In a web exclusive for Vanity Fair, Todd Purdum chronicles John Boehner’s progression from tavern owner’s son to Minority Leader of House. David Winston provided some insight into what Boehner currently faces, especially as the midterm elections draw near:
“…sustaining a majority coalition is really hard, because the people who elect you leader tend to be the base, but the people who elect you Speaker tend to come from the swing districts. Governing means there are significant problems this country faces, and if you don’t have things to address those problems, you’re going to be a very short-lived majority. And I think you’ve seen Boehner being pretty aggressive in saying that, ultimately, there have to be things to vote for.”
To read the full article, turn to vanityfair.com
Karen Tumulty’s recent article for the Washington Post revealed that high numbers of Democrat voters have turned out for early voting, similarly to what happened in 2006, when Democrats took control of the House and Senate. David Winston states that the group that will determine which direction the election turns, however, is Independents:
“In 1994, there was a flip to the Republicans. In 2006, there was a flip to the Democrats,” said pollster David Winston, who advises House Republicans. “Both of these flips were driven by independents, and that’s likely to be the case here, if it occurs.”
To access the full article, click to washingtonpost.com
Karen Tumulty wrote in this week’s WaPo about the impact that the media has on politics and campaigning, especially with cable networks and the incidence of partisanship according to a network’s content and audience. The lines get blurred in some instances on some shows, and according to David Winston, audiences are not ignorant of any biases on networks and shows:
David Winston, a pollster who advises the House Republican leadership, said the opinion-driven cable shows are so established that “people know what to expect” and “sort of filter what they are looking at.”
To read the full article, turn to washingtonpost.com
Has the number of conservatives in Wisconsin surpassed the number of moderates? That would be the case, according to two different, recent polls conducted statewide. The Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert breaks it down, and turns to David Winston for some explanation:
“What you’re pointing toward is a critical element in understanding where this election is going,” says David Winston, a well-known GOP pollster in Washington, D.C. “Has the electorate moved that much in terms of its ideology? Given what we’ve seen in previous years, based on election-year exit poll surveys, the numbers we’re seeing now are dramatically different. The question is, are they correct?”
The article also includes insight pulled from The WG’s Kristen Soltis, from her recent Huffington Post piece.
To read the entire article on Wisconsin’s electorate, turn to jsonline.com
In an update to the earlier post regarding AP’s new poll out showing results that working-class whites are leaning toward Republicans, which will be important in predicting how November’s elections will pan out. Alan Fram highlights another opinion from David Winston, regarding why this group of voters has shifted preferences:
“Obama ran as a centrist, and clearly he’s not been that,” said GOP pollster David Winston. “People who have been part of our majority coalition are looking to come back to us.”
Read more: denverpost.com
Alan Fram writes about the wave of working-class whites leaning toward Republicans for this year’s mid-term election. A recent AP-GfK poll shows that whites without four-year degrees are preferring Republican candidates, more so than in past elections. David Winston explains why:
One ray of hope for Democrats is that 28 percent of working-class whites in the AP-GfK Poll say they may still switch candidates. Republicans say it’s too late.
“Obama and Democrats have had almost two years to try to get things back on track,” said GOP pollster David Winston.
To access the full article, click to apnews.myway.com
Jeff Greenfield write about the potential “tsunami bearing down on Democrats” come this November, and offers strategy on how they can win in the upcoming election. The WG’s David Winston points out a very important group of voters that Democrats will need to connect with in order to avoid losing seats:
Independents, as Republican strategist David Winston notes, were the key to the GOP takeover of Congress in ’94 and the key to the Democratic takeover in ’06. Right now, they are leaning heavily toward the GOP, and if Democrats cannot win substantial numbers of them back, that thunderstorm will turn back into a tsunami.
To read the full article, go to cbs.com
An excerpt from David’s recent Roll Call op-ed:
Clearly, the Obama administration misread voters. When they asked for change, they weren’t asking for a trilliondollar spending lurch to the left. Despite Obama’s victory, media exit polls have consistently shown that the country remained ideologically where it has been for the past 25 years: center-right.
Read the full piece here: PDF Version