting with Kristen about the government’s use of new media and how new media will allow citizen journalism to influence transparency in government.

If Obama’s numbers continue to slide, his policy agenda is at serious risk. Don’t think for one moment that members of the House and Senate don’t pay attention to these national polls. They do, especially those who find themselves in competitive races. Equally important, their own internal state or district polls will likely also have a presidential job approval question. Whether Obama is under 50% or under water back home could and, in many cases, will impact their voting behavior in D.C.

To read all of David’s article, turn to pollster.com

“The majority of people view it as an economic issue,” said David Winston, who has polled for the House and Senate Republican leadership on the issue.

To access the entire article, turn to LATimes.com

“I think the conservative brand is generally fine,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “But the Republican brand has difficulty at this point. And there’s no question that, until the party stops being the opposition party and starts being the alternative party, it’s not going to help its brand.”

To read more, turn to DesMoinesRegister.com