The Winston Group is a strategy and research firm dedicated to making ideas matter.

Powerline Blog: Romney’s Improved Standing

by Lisa Mathias

An October 6th post writes about the result of Romney’s successful first presidential debate, and turns to the WG’s David Winston’s analysis that we posted on October 5th. One part of the analysis in the blog post delves into Winston’s analysis of a post-debate discussion held by Democracy Corps:

Democracy Corps also conducted a post-debate discussion with 45 swing voters in Colorado. Its results were largely consistent with those of CBS and CNN. Democracy Corps concluded, though, that “this debate did not emerge as the game-changer the Romney campaign needed.”

But Winston is not persuaded:

Most of the data in the focus group doesn’t support this conclusion and was more in line with the two quantitative studies by CBS and CNN which showed clear movement. Their rationale was that no supporter of President Obama in the focus group moved to Governor Romney.
Looking at the numbers it looks like this represented about 14 people (out of 45), a small group to make such a definitive conclusion. This is a quantitative conclusion based on qualitative data from 45 people in Denver preselected to match certain demographic criteria. Focus groups can provide possible theories; they cannot provide quantitative conclusions.

So Democracy Corps was spinning.

To read more, turn to powerlineblog.com

Post Debate Research – CNN, CBS, Democracy Corps

by Lisa Mathias

A look a the post debate research: CNN, CBS and Democracy Corps…

Post Debate Research – CNN, CBS, Democracy Corps

WSJ: Post-Debate Analysis: ‘The Game Is On’?

by Lisa Mathias

Following the first presidential debate last night, the WG’s David Winston wrote his reactions for the Washington Wire blog on the Wall Street Journal, with an overall praise of Romney’s “looking forward” toward what he plans to do, as opposed to using the “Are you better off 4 years ago?” approach:

The president focused on the past rather than looking forward – and that hurt him. Gov. Romney began to propose a future and took steps toward defining that – and it was a positive contrast.
As a result, Gov. Romney succeeded, and listening to the immediate media coverage, that seemed to be a universal consensus. At a broader level, Gov. Romney’s performance as a center-right candidate has the potential to build the natural center-right coalition in the country. The question is what does he do with this momentum?

To read more, turn to blogs.wsj.com.

WSJ: Political Wisdom: Final Advice for Obama, Romney

by Lisa Mathias

In today’s Washington Wire column in the Wall Street Journal, The WG’s David Winston offers his advice to President Obama and Mitt Romney on a few things they should consider before the first presidential debate, especially when thinking about social media:

It is probably that social media and the ability to re-share video of debate highlights means that many Americans will re-watch the most important part of tonight’s debate if that they didn’t have a chance to watch it live. If either candidate has a truly defining moment tonight, it will be watched and re-watched multiple times between now and election day, all the more reason for both candidates to carefully consider what they say tonight.

To read more, click to blogs.wsj.com.

Politico.com: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls

by Lisa Mathias

In today’s politico.com, Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns go behind the polling industry among the rise in popularity behind sites like unskewedpolls.com, where GOP politicos and pundits are relying on polls re-weighted for a higher turnout of Republican respondents. The WG’s David Winston explains that pollsters need to help the public better understand Party ID in polls:

GOP pollster David Winston, whose firm produced a poll recently showing Obama with a 2-point lead nationally, said pollsters should strive to explain their results to the public in the setting of the partisan sample their surveys turn up: “When you come back with results, you should make sure that you are effectively explaining that ballot test in the context of the demographics contained within the survey.”

Read more: politico.com

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